华北地区第三、四活动期平静幕后期中强地震活动与未来强震
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摘要
本文通过分析、研究华北地区第三、四活动期各平静幕后期的中强地震活动特征,认为:①华北地区第三、四活动期9个活跃幕中有7个在首发强震前3年内发生中强地震,其中第四活动期1~4活跃幕首发强震前2年内都发生了中强地震,未来第5活跃幕首发强震前,以发生中强地震作为序幕的可能性较大;②华北地区平静幕后期的中强地震活动,对其后活跃幕首发强震在时间和地点上有一定指示作用。由于华北地区可能即将进入新的强震活跃幕,该研究对判断华北地区未来强震趋势具有实用意义。
In this paper,we analysed and studied moderate-strong seismic characteristics in the 3rd and 4th seismically active periods in North China and proposed that: ① Seven active episodes in nine of the 3rd and 4th seismically active periods in North China have the same character that moderate-strong earthquakes occurred three years before the first strong shock and two years before for the 1st to 4th active episodes of the 4th seismically active period espically,so it will be more propably to have moderate-strong earthquake as prelude before the first strong shock in the coming 5th active episode;② The moderate-strong seismicities in the later stage of seismic quiescence episodes in North China have certain indication in time and location to the first strong shock in the following active episode.It may proceed in a new strong-shock active episode in North China,so this study will be useful for strong earthquake trendency prediction in North China.
In this paper,we analysed and studied moderate-strong seismic characteristics in the 3rd and 4th seismically active periods in North China and proposed that: ① Seven active episodes in nine of the 3rd and 4th seismically active periods in North China have the same character that moderate-strong earthquakes occurred three years before the first strong shock and two years before for the 1st to 4th active episodes of the 4th seismically active period espically,so it will be more propably to have moderate-strong earthquake as prelude before the first strong shock in the coming 5th active episode;② The moderate-strong seismicities in the later stage of seismic quiescence episodes in North China have certain indication in time and location to the first strong shock in the following active episode.It may proceed in a new strong-shock active episode in North China,so this study will be useful for strong earthquake trendency prediction in North China.
引文
[1]马宗晋,傅征样,张郢珍.1966—1976年中国九大地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1982.
[2]蒋铭,马宗晋.华北第三、四活跃期的对比[J].地震,1985,5(6):5-11.
[3]陈荣华.华北第三地震活动期和第四地震活动期的相似性[J].地震,1992,12(6):32-36.
[4]汪良谋.华北强震时-空变化某些特点与近期强震活动趋势[J].地震地质,1987,9(2):39-47.
[5]时振梁,曹学锋.历史地震目录修订问题[J].中国地震,1998,14(3):1-5.
[6]汪素云,吴戈,时振梁,等.《中国近代地震目录(公元1912年—1990年MS≥4.7)》简介[J].中国地震,1998,14(3):83-87.
[7]国家地震局震害防御司.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪—1911年)[M].北京:地震出版社,1995.
[8]中国地震局震害防御司.中国近代地震目录(公元1912年—1990年MS≥4.7)[M].北京:中国科学出版社,1999.
[9]黄玮琼,李文香,曹学锋.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之一——以华北地区为例[J].地震学报,1994,16(3):273-280.
[10]张国民,傅征样.华北强震的时间分布及物理解释[J].地球物理学报,1985,28(6):569-578.
[11]张国民,马宗晋,蒋铭.华北强震规律的研究[J].中国地震,1988,4(3):66-70.
[12]陈章立,薛峰,吕培苓,等.唐山7.8级强震孕育过程的地震活动性特征[J].西北地震学报,1981,3(4):9-16.
①http://www.csndmc.ac.cn/newweb
[2]蒋铭,马宗晋.华北第三、四活跃期的对比[J].地震,1985,5(6):5-11.
[3]陈荣华.华北第三地震活动期和第四地震活动期的相似性[J].地震,1992,12(6):32-36.
[4]汪良谋.华北强震时-空变化某些特点与近期强震活动趋势[J].地震地质,1987,9(2):39-47.
[5]时振梁,曹学锋.历史地震目录修订问题[J].中国地震,1998,14(3):1-5.
[6]汪素云,吴戈,时振梁,等.《中国近代地震目录(公元1912年—1990年MS≥4.7)》简介[J].中国地震,1998,14(3):83-87.
[7]国家地震局震害防御司.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪—1911年)[M].北京:地震出版社,1995.
[8]中国地震局震害防御司.中国近代地震目录(公元1912年—1990年MS≥4.7)[M].北京:中国科学出版社,1999.
[9]黄玮琼,李文香,曹学锋.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之一——以华北地区为例[J].地震学报,1994,16(3):273-280.
[10]张国民,傅征样.华北强震的时间分布及物理解释[J].地球物理学报,1985,28(6):569-578.
[11]张国民,马宗晋,蒋铭.华北强震规律的研究[J].中国地震,1988,4(3):66-70.
[12]陈章立,薛峰,吕培苓,等.唐山7.8级强震孕育过程的地震活动性特征[J].西北地震学报,1981,3(4):9-16.
①http://www.csndmc.ac.cn/newweb
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