统计预测模型对三峡库区诱发地震预测的应用
|
摘要
通过实地考察并结合前人的研究成果,在地震地质背景研究的基础上,将长江三峡工程坝址至巫山库段划分为5个预测区共12个预测单元,选用8个诱震因素,运用统计预测模型预测了水库诱发地震的可能性及诱发地震震级。结果表明,库水蓄至最高水位,三峡工程坝址至巫山库段中多数预测单元诱发微震和不发生地震的概率值高,无震可能性较大。但九湾溪断层沿线、仙女山断层库段具备诱发3.0～4.5级或4.5～6.0级地震的可能;考虑到龙会观5.1级地震与高桥断裂的关系,预测结果显示高桥断裂沿线具有诱发强烈水库地震(≥6.0级)的可能性,其预测概率值为0.23。
Based on field investigation in the reservoir head area of the Yangtze Three Gorges,combining with its seismogeological background and past research achievements,the reservoir head area is divided into 31 predictive units,and together with 8 impact factors,the possibility and magnitude of reservoir induced seismicity(RIS)are predicted using statistical forecasting model.The results show as follows:(1)it is quite possible that ML=3.0～4.5 earthquakes will be triggered along the Jiuwanxi-Lukouzi Fault and Xiannvshan Fault in the reservoir area;(2)According to the analysis of earthquakes at home and abroad,the RIS takes place mainly in carbonatite and igneous rocks,and concentrates in karst developing segment,yet it is little possible that earthquake happens in clastic rock area.From the predictive results,it is possible to trigger ML 4.5～6.0 earthquake in two places,the limestone area of southern Badong and the limestone area on the Gaoqiao Fault;(3)Around the Gaoqiao Fault,tectonic reservoir-induced earthquake is quite likely to occur.Geological investigation shows that the ML 5.1 Longhuiguan earthquake in 1979 was possibly related to the Gaoqiao Fault which had a certain activity during the early period of reservoir impounding.The maximum magnitude of earthquake happening around the Gaoqiao Fault reaches to M3.3.The bigger earthquakes might be induced near the reservoir segment of Gaoqiao Fault along with the water storing to the design level.
Based on field investigation in the reservoir head area of the Yangtze Three Gorges,combining with its seismogeological background and past research achievements,the reservoir head area is divided into 31 predictive units,and together with 8 impact factors,the possibility and magnitude of reservoir induced seismicity(RIS)are predicted using statistical forecasting model.The results show as follows:(1)it is quite possible that ML=3.0～4.5 earthquakes will be triggered along the Jiuwanxi-Lukouzi Fault and Xiannvshan Fault in the reservoir area;(2)According to the analysis of earthquakes at home and abroad,the RIS takes place mainly in carbonatite and igneous rocks,and concentrates in karst developing segment,yet it is little possible that earthquake happens in clastic rock area.From the predictive results,it is possible to trigger ML 4.5～6.0 earthquake in two places,the limestone area of southern Badong and the limestone area on the Gaoqiao Fault;(3)Around the Gaoqiao Fault,tectonic reservoir-induced earthquake is quite likely to occur.Geological investigation shows that the ML 5.1 Longhuiguan earthquake in 1979 was possibly related to the Gaoqiao Fault which had a certain activity during the early period of reservoir impounding.The maximum magnitude of earthquake happening around the Gaoqiao Fault reaches to M3.3.The bigger earthquakes might be induced near the reservoir segment of Gaoqiao Fault along with the water storing to the design level.
引文
丁原章.1989.水库诱发地震[M].北京:地震出版社.154—155.DINGYuan-zhang.1989.Reservoir Induced Earthquakes[M].Seismological Press,Beijing.154—155(in Chinese).
高士钧,王清云,曾心传,等.1992.长江三峡地区地壳应力场与地震[M].北京:地震出版社.147—154.GAO Shi-jun,WANG Qing-yun,ZENG Xin-chuan,et al.1992.Crustal Stress Field and Earthquake in the Three GorgeArea[M].Seismological Press,Beijing.147—154(in Chinese).
光耀华.1991.岩溶地区水库诱发地震探讨[J].中国岩溶,10(4):283—293.GUANG Yao-hua.1991.Discussion on inductive earthquake of reservoir in Karst area[J].Carsologica Sinica,10(4):283—293(in Chinese).
李安然,徐永键,韩晓光,等.1990.中国东部四个水库震例的诱震环境因素研究[J].华南地震,10(3):89—99.LI An-ran,XUYong-jian,HAN Xiao-guang,et al.1990.Environment factors of water-induced earthquake of four reser-voirs in east China[J].South China Seismological Journal,10(3):89—99(in Chinese).
苏锦星,夏其发,汪雍熙,等.1993.大藤峡水库诱发地震初步预测[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,4(4):42—51.SUJin-xing,XIA Qi-fa,WANG Yong-xi,et al.1993.Preliminary prediction on Datengxia reservoir induced seismicity[J].Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,4(4):42—51(in Chinese).
王清云,张秋文,李峰.2003.长江三峡工程库首区诱发地震危险性研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,23(2):101—106.WANG Qing-yun,ZHANG Qiu-wen,LI Feng.2003.Study on risk of induced earthquake in reservoir head region ofThree Gorges project on Yangtze River[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,23(2):101—106(in Chi-nese).
夏金梧,李长安,王旭.2007.神经网络在三峡水库诱发地震预测中的应用[J].人民长江,38(2):8—11.XIA Jin-wu,LI Chang-an,WANG Xu.2007.Application of neural network theory in prediction of earthquake inducedby TGP reservoir[J].Yangtze River,38(2):8—11(in Chinese).
杨清源,陈小莉,陈献程.2001.水库诱发地震的最大震级及其发震时间的预测研究[J].地震学报,23(5):523—529.YANG Qing-yuan,CHENXiao-li,CHENXian-cheng.2001.Prediction of maximum magnitude and original time of res-ervoir induced seismicity[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,23(5):523—529(in Chinese).
杨主恩,林传勇,高振寰,等.1995.东江水库诱发地震的地震地质背景研究[J].地震地质,17(3):242—252.YANG Zhu-en,LIN Chuan-yong,GAO Zhen-huan,et al.1995.Studies on seismogeological background for Dongjiang reservoir induced earthquake[J].Seismology and Geology,17(3):242—252(in Chinese).
易立新.2001.水库诱发地震理论及三峡水库诱发地震预测研究[D]:[学位论文].北京:中国地震局地质研究所.50—79.YI Li-xin.2001.Study on Theory of Reservoir Induced Seismicity and Prediction of the Three Gorges Reservoir InducedEarthquakes[D].Dissertation.Institute of Geology,CEA,Beijing.50—79(in Chinese).
虞庭林.1995.水库区地壳稳定性与地震预测研究的途径和方法[J].国际地震动态,(5):1—4.YU Ting-lin.1995.Ways and methods of research and earthquake prediction on crustal stability in reservoir areas[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,(5):1—4(in Chinese).
张秋文,李安然,王清云,等.1998.水库及其周缘地区诱发地震危险性评定的一种模型及其应用[J].地震地质,20(4):361—369.ZHANG Qiu-wen,LI An-ran,WANG Qing-yun,et al.1998.A model of water-induced earthquake risk assessment inreservoir area and its surrounding regions[J].Seismology and Geology,20(4):361—369(in Chinese).
Beacher G B and Keeney R L.1982.Statistic examination of reservoir induced seismicity[J].Bulletin of the Seismo-logical Society of America,72(2):553—569.
Caine J S,Evans J P,Forster C B.1996.Fault zone architecture and permeability structure[J].Geology,24(11):1025—1028.
Gupta HK,Narain H,Rastogi B K,et al.1969.A study of the Koyna earthquake of December10,l967[J].Bulletinof the Seismological Society of America,59(4):1149—1162.
Gupta H K.1985.The present status of reservoir induced seismicity investigation with special emphasis on Koynaearthquake[J].Tectonophysics,118(3/4):257—279.
Gupta HK.1992.Reservoir-Induced Earthquakes[M].Elsevier,New York.1—56.
高士钧,王清云,曾心传,等.1992.长江三峡地区地壳应力场与地震[M].北京:地震出版社.147—154.GAO Shi-jun,WANG Qing-yun,ZENG Xin-chuan,et al.1992.Crustal Stress Field and Earthquake in the Three GorgeArea[M].Seismological Press,Beijing.147—154(in Chinese).
光耀华.1991.岩溶地区水库诱发地震探讨[J].中国岩溶,10(4):283—293.GUANG Yao-hua.1991.Discussion on inductive earthquake of reservoir in Karst area[J].Carsologica Sinica,10(4):283—293(in Chinese).
李安然,徐永键,韩晓光,等.1990.中国东部四个水库震例的诱震环境因素研究[J].华南地震,10(3):89—99.LI An-ran,XUYong-jian,HAN Xiao-guang,et al.1990.Environment factors of water-induced earthquake of four reser-voirs in east China[J].South China Seismological Journal,10(3):89—99(in Chinese).
苏锦星,夏其发,汪雍熙,等.1993.大藤峡水库诱发地震初步预测[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,4(4):42—51.SUJin-xing,XIA Qi-fa,WANG Yong-xi,et al.1993.Preliminary prediction on Datengxia reservoir induced seismicity[J].Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,4(4):42—51(in Chinese).
王清云,张秋文,李峰.2003.长江三峡工程库首区诱发地震危险性研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,23(2):101—106.WANG Qing-yun,ZHANG Qiu-wen,LI Feng.2003.Study on risk of induced earthquake in reservoir head region ofThree Gorges project on Yangtze River[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,23(2):101—106(in Chi-nese).
夏金梧,李长安,王旭.2007.神经网络在三峡水库诱发地震预测中的应用[J].人民长江,38(2):8—11.XIA Jin-wu,LI Chang-an,WANG Xu.2007.Application of neural network theory in prediction of earthquake inducedby TGP reservoir[J].Yangtze River,38(2):8—11(in Chinese).
杨清源,陈小莉,陈献程.2001.水库诱发地震的最大震级及其发震时间的预测研究[J].地震学报,23(5):523—529.YANG Qing-yuan,CHENXiao-li,CHENXian-cheng.2001.Prediction of maximum magnitude and original time of res-ervoir induced seismicity[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,23(5):523—529(in Chinese).
杨主恩,林传勇,高振寰,等.1995.东江水库诱发地震的地震地质背景研究[J].地震地质,17(3):242—252.YANG Zhu-en,LIN Chuan-yong,GAO Zhen-huan,et al.1995.Studies on seismogeological background for Dongjiang reservoir induced earthquake[J].Seismology and Geology,17(3):242—252(in Chinese).
易立新.2001.水库诱发地震理论及三峡水库诱发地震预测研究[D]:[学位论文].北京:中国地震局地质研究所.50—79.YI Li-xin.2001.Study on Theory of Reservoir Induced Seismicity and Prediction of the Three Gorges Reservoir InducedEarthquakes[D].Dissertation.Institute of Geology,CEA,Beijing.50—79(in Chinese).
虞庭林.1995.水库区地壳稳定性与地震预测研究的途径和方法[J].国际地震动态,(5):1—4.YU Ting-lin.1995.Ways and methods of research and earthquake prediction on crustal stability in reservoir areas[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,(5):1—4(in Chinese).
张秋文,李安然,王清云,等.1998.水库及其周缘地区诱发地震危险性评定的一种模型及其应用[J].地震地质,20(4):361—369.ZHANG Qiu-wen,LI An-ran,WANG Qing-yun,et al.1998.A model of water-induced earthquake risk assessment inreservoir area and its surrounding regions[J].Seismology and Geology,20(4):361—369(in Chinese).
Beacher G B and Keeney R L.1982.Statistic examination of reservoir induced seismicity[J].Bulletin of the Seismo-logical Society of America,72(2):553—569.
Caine J S,Evans J P,Forster C B.1996.Fault zone architecture and permeability structure[J].Geology,24(11):1025—1028.
Gupta HK,Narain H,Rastogi B K,et al.1969.A study of the Koyna earthquake of December10,l967[J].Bulletinof the Seismological Society of America,59(4):1149—1162.
Gupta H K.1985.The present status of reservoir induced seismicity investigation with special emphasis on Koynaearthquake[J].Tectonophysics,118(3/4):257—279.
Gupta HK.1992.Reservoir-Induced Earthquakes[M].Elsevier,New York.1—56.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心