基于信息量与逻辑回归模型的次生滑坡灾害敏感性评价——以汶川县北部为例
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摘要
次生滑坡灾害的影响是震后较长时间里人们持续关注的焦点,对其开展敏感性评价具有重要意义。选取5.12地震的重灾区汶川县北部作为研究区,利用遥感与地理信息技术提取地震滑坡信息,在全面分析滑坡与高程、坡度、坡向、岩性、断裂带、地震烈度以及水系等7个影响因子相关特性的基础上,采用信息量法与逻辑回归模型进行灾害敏感性评价,将研究区划分为极轻度、轻度、中度、高度和极高危险5个级别,并对不同模型的适用性开展分析和对比。结果表明,逻辑回归模型在描述区域滑坡灾害危险度总体特征方面稍具优势。
The Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake,which occurred on 12 May 2008 in Sichuan Province,collapsed a great many houses and injured thousands of people.Undoubtedly,it can be predicted that secondary earthquake landslides,as a common secondary hazard triggered by earthquakes,will draw much attention during a long time after earthquake due to the severe geological hazard.In order to remove threat from the secondary disasters effectively,this study used remote sensing and GIS to generate susceptibility maps,taking the case of northern Wenchuan County.Seven factors affecting landslide occurrence have been taken into account in the susceptibility assessment,including elevation,slope,aspect,lithology,seismic intensity,distance to faults and rivers.According to the probability that predicts the possibility of landslide occurrence by information value method and logistic regression separately,the study area was ultimately categorized into five classes,namely,"extremely low","low","moderate","high" and "very high".The result has proved to reflect closely the spatial distributions of landslides in the study area.Subsequently,these two probabilistic and statistical approaches for estimating the susceptible areas of the study area of Wenchuan County were tested.It can be concluded that the predictive capability of logistic regression model appears to be more accurate compared to information value method.It is mainly due to the fact that logistic regression could reduce effectively the subjectivity in selection of evaluation factors and weight assignment.
The Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake,which occurred on 12 May 2008 in Sichuan Province,collapsed a great many houses and injured thousands of people.Undoubtedly,it can be predicted that secondary earthquake landslides,as a common secondary hazard triggered by earthquakes,will draw much attention during a long time after earthquake due to the severe geological hazard.In order to remove threat from the secondary disasters effectively,this study used remote sensing and GIS to generate susceptibility maps,taking the case of northern Wenchuan County.Seven factors affecting landslide occurrence have been taken into account in the susceptibility assessment,including elevation,slope,aspect,lithology,seismic intensity,distance to faults and rivers.According to the probability that predicts the possibility of landslide occurrence by information value method and logistic regression separately,the study area was ultimately categorized into five classes,namely,"extremely low","low","moderate","high" and "very high".The result has proved to reflect closely the spatial distributions of landslides in the study area.Subsequently,these two probabilistic and statistical approaches for estimating the susceptible areas of the study area of Wenchuan County were tested.It can be concluded that the predictive capability of logistic regression model appears to be more accurate compared to information value method.It is mainly due to the fact that logistic regression could reduce effectively the subjectivity in selection of evaluation factors and weight assignment.
引文
[1]李光,姚大全,张有林.汶川8.0级地震崩塌、滑坡的发育特点.防灾科技学院学报,2008,10(3):131~134.
[2]胡德勇,李京,陈云浩,等.GIS支持下滑坡灾害空间预测方法研究.遥感学报,2007,11(6):852~859.
[3]陈晓利,赵健,叶洪.应用径向基概率神经网络研究地震滑坡.地震地质,2006,28(3):430~440.
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[7]朱良峰,吴信才,殷坤龙.基于GIS的中国滑坡灾害风险分析.岩土力学,2003,24(增):221~230.
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[11]Greco R,Sorriso-Valvo M,Catalano E.Logistic regression analysisinthe evaluation of mass movements suscep-tibility:The Aspromonte case study,Calabria,Italy.Engineering Geology,2007,89:47~66.
[12]曾忠平,汪华斌,张志,等.地理信息系统/遥感技术支持下三峡库区青干河流域滑坡危险性评价.岩石力学与工程学报,2006,25(增):2777~2784.
[13]汪华斌,Sassa Kyoji.蒙特卡罗模拟在区域地震滑坡灾害评价中应用.岩土力学,2007,28(12):2565~2569.
[14]程思,易加强.四川汶川县地质灾害的成因及防治对策.地质灾害与环境保护,2007,18(4):1~6.
[15]殷跃平.汶川地震地质与滑坡灾害概论.北京:地质出版社,2009.
[16]李铁锋,徐岳仁,潘懋,等.基于多期SPOT-5影像的降雨型浅层滑坡遥感解译研究.北京大学学报(自然科学版),2007,43(2):204~210.
[17]胡德勇,赵文吉,李小娟,等.不完备样本条件下基于支持向量回归模型的滑坡易发性评价.地理研究,2008,27(4):755~762.
[18]李军,周成虎.基于栅格GIS滑坡风险评价方法中格网大小选取分析.遥感学报,2003,7(2):86~92.
[19]李忠生.国内外地震滑坡灾害研究综述.灾害学,2003,18(4):64~70.
[20]陈晓利,冉洪流,祁生文.1976年龙陵地震诱发滑坡的影响因子敏感性分析.北京大学学报(自然科学版),2009,(1):104~110.
[21]朱良峰,吴信才,殷坤龙,等.基于信息量模型的中国滑坡灾害风险区划研究.地球科学与环境学报,2004,26(3):52~56.
[22]王济川,郭志刚.Logistic回归模型方法与应用.北京:高等教育出版社,2001.6~11.
[23]Sridevi Jadi.斜坡不稳定性分类的统计模型.世界地质,1997,16(1):83~88.
[2]胡德勇,李京,陈云浩,等.GIS支持下滑坡灾害空间预测方法研究.遥感学报,2007,11(6):852~859.
[3]陈晓利,赵健,叶洪.应用径向基概率神经网络研究地震滑坡.地震地质,2006,28(3):430~440.
[4]Lee S,Ryu J,Min K,et al.Development and application of landslides susceptibility analysis techniques using Ge-ographic Information System(GIS).Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium,2000,1:319~327.
[5]吴益平,唐辉明.滑坡灾害空间预测研究.地质科技情报,2001,20(2):87~90.
[6]石菊松,徐瑞春,石玲.基于RS和GIS技术的清江隔河岩库区滑坡易发性评价与制图.地学前缘,2007,14(6):119~128.
[7]朱良峰,吴信才,殷坤龙.基于GIS的中国滑坡灾害风险分析.岩土力学,2003,24(增):221~230.
[8]Van Westen C J,Rengers N,Soeters R.Use of geomorphological information in indirect landslide susceptibilityassessment.Natural Hazards,2003,30:399~419.
[9]Rowbotham D N,Dudycha D.GIS modelling of slope stabilityin Phewa Tal watershed,Nepal.Geomorphology,1998,(26):151~170.
[10]赵建华,陈汉林,杨树锋.滑坡灾害危险性评价模型比较.自然灾害学报,2006,15(1):128~134.
[11]Greco R,Sorriso-Valvo M,Catalano E.Logistic regression analysisinthe evaluation of mass movements suscep-tibility:The Aspromonte case study,Calabria,Italy.Engineering Geology,2007,89:47~66.
[12]曾忠平,汪华斌,张志,等.地理信息系统/遥感技术支持下三峡库区青干河流域滑坡危险性评价.岩石力学与工程学报,2006,25(增):2777~2784.
[13]汪华斌,Sassa Kyoji.蒙特卡罗模拟在区域地震滑坡灾害评价中应用.岩土力学,2007,28(12):2565~2569.
[14]程思,易加强.四川汶川县地质灾害的成因及防治对策.地质灾害与环境保护,2007,18(4):1~6.
[15]殷跃平.汶川地震地质与滑坡灾害概论.北京:地质出版社,2009.
[16]李铁锋,徐岳仁,潘懋,等.基于多期SPOT-5影像的降雨型浅层滑坡遥感解译研究.北京大学学报(自然科学版),2007,43(2):204~210.
[17]胡德勇,赵文吉,李小娟,等.不完备样本条件下基于支持向量回归模型的滑坡易发性评价.地理研究,2008,27(4):755~762.
[18]李军,周成虎.基于栅格GIS滑坡风险评价方法中格网大小选取分析.遥感学报,2003,7(2):86~92.
[19]李忠生.国内外地震滑坡灾害研究综述.灾害学,2003,18(4):64~70.
[20]陈晓利,冉洪流,祁生文.1976年龙陵地震诱发滑坡的影响因子敏感性分析.北京大学学报(自然科学版),2009,(1):104~110.
[21]朱良峰,吴信才,殷坤龙,等.基于信息量模型的中国滑坡灾害风险区划研究.地球科学与环境学报,2004,26(3):52~56.
[22]王济川,郭志刚.Logistic回归模型方法与应用.北京:高等教育出版社,2001.6~11.
[23]Sridevi Jadi.斜坡不稳定性分类的统计模型.世界地质,1997,16(1):83~88.
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