论发震构造特性在潜在震源区参数确定中的应用
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摘要
发震构造特性是潜在震源区划分及其地震年发生率确定的重要依据。潜在震源区除了反映“未来具有发生破坏性地震的地区”的内涵外,还应反映高震级档地震具有相似复发特征的涵义。由于在地震活动性参数统计单元内,有一些具有不同本底地震的活动构造块体,为更好地反映地震活动的空间不均匀性,考虑潜在震源区的三级划分是有必要的。通过分析潜在震源区内高震级档地震的复发特征,计算预测时段内潜在震源区的高震级档地震的发震概率,采用预测时段内概率等效转换获得地震年平均发生率的方法,有助于在中国地震危险性分析框架内考虑潜在震源区的强震复发特性。另外,文中还对潜在震源区内特征地震次级震级档频度不足的特性和发震构造上强震非均匀性在地震危险性分析中的应用问题进行了探讨。
Studies of the properties of seismogenic structures play an important role in delineation of potential earthquake source and in determination of parameters of seismic activity. The location, direction, size and the maximum potential earthquake magnitude of a seismogenic structure can be used separately to determine the location, direction, extent and upper limit magnitude of the related potential earthquake sources. The recurrence behavior of large earthquakes on seismogenic structures is closely related to the estimation of the annual average occurrence of the high magnitude grade earthquakes. In consideration of the spatial heterogeneity of seismicity, two grade delineation of potential earthquake source has been adopted in seismic hazard assessment in China since the late 1980s. Moreover, a relatively large region is usually taken as the seismictiy statistical unit (seismic region or seismic zone) in order to gain sufficient seismic data, so that it might contain some seismotectonic blocks with different background earthquake magnitudes. For the sake of more reasonable seismic hazard assessment, it is necessary to consider these seismotectonic blocks as the second grade potential earthquake sources, which are then subdivided into the third grade potential earthquake sources. On the basis of research on the recurrence behavior of large earthquakes on seismogenic structures, this paper proposes a method for calculating the annual average occurrence of the high magnitude grade earthquakes by applying the equivalent probability transferring in the predicted time scale. This method may greatly enhance the reasonability of seismic risk assessment. The frequency insufficiency of the second grade magnitude earthquakes of potential earthquake sources and the spatial inhomogeneity of seismogenic structures, as well as their applications to determining the parameters of potential earthquake sources are also discussed in this paper.
Studies of the properties of seismogenic structures play an important role in delineation of potential earthquake source and in determination of parameters of seismic activity. The location, direction, size and the maximum potential earthquake magnitude of a seismogenic structure can be used separately to determine the location, direction, extent and upper limit magnitude of the related potential earthquake sources. The recurrence behavior of large earthquakes on seismogenic structures is closely related to the estimation of the annual average occurrence of the high magnitude grade earthquakes. In consideration of the spatial heterogeneity of seismicity, two grade delineation of potential earthquake source has been adopted in seismic hazard assessment in China since the late 1980s. Moreover, a relatively large region is usually taken as the seismictiy statistical unit (seismic region or seismic zone) in order to gain sufficient seismic data, so that it might contain some seismotectonic blocks with different background earthquake magnitudes. For the sake of more reasonable seismic hazard assessment, it is necessary to consider these seismotectonic blocks as the second grade potential earthquake sources, which are then subdivided into the third grade potential earthquake sources. On the basis of research on the recurrence behavior of large earthquakes on seismogenic structures, this paper proposes a method for calculating the annual average occurrence of the high magnitude grade earthquakes by applying the equivalent probability transferring in the predicted time scale. This method may greatly enhance the reasonability of seismic risk assessment. The frequency insufficiency of the second grade magnitude earthquakes of potential earthquake sources and the spatial inhomogeneity of seismogenic structures, as well as their applications to determining the parameters of potential earthquake sources are also discussed in this paper.
引文
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潘华,鄢家全.1995.潜在震源区概念的界定[J].国际地震动态,(9):1—5.
PANHua,YANJia quan.1995.Identificationoftheconceptofpotentialsource[J].RecentDevelopmentsinWorldSeis mology,(9):1—5(inChinese).
宋方敏,汪一鹏,俞维贤,等.1998.小江活动断裂带[M].北京:地震出版社.
SONGFang min,WANGYi peng,YUWei xian,etal.1998.TheActiveXiaojiangFaultZone[M].SeismologicalPress,Beijing(inChinese).
胥广银,高孟潭.1996.潜在震源区内部非均匀特征研究[J].中国地震,12(3):294—299.
XUGuang yin,GAOMeng tan.1996.Studyonthenonhomogenouscharacteristicsinpotentialsource[J].EarthquakeRe searchinChina,12(3):294—299(inChinese).
胥广银.2003.潜在震源区三维空间模型及其在地震危险性概率分析中的应用研究[D]:[学位论文].北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所.
XUGuang yin.2003.Studyon3DPotentialSeismicSourceModelsandtheirApplicationsonProbabilisticSeismicHazardAnalysis[D]:PhDthesis.InstituteofGeophysics,ChinaEarthquakeAdministration,Beijing(inChinese).
鄢家全.1993.确定空间分布函数的原则和方法[A].见:国家地震局震害防御司编.中国地震区划文集.北京:地震出版社.172—177.
YANJia quan.1993.Principelsandmethodsindeterminingtheseismicspatialdistributionfunctions[A].In:DepartmentofEarthquakeDisasterPrevention,StateSeismologicalBureau(ed).CollectedPapersofSeismicZonationinChina.Seis mologicalPress,Beijing.172—177(inChinese).
鄢家全,贾素娟.1996.我国东北和华北地区中强地震潜在震源区的划分原则和方法[J].中国地震,12(3):173—194.
YANJia quan,JIASu juan.1996.TheprincipleandmethodologyofdelineationofpotentialseismicsourceformoderateearthquakesinNortheastandNorthChina[J].EarthquakeResearchinChina,12(3):173—194(inChinese).
张裕明,周本刚.1993.潜在震源区范围的确定[A].见:国家地震局震害防御司编.中国地震区划文集.北京:地震出版社.34—41.
ZHANGYu ming,ZHOUBen gang.1993.Delineationofpotentialseismicsourceextent[A].In:DepartmentofEarthquakeDisasterPrevention,StateSeismologicalBureau(ed).CollectedPapersofSeismicZonationinChina.Seismologi calPress,Beijing.34—41(inChinese).
张裕明.1993.在确定潜在震源区中地震和地质资料的应用[J].地震地质,14(3):276—278.
ZHANGYu ming.1993.Determinationofpotentialearthquakesourcefrombothseismicandgeologicaldata[J].SeismologyandGeology,14(3):276—278(inChinese).
周本刚,张裕明,董瑞树,等.1997.划分潜在震源区的地震地质规则研究[J].中国地震,13(3):241—252.
ZHOUBen gang,ZHANGYu ming,DONGRui shu,etal.1997.Studyonthegeologicalstructuralcriteriaondetermina tionofpotentialearthquakeregion[J].EarthquakeResearchinChina,13(3):241—252(inChinese).
周本刚.2002.发震构造特性在潜在震源区中的应用研究[D]:[学位论文].北京:中国地震局地质研究所.
ZHOUBen gang.2002.ApplicationofCharacteristicsofSeismogenicStructurestoStudiesofPotentialEarthquakeSource[D]:PhDthesis.InstituteofGeology,ChinaEarthquakeAdministration,Beijing(inChinese).
周本刚,冉洪流,宋新初,等.2003.中国大陆走滑断层段强震非均匀分布特性及其在工程地震中的应用[J].中国地震,19(3):295—305.
ZHOUBen gang,RANHong liu,SONGXin chu,etal.2003.Aninhomogeneousdistributionmodelofstrongearthquakesalongstrike slipactivefaultsegmentsontheChinesecontinentanditsimplicationinengineeringseismology[J].Earth quakeResearchinChina,19(3):295—305(inChinese).
国家地震局.1996.中国地震烈度区划图(1990)概论[M].北京:地震出版社.
StateSeismologicalBureau.1996.IntroductiontotheIntensityZoningMapofChina(1990)[M].SeismologicalPress,Bei jing(inChinese).
FrankelA ,MuellerC ,BarhardT ,etal.1996.NationalSeismicHazardMaps,June1996[Z].Documentation.CornelCA .1968.Engineeringseismicriskanalysis[J].BullSeismSocAm,58(5):1583—1606.
CoppersmithKJ .1991.Seismicsourcecharacterizationforengineeringseismichazardanalysis[A].In:Proceedingofthe4 thInternationalConferenceonSeismicZonation,1:3—60.
SchwartzDP ,CoppersmithKJ.1984.Faultbehaviorandcharacteristicearthquake:examplesfromtheWasatchandSanAnderasfaultzones[J].JourGeophysRes,89:5681—5698.
UlomovVI.1999.SeismichazardofnorthernEurasia[J].AnnaliDiGeofisica,42(6):1023—1038.
WorkingGrouponCaliforniaEarthquakeProbabilities.1995.SeismichazardsinSouthernCalifornia:Probableearthquake,1994—2024[J].BullSeismSocAm,85(2):379—439.
GAOMeng tan,XUGuang yin.1996.ApplicationofthemethodsofseismiczonewithnonhomogeneousspatialdistributioninthepotentialsourcetothewesternPanzhihuaandthemiddleandsouthernShanxiProvince[J].EarthquakeResearchinChina,12(Suppl):25—31(inChinese).
潘华,鄢家全.1995.潜在震源区概念的界定[J].国际地震动态,(9):1—5.
PANHua,YANJia quan.1995.Identificationoftheconceptofpotentialsource[J].RecentDevelopmentsinWorldSeis mology,(9):1—5(inChinese).
宋方敏,汪一鹏,俞维贤,等.1998.小江活动断裂带[M].北京:地震出版社.
SONGFang min,WANGYi peng,YUWei xian,etal.1998.TheActiveXiaojiangFaultZone[M].SeismologicalPress,Beijing(inChinese).
胥广银,高孟潭.1996.潜在震源区内部非均匀特征研究[J].中国地震,12(3):294—299.
XUGuang yin,GAOMeng tan.1996.Studyonthenonhomogenouscharacteristicsinpotentialsource[J].EarthquakeRe searchinChina,12(3):294—299(inChinese).
胥广银.2003.潜在震源区三维空间模型及其在地震危险性概率分析中的应用研究[D]:[学位论文].北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所.
XUGuang yin.2003.Studyon3DPotentialSeismicSourceModelsandtheirApplicationsonProbabilisticSeismicHazardAnalysis[D]:PhDthesis.InstituteofGeophysics,ChinaEarthquakeAdministration,Beijing(inChinese).
鄢家全.1993.确定空间分布函数的原则和方法[A].见:国家地震局震害防御司编.中国地震区划文集.北京:地震出版社.172—177.
YANJia quan.1993.Principelsandmethodsindeterminingtheseismicspatialdistributionfunctions[A].In:DepartmentofEarthquakeDisasterPrevention,StateSeismologicalBureau(ed).CollectedPapersofSeismicZonationinChina.Seis mologicalPress,Beijing.172—177(inChinese).
鄢家全,贾素娟.1996.我国东北和华北地区中强地震潜在震源区的划分原则和方法[J].中国地震,12(3):173—194.
YANJia quan,JIASu juan.1996.TheprincipleandmethodologyofdelineationofpotentialseismicsourceformoderateearthquakesinNortheastandNorthChina[J].EarthquakeResearchinChina,12(3):173—194(inChinese).
张裕明,周本刚.1993.潜在震源区范围的确定[A].见:国家地震局震害防御司编.中国地震区划文集.北京:地震出版社.34—41.
ZHANGYu ming,ZHOUBen gang.1993.Delineationofpotentialseismicsourceextent[A].In:DepartmentofEarthquakeDisasterPrevention,StateSeismologicalBureau(ed).CollectedPapersofSeismicZonationinChina.Seismologi calPress,Beijing.34—41(inChinese).
张裕明.1993.在确定潜在震源区中地震和地质资料的应用[J].地震地质,14(3):276—278.
ZHANGYu ming.1993.Determinationofpotentialearthquakesourcefrombothseismicandgeologicaldata[J].SeismologyandGeology,14(3):276—278(inChinese).
周本刚,张裕明,董瑞树,等.1997.划分潜在震源区的地震地质规则研究[J].中国地震,13(3):241—252.
ZHOUBen gang,ZHANGYu ming,DONGRui shu,etal.1997.Studyonthegeologicalstructuralcriteriaondetermina tionofpotentialearthquakeregion[J].EarthquakeResearchinChina,13(3):241—252(inChinese).
周本刚.2002.发震构造特性在潜在震源区中的应用研究[D]:[学位论文].北京:中国地震局地质研究所.
ZHOUBen gang.2002.ApplicationofCharacteristicsofSeismogenicStructurestoStudiesofPotentialEarthquakeSource[D]:PhDthesis.InstituteofGeology,ChinaEarthquakeAdministration,Beijing(inChinese).
周本刚,冉洪流,宋新初,等.2003.中国大陆走滑断层段强震非均匀分布特性及其在工程地震中的应用[J].中国地震,19(3):295—305.
ZHOUBen gang,RANHong liu,SONGXin chu,etal.2003.Aninhomogeneousdistributionmodelofstrongearthquakesalongstrike slipactivefaultsegmentsontheChinesecontinentanditsimplicationinengineeringseismology[J].Earth quakeResearchinChina,19(3):295—305(inChinese).
国家地震局.1996.中国地震烈度区划图(1990)概论[M].北京:地震出版社.
StateSeismologicalBureau.1996.IntroductiontotheIntensityZoningMapofChina(1990)[M].SeismologicalPress,Bei jing(inChinese).
FrankelA ,MuellerC ,BarhardT ,etal.1996.NationalSeismicHazardMaps,June1996[Z].Documentation.CornelCA .1968.Engineeringseismicriskanalysis[J].BullSeismSocAm,58(5):1583—1606.
CoppersmithKJ .1991.Seismicsourcecharacterizationforengineeringseismichazardanalysis[A].In:Proceedingofthe4 thInternationalConferenceonSeismicZonation,1:3—60.
SchwartzDP ,CoppersmithKJ.1984.Faultbehaviorandcharacteristicearthquake:examplesfromtheWasatchandSanAnderasfaultzones[J].JourGeophysRes,89:5681—5698.
UlomovVI.1999.SeismichazardofnorthernEurasia[J].AnnaliDiGeofisica,42(6):1023—1038.
WorkingGrouponCaliforniaEarthquakeProbabilities.1995.SeismichazardsinSouthernCalifornia:Probableearthquake,1994—2024[J].BullSeismSocAm,85(2):379—439.
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