伽师—巴楚强震群序列趋势的早期判断
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摘要
使用喀什地震台记录的伽师—巴楚震群序列目录,采用Em/ΣE、ΔM方法对序列早期震型进行判定。在震型判定的基础上,采用h、b、u、F值等参数对震后序列趋势进行分析。得到以下主要结论:(1)伽师—巴楚强震群序列特征复杂,在震群活动的不同阶段,它们既有共性也有个性;在震群活动的各个阶段,不同强度的地震序列特征在震后早期便可显现;(2)首发强震后,区域历史强震类型将有助于定性判断震后趋势,震区余震地震波形可能是早期判断地震类型的关键环节;(3)使用Em/ΣE、ΔM方法并结合主震后第1天内的小震频次能够对震型作出较为准确的判定。在震型判定的基础上再使用h、b、u、F值参数对各级序列进行逐级分层的趋势分析;(3)使用6级地震序列的h值和含主震计算的b值对未来强震震级进行估算,采用5级地震序列的h值和不含主震计算的b值对未来强余震震级进行推算;(5)跟踪子序列的震型、预测震级及参数异常的动态变化,判断后续序列中是否会发生强(余)震,但分析时必须注意各级序列之间的隶属关系和活动背景;(6)在强震成组活动后,若h值出现高→低→高的变化过程,则预示着震群活动可能进入后期。震群中最高震级地震发生后的h值大于1也是序列发展进入晚期的重要标志。
Author used Jiashi-Bachu earthquake cluster sequence catalog recorded by Kashi station, E_m/ΣE and ΔM methods to determine the earthquake sequence early kind. Based on it, author used h, b, u, F value and so on to analyze the postseismic sequence trend. The main result show, (1) the characteristic of the Jiashi-Bachu strong earthquake cluster sequence is difficult, in the different steps of earthquake cluster activities, they have not only same characteristic but also different characteristics. In the every step of earthquake cluster activities, different strong earthquake sequence characteristics will appear in the early time; (2) after strong earthquake occurred, history strong earthquake kind in the region will help to determine the postseismic trend qualitatively. The after-earthquake wave in earthquake region are the key factors of early determining earthquake kind possibly; (3) using E_m/ΣE, ΔM methods and combining the small earthquake frequencies in the first day of after main earthquake to determine earthquake kind correctly. Based on it, using h, b, u, F value to analyze the every class sequence step by step; (4) using h value of M6.0 earthquake sequence and b value containing main earthquake to estimate the future strong earthquake magnitude. Using h value of M5.0 earthquake sequence and b value barring main earthquake to estimate the future strong post-earthquake magnitude; (5) tracking son earthquake sequence kind, estimating earthquake magnitude and abnormal dynamic change of parameter to determine whether there will occur strong(post-) earthquake in the after sequence. But you should pay attention to every class sequence relation and background of earthquake activities; (6) after strong earthquakes group, and h value appear high-low-high, it indicate the earthquake cluster activities come into latter time. The h value >1 after biggest earthquake occurred in the earthquake cluster, it is the symbol of sequence in the latter time.
Author used Jiashi-Bachu earthquake cluster sequence catalog recorded by Kashi station, E_m/ΣE and ΔM methods to determine the earthquake sequence early kind. Based on it, author used h, b, u, F value and so on to analyze the postseismic sequence trend. The main result show, (1) the characteristic of the Jiashi-Bachu strong earthquake cluster sequence is difficult, in the different steps of earthquake cluster activities, they have not only same characteristic but also different characteristics. In the every step of earthquake cluster activities, different strong earthquake sequence characteristics will appear in the early time; (2) after strong earthquake occurred, history strong earthquake kind in the region will help to determine the postseismic trend qualitatively. The after-earthquake wave in earthquake region are the key factors of early determining earthquake kind possibly; (3) using E_m/ΣE, ΔM methods and combining the small earthquake frequencies in the first day of after main earthquake to determine earthquake kind correctly. Based on it, using h, b, u, F value to analyze the every class sequence step by step; (4) using h value of M6.0 earthquake sequence and b value containing main earthquake to estimate the future strong earthquake magnitude. Using h value of M5.0 earthquake sequence and b value barring main earthquake to estimate the future strong post-earthquake magnitude; (5) tracking son earthquake sequence kind, estimating earthquake magnitude and abnormal dynamic change of parameter to determine whether there will occur strong(post-) earthquake in the after sequence. But you should pay attention to every class sequence relation and background of earthquake activities; (6) after strong earthquakes group, and h value appear high-low-high, it indicate the earthquake cluster activities come into latter time. The h value >1 after biggest earthquake occurred in the earthquake cluster, it is the symbol of sequence in the latter time.
引文
[1]朱令人,苏乃秦,杨马陵.1997年新疆伽师强震群及三次成功的临震预报[J].中国地震,1998,14(2):101—115.
[2]苏乃秦,王海涛.1997年1月21日至1998年8月27日新疆维吾尔自治区伽师强震群[A].见:陈棋福主编.《中国震例》(1997—1999)[M].北京:地震出版社,2003.
[3]杨欣,俞兴宝.强震序列叠加时h值计算及其震情预测应用[J].中国地震,1998,14(4):52—61.
[4]杨欣,高国英.1997年伽师强震群序列特征和震源机制的初步研究[J].地震学报,1998,20(6):573—579.
[5]周仕勇,许忠淮.地震序列研究综述[J].中国地震,1999,15(3):268—277.
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[8]罗灼礼,孟国杰.关于地震丛集特征,成因及临界状态的讨论[J].地震,2002,22(3):1—14.
[9]吴开统,焦远碧,吕培琴,等.地震序列概论[M].北京:北京大学出版社,1990.
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[11]陈荣华,吴开统,刘杰,等.不同地震序列类型的早期特征[J].地震,1994,(1):44—47.
[12]吴开统,彭克银.地震序列类型早期判断的可能性[J].地震,1996,16(1):1—8.
[13]王王争王争,程德利,陈兴东.地震序列的h值快速震型判别与强余震预测[J].地震学刊,1996,(2):13—18.
[14]吴开统,焦远碧,吕培琴,等.b值研究进展综述[J].地震,1986,(5):50—53.
[15]林邦慧,李大鹏,刘杰,等.前震和前震序列的研究[J].地震学报,1994,16(增刊):24—38.
[16]周翠英,张宇霞,王华林,等.地震序列类型的早期判断[A].见:国家地震局预测预防司.地震短期预报的理论与方法——"八五"攻关三级课题论文集[C].北京:地震出版社,1997.
[17]郭铭奎.1989年四川巴塘地震序列特征[J].西北地震学报,1992,14(3):79—83.
[18]刘正荣.地震频度衰减与地震预报的再研究[A].地震预报方法实用化研究文集(地震学专辑)[C].北京:学术书刊出版社,1989.
[19]四川省地震局.1989年四川巴塘强震群[M].北京:地震出版社,1994.
杨欣,强震序列叠加时h值计算和使用及震群序列中部分参数特征研究(新疆地震科学基金资助课题报告).2002.
杨欣.巴楚—伽师6.8级地震对乌恰—喀什地区强震活动影响分析(2004年度新疆地震趋势会商会部分震情研究报告汇编),2003.
新疆维吾尔自治区地震局.震情跟踪工作简报(第3期),2003.
[2]苏乃秦,王海涛.1997年1月21日至1998年8月27日新疆维吾尔自治区伽师强震群[A].见:陈棋福主编.《中国震例》(1997—1999)[M].北京:地震出版社,2003.
[3]杨欣,俞兴宝.强震序列叠加时h值计算及其震情预测应用[J].中国地震,1998,14(4):52—61.
[4]杨欣,高国英.1997年伽师强震群序列特征和震源机制的初步研究[J].地震学报,1998,20(6):573—579.
[5]周仕勇,许忠淮.地震序列研究综述[J].中国地震,1999,15(3):268—277.
[6]朱令人,陈.地震分形[M].北京:地震出版社,2000.
[7]陈,陈凌.分形几何学[M].北京:地震出版社,1998.
[8]罗灼礼,孟国杰.关于地震丛集特征,成因及临界状态的讨论[J].地震,2002,22(3):1—14.
[9]吴开统,焦远碧,吕培琴,等.地震序列概论[M].北京:北京大学出版社,1990.
[10]周惠兰,房桂荣,章爰娣,等.地震震型判断方法探讨[J].西北地震学报,1980,2(2):45—59.
[11]陈荣华,吴开统,刘杰,等.不同地震序列类型的早期特征[J].地震,1994,(1):44—47.
[12]吴开统,彭克银.地震序列类型早期判断的可能性[J].地震,1996,16(1):1—8.
[13]王王争王争,程德利,陈兴东.地震序列的h值快速震型判别与强余震预测[J].地震学刊,1996,(2):13—18.
[14]吴开统,焦远碧,吕培琴,等.b值研究进展综述[J].地震,1986,(5):50—53.
[15]林邦慧,李大鹏,刘杰,等.前震和前震序列的研究[J].地震学报,1994,16(增刊):24—38.
[16]周翠英,张宇霞,王华林,等.地震序列类型的早期判断[A].见:国家地震局预测预防司.地震短期预报的理论与方法——"八五"攻关三级课题论文集[C].北京:地震出版社,1997.
[17]郭铭奎.1989年四川巴塘地震序列特征[J].西北地震学报,1992,14(3):79—83.
[18]刘正荣.地震频度衰减与地震预报的再研究[A].地震预报方法实用化研究文集(地震学专辑)[C].北京:学术书刊出版社,1989.
[19]四川省地震局.1989年四川巴塘强震群[M].北京:地震出版社,1994.
杨欣,强震序列叠加时h值计算和使用及震群序列中部分参数特征研究(新疆地震科学基金资助课题报告).2002.
杨欣.巴楚—伽师6.8级地震对乌恰—喀什地区强震活动影响分析(2004年度新疆地震趋势会商会部分震情研究报告汇编),2003.
新疆维吾尔自治区地震局.震情跟踪工作简报(第3期),2003.
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