对图像信息学(PI)算法的一个回溯性预测检验:四川芦山7.0级地震

英文篇名：Retrospective test of the PI forecast: case study of the April 20, 2013, Lushan, Sichuan, China, M_S7.0 earthquake
中文刊名：物理
英文刊名：Physics
作者：蒋卉 ; 吴忠良 ; 马腾飞 ; 蒋长胜
英文作者：JIANG Hui WU Zhong-Liang MA Teng-Fei JIANG Chang-Sheng (Institute of Geophysics ; China Earthquake Administration ; Beijing 100081 ; China)
中文关键词：地震预测 ; PI算法 ; 芦山地震 ; 地震统计物理
英文关键词：earthquake forecast ; PI algorithm ; Lushan earthquake ; statistical physics of earthquakes
出版日期：2013-05-12
机构：中国地震局地球物理研究所;
年：2013
期：05
出版单位：物理

摘要

文章针对中强地震预测的图像信息学(PI)算法,对2013年4月20日芦山MS7.0地震的预测效果进行了回溯性震例分析。结果表明,在芦山地震的震中附近存在"PI热点"。在与2008年汶川地震的PI算法预测进行比较后建议,在以后的"PI热点"计算中,也许还应把背景形变速率作为一个权重因素考虑在内。
Forecast of the intermediate-to-strong earthquakes based on the Pattern Informatics (PI) algorithm was tested against the April 20, 2013, Lushan, Sichuan, China, MS7.0 earthquake. It is shown that the PI hotspots distribute around the epicenter of the Lushan earthquake. Comparison between the PI forecast of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and the 2013 Lushan earthquake suggests the importance of background deformation/strain rate in the PI forecast.

引文

1)http://www.cea-igp.ac.cn/jjxcdsxj/266815.shtml
    2)http://www.csndmc.ac.cn/newweb/data.htm
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