利用地质统计学预测煤层厚度
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摘要
煤层厚度是煤矿设计与开采必不可少的数据,准确地预测煤层厚度,不仅能给煤矿提供有力的地质保障,而且还能给煤矿带来巨大的经济效益。煤层厚度预测可根据已知钻井煤层厚度数据通过拟合或回归分析方法来计算,但由于钻孔数据量有限,因此,所预测出的煤层厚度在孔间与外推区域存在较大误差。三维地震资料在横向上具有良好的连续性,若能将稀疏的钻井数据和密集的地震数据有机的结合起来,将有助于提高井间和外推区域煤层厚度的预测精度。协克里金是地质统计学中的一种二元、无偏、最优插值方法,是以区域化变量理论为基础,以变差函数为基本工具。钻井煤层厚度和地震振幅属性在空间上既存在一定的分布规律,又存在局部的随机性,因此可将钻井煤层厚度和地震振幅作为区域化变量,用变差函数进行模拟,预测出的煤层厚度,既可反映钻井数据煤层厚度的变化规律,又可体现出地震数据的变化趋势。利用研究区巷道揭露的见煤点实测煤层厚度数据,对协克里金法预测煤层厚度进行检验,结果发现煤层厚度预测误差大大降低,精度得到明显提高。这种煤层厚度预测方法特别适合在开展过三维地震勘探的煤矿使用。
Coalseam thickness is necessary data for coalmine design and mining.The correct predication result of coalseam thickness not only can provide good geology guarantee for coalmine,but also can bring great economic benefits.Coalseam predicting can be calculated using fitting or regression analysis method according to the known borehole coalseam thickness,but because of the limitation of borehole data amount,there are large errors existenting in predicting thickness between the wells or wells outside area.Seismic data have a good continuity in the transverse,if sparse borehole data could be combined with dense seismic data,it is helpful to increasing the thickness predicting precision between the wells or wells extrapolating zone.Cokriging method is a dualistic,unbiased and optimal interpolation method in geostatistics,and based on regional variables theory and variogram basic tool.Borehole coalseam thickness and seismic amplitude in the space distribution have some regulation and local randomicity,so they can be described as regional variables,and can be simulated by variogram,the thickness estimation can reflect thickness variety regulation of well data,also can direct variety trend of seismic data.According to actual measurement thickness data on the roadway coalseam exposing points in the research area,some Cokriging predicting thickness examination have been done,and the predicting thickness error has become lower.The predicting precision has largely increased.The thickness predicting method is especially suitable for some coal mines which have done 3D seismic exploration.
Coalseam thickness is necessary data for coalmine design and mining.The correct predication result of coalseam thickness not only can provide good geology guarantee for coalmine,but also can bring great economic benefits.Coalseam predicting can be calculated using fitting or regression analysis method according to the known borehole coalseam thickness,but because of the limitation of borehole data amount,there are large errors existenting in predicting thickness between the wells or wells outside area.Seismic data have a good continuity in the transverse,if sparse borehole data could be combined with dense seismic data,it is helpful to increasing the thickness predicting precision between the wells or wells extrapolating zone.Cokriging method is a dualistic,unbiased and optimal interpolation method in geostatistics,and based on regional variables theory and variogram basic tool.Borehole coalseam thickness and seismic amplitude in the space distribution have some regulation and local randomicity,so they can be described as regional variables,and can be simulated by variogram,the thickness estimation can reflect thickness variety regulation of well data,also can direct variety trend of seismic data.According to actual measurement thickness data on the roadway coalseam exposing points in the research area,some Cokriging predicting thickness examination have been done,and the predicting thickness error has become lower.The predicting precision has largely increased.The thickness predicting method is especially suitable for some coal mines which have done 3D seismic exploration.
引文
[1]董守华,许永忠.地震资料谱矩法反演煤层厚度[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报,2005,24(1):38-40.(DONG Shouhua,XU Yongzhong,Spectral moment method to inverse coalseam thickness by seismic data[J].Journal of Liaoning Technical University,2005,24(1):38-40.(in Chinese)
[2]崔若飞,许东.煤层厚度的非线性反演方法[J].勘察科学技术,1999,(3):60-62.(CUI Ruofei,XU Dong.Nonlinear inversion method of coal layer thickness[J].Exploration Science Technology,1999,(3):60-62.(in Chinese))
[3]蔡军,刘卫.利用人工神经网络法预测煤层厚度研究[J].中国煤田地质,2005,17(6):40-42.(CAI Jun,LIU Wei.Coal seam thickness predicting by the use of artificial neural network simulation[J].China Coal Geology,2005,17(6):40-42.(in Chinese))
[4]郭彦省,孟召平,杨瑞昭,等.地震属性及其在煤层厚度预测中的应用[J].中国矿业大学学报,2004,33(5):557-562.(GUO Yansheng,MENG Zhaoping,YANG Ruizhao,et al.Seismic attribute analysis and its application in predicting thickness of coal[J].Journal of China University of Mining and Technology,2004,33(5):557-562.(in Chinese))
[5]董守华,马彦良,周明.煤层厚度与振幅、频率地震属性的正演模拟[J].中国矿业大学学报,2004,33(1):29-32.(DONG Shouhua,MA Yanliang,ZHOU Ming.Forward modeling of relationship between coal seam thickness and seismic attributes of amplitude and frequency[J].Journal of China University of Mining and Technology,2004,33(1):29-32.(in Chinese))
[6]彭苏萍,杜文凤,赵伟,等.煤田三维地震综合解释技术在复杂地质条件下的应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(增1):2760-2765.(PENG Suping,DU Wenfeng,ZHAO Wei,et al.Coalfield3D seismic integrated interpretation technique in complex geological condition[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2008,27(Supp.1):2760-2765.(in Chinese))
[7]林建东,霍全明,吴奕峰.多井约束三维地震反演技术在煤厚预测中的应用[J].中国煤田地质,2003,15(3):43-45.(LIN Jiandong,HUO Quanming,WU Yifeng.Application On3-demensional seismic inversing technology of multiple constraints in prediction of coal thickness[J].China Coal Geology,2003,15(3):43-45.(in Chinese))
[8]崔辉霞,杨文强,赵牧华.钻孔约束频域定量预测煤厚方法研究与应用[J].煤炭科学技术,2006,34(2):6-8.(CUI Huixia,YANG Wenqiang,ZHAO Muhua.Research and application of seam thickness prediction method with borehole restrained frequency area quantified[J].Coal Science and Technology,2006,34(2):6-8.(in Chinese))
[9]张恩珂,柏冠军,郑中刚.地震资料频率域预测煤层厚度方法研究及应用[J].山东科技大学学报(自然科学版),2005,24(4):59-62.(ZHANG Enke,BAI Guanjun,ZHENG Zhonggang.Study of prediction method of coal seam thickness using seismic data frequency domain and its application[J].Journal of Shandong University of Science and Technology(Natural Science),2005,24(4):59-62.(in Chinese))
[10]于师建,王宗胜,刘延欣.小波多尺度分析在煤厚探测中的应用[J].煤田地质与勘探,2005,33(5):70-72.(YU Shijian,WANG Zongsheng,LIU Yanxin.Application of wavelet multiresolution analysis to detecting thickness of coal seam[J].Coal Geology and Exploration,2005,33(5):70-72.(in Chinese))
[11]李黎,王永刚.地质统计学应用综述[J].勘探地球物理进展,2006,29(3):163-169.(LI Li,WANG Yonggang.Review of application of geostatistics[J].Progress in Exploration Geophysics,2006,29(3):163-169.(in Chinese))
[12]Carmen C D,Larry L.Seismic attributes used for reservoir simulation:application to a heavy oil reservoir in Canada[C]//the78th Annual International Meeting,SEG,Expanded Abstracts,2008,27:1471-1475.
[13]Tonn R.Seismic reservoir characterization of Montney Sand in the Peace River Arch area,Canada[J].The Leading Edge.,1998,17(5):643-646.
[14]刘俊杰.地质统计学在预测煤层冲刷带中的应用研究[J].煤炭学报,2004,29(1):49-52.(LIU Junjie.Application study of geostatistics to predict washout zone in coal seam[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2004,29(1):49-52.(in Chinese))
[15]崔洪庆,张振文,张平安.煤厚半变差函数的结构分析[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报(自然科学版),2003,22(3):310-312.(CUI Hongqing,ZHANG Zhenwen,ZHANG Ping′an.Structural analysis of half variation function of coal thickness[J].Journal of Liaoning Technical University(Natural Science),2003,22(3):310-312.(in Chinese))
[16]李岭.地质统计学及其在某铜矿山储量计算中的应用[J].矿业研究与开发,2004,24(5):21-23.(LI Ling.Geostatistics and the corresponding application of reserves estimation in a copper mine[J].Mining Research and Development,2004,24(5):21-23.(in Chinese))
[17]李琼,鄢永玲.地层介质非均质性预测方法技术研究[J].矿物岩石,1999,19(3):86-89.(LI Qiong,YAN Yongling.Study of prediction technique by stratigaphic medium anisotropy method[J].Mineral Petrol,1999,19(3):86-89.(in Chinese))
[18]王泽华,李庆.地质统计学方法在储层预测中的应用[J].新疆石油学院学报,2001,13(1):26-30.(WANG Zehua,LI Qing.Application of geological statistical method in reservoir prediction[J].Journal of Xinjiang Petroleum Institute,2001,13(1):26-30.(in Chinese))
[19]季玉新,曲寿利,王秀玲,等.用地质地震资料计算复杂砂体储层厚度方法与应用实例[J].石油地球物理勘探,2000,35(3):361-365.(JI Yuxin,QU Shouli,WANG Xiuling,et al.A method for complex sand reservoir thickness estimation using geologic and seismic data,and the application example[J].Oil Geophysical Exploration,2000,35(3):361-365.(in Chinese))
[20]刘文岭,夏海英.同位协同克里金方法在储层横向预测中的应用[J].勘探地球物理进展,2004,27(5):367-370.(LIU Wenling,XIA Haiying.The application of collocated Cokriging in reservoir prediction[J].Progress in Exploration Geophysics,2004,27(5):367-370.(in Chinese))
[2]崔若飞,许东.煤层厚度的非线性反演方法[J].勘察科学技术,1999,(3):60-62.(CUI Ruofei,XU Dong.Nonlinear inversion method of coal layer thickness[J].Exploration Science Technology,1999,(3):60-62.(in Chinese))
[3]蔡军,刘卫.利用人工神经网络法预测煤层厚度研究[J].中国煤田地质,2005,17(6):40-42.(CAI Jun,LIU Wei.Coal seam thickness predicting by the use of artificial neural network simulation[J].China Coal Geology,2005,17(6):40-42.(in Chinese))
[4]郭彦省,孟召平,杨瑞昭,等.地震属性及其在煤层厚度预测中的应用[J].中国矿业大学学报,2004,33(5):557-562.(GUO Yansheng,MENG Zhaoping,YANG Ruizhao,et al.Seismic attribute analysis and its application in predicting thickness of coal[J].Journal of China University of Mining and Technology,2004,33(5):557-562.(in Chinese))
[5]董守华,马彦良,周明.煤层厚度与振幅、频率地震属性的正演模拟[J].中国矿业大学学报,2004,33(1):29-32.(DONG Shouhua,MA Yanliang,ZHOU Ming.Forward modeling of relationship between coal seam thickness and seismic attributes of amplitude and frequency[J].Journal of China University of Mining and Technology,2004,33(1):29-32.(in Chinese))
[6]彭苏萍,杜文凤,赵伟,等.煤田三维地震综合解释技术在复杂地质条件下的应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(增1):2760-2765.(PENG Suping,DU Wenfeng,ZHAO Wei,et al.Coalfield3D seismic integrated interpretation technique in complex geological condition[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2008,27(Supp.1):2760-2765.(in Chinese))
[7]林建东,霍全明,吴奕峰.多井约束三维地震反演技术在煤厚预测中的应用[J].中国煤田地质,2003,15(3):43-45.(LIN Jiandong,HUO Quanming,WU Yifeng.Application On3-demensional seismic inversing technology of multiple constraints in prediction of coal thickness[J].China Coal Geology,2003,15(3):43-45.(in Chinese))
[8]崔辉霞,杨文强,赵牧华.钻孔约束频域定量预测煤厚方法研究与应用[J].煤炭科学技术,2006,34(2):6-8.(CUI Huixia,YANG Wenqiang,ZHAO Muhua.Research and application of seam thickness prediction method with borehole restrained frequency area quantified[J].Coal Science and Technology,2006,34(2):6-8.(in Chinese))
[9]张恩珂,柏冠军,郑中刚.地震资料频率域预测煤层厚度方法研究及应用[J].山东科技大学学报(自然科学版),2005,24(4):59-62.(ZHANG Enke,BAI Guanjun,ZHENG Zhonggang.Study of prediction method of coal seam thickness using seismic data frequency domain and its application[J].Journal of Shandong University of Science and Technology(Natural Science),2005,24(4):59-62.(in Chinese))
[10]于师建,王宗胜,刘延欣.小波多尺度分析在煤厚探测中的应用[J].煤田地质与勘探,2005,33(5):70-72.(YU Shijian,WANG Zongsheng,LIU Yanxin.Application of wavelet multiresolution analysis to detecting thickness of coal seam[J].Coal Geology and Exploration,2005,33(5):70-72.(in Chinese))
[11]李黎,王永刚.地质统计学应用综述[J].勘探地球物理进展,2006,29(3):163-169.(LI Li,WANG Yonggang.Review of application of geostatistics[J].Progress in Exploration Geophysics,2006,29(3):163-169.(in Chinese))
[12]Carmen C D,Larry L.Seismic attributes used for reservoir simulation:application to a heavy oil reservoir in Canada[C]//the78th Annual International Meeting,SEG,Expanded Abstracts,2008,27:1471-1475.
[13]Tonn R.Seismic reservoir characterization of Montney Sand in the Peace River Arch area,Canada[J].The Leading Edge.,1998,17(5):643-646.
[14]刘俊杰.地质统计学在预测煤层冲刷带中的应用研究[J].煤炭学报,2004,29(1):49-52.(LIU Junjie.Application study of geostatistics to predict washout zone in coal seam[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2004,29(1):49-52.(in Chinese))
[15]崔洪庆,张振文,张平安.煤厚半变差函数的结构分析[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报(自然科学版),2003,22(3):310-312.(CUI Hongqing,ZHANG Zhenwen,ZHANG Ping′an.Structural analysis of half variation function of coal thickness[J].Journal of Liaoning Technical University(Natural Science),2003,22(3):310-312.(in Chinese))
[16]李岭.地质统计学及其在某铜矿山储量计算中的应用[J].矿业研究与开发,2004,24(5):21-23.(LI Ling.Geostatistics and the corresponding application of reserves estimation in a copper mine[J].Mining Research and Development,2004,24(5):21-23.(in Chinese))
[17]李琼,鄢永玲.地层介质非均质性预测方法技术研究[J].矿物岩石,1999,19(3):86-89.(LI Qiong,YAN Yongling.Study of prediction technique by stratigaphic medium anisotropy method[J].Mineral Petrol,1999,19(3):86-89.(in Chinese))
[18]王泽华,李庆.地质统计学方法在储层预测中的应用[J].新疆石油学院学报,2001,13(1):26-30.(WANG Zehua,LI Qing.Application of geological statistical method in reservoir prediction[J].Journal of Xinjiang Petroleum Institute,2001,13(1):26-30.(in Chinese))
[19]季玉新,曲寿利,王秀玲,等.用地质地震资料计算复杂砂体储层厚度方法与应用实例[J].石油地球物理勘探,2000,35(3):361-365.(JI Yuxin,QU Shouli,WANG Xiuling,et al.A method for complex sand reservoir thickness estimation using geologic and seismic data,and the application example[J].Oil Geophysical Exploration,2000,35(3):361-365.(in Chinese))
[20]刘文岭,夏海英.同位协同克里金方法在储层横向预测中的应用[J].勘探地球物理进展,2004,27(5):367-370.(LIU Wenling,XIA Haiying.The application of collocated Cokriging in reservoir prediction[J].Progress in Exploration Geophysics,2004,27(5):367-370.(in Chinese))
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