利用Eaton法计算地层孔隙压力的不确定性分析
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摘要
鉴于地层孔隙压力不确定性给钻井工程设计与施工带来的诸多困难,提出孔隙压力不确定度的概念,并对其不确定性进行定量表征。以目前应用最为广泛的Eaton法为例,推导了孔隙压力不确定度的理论计算模型,模型考虑了数据测量误差、压实趋势线方程、Eaton指数、上覆岩层压力以及静水压力等因素,并利用中国石化PG地区综合矿场数据进行了算例分析。结果表明,该方法给出了孔隙压力不确定度的范围、影响主因素以及相关因素对不确定度的影响规律,且计算结果与录井钻井液密度、试气实测结果相符,证明提出的孔隙压力不确定性评价方法可行,计算结果真实、可靠。
In view of the difficulties the uncertainty of pore-pressure brought to the drilling engineering design and construction,the concept of pore pressure uncertainty is present,and the calculation model for porepressure uncertainty is derivated for Eaton method.An example is analyzed using synthesis data from PG block in northeast Sichuan region.The method presented here gives the range and main influencing factors of pore pressure uncertainty,and the influence law of related factors to uncertainty.The calculated results are in correspondence with actual mud density and the results of gas production test,which proves that the evaluation method of pore pressure uncertainty is feasible,the results has high accuracy and validity.
In view of the difficulties the uncertainty of pore-pressure brought to the drilling engineering design and construction,the concept of pore pressure uncertainty is present,and the calculation model for porepressure uncertainty is derivated for Eaton method.An example is analyzed using synthesis data from PG block in northeast Sichuan region.The method presented here gives the range and main influencing factors of pore pressure uncertainty,and the influence law of related factors to uncertainty.The calculated results are in correspondence with actual mud density and the results of gas production test,which proves that the evaluation method of pore pressure uncertainty is feasible,the results has high accuracy and validity.
引文
[1]Sayers C M,Johnson G M,Denyer G.Predrill pore-pressure prediction using seismic data[J].Geophysics,2002,67(4):1286–1292.
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[8]柯珂,管志川,周行.深水探井钻前含可信度的地层孔隙压力确立方法[J].中国石油大学学报:自然科学版,2009,33(5):61–67.Ke Ke,Guan Zhichuan,Zhou Hang.An approach to de-termining pre-drilling formation pore pressure with credi-bilityfordeepwaterexplorationwells[J].JourmalofChinaUniversity of Petroleum,2009,33(5):61–67.
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[10]臧艳彬,王瑞和,李新芝,等.基于密度测井资料计算上覆岩层压力的不确定性分析[J].中国石油大学学报:自然科学版,2010,34(6):60–65.Zang Yanbin,Wang Ruihe,Li Xinzhi,et al.Uncertain-ty analysis of calculating overburden pressure based ondensity logging data[J].Journal of China University ofPetroleum,2010,34(6):60–65.
[11]International Organization for Standardization.Guide tothe expression of uncertainty in measurement[M].ISO,Geneva,1995.
[12]李凯,李彦鹏.地震多分量资料品质影响因素分析[J].石油地球物理勘探,2008,43(增刊1):5–11.Li Kai,Li Yan Peng.Analysis of factors affecting seis-mic multi-component data quality[J].Oil GeophysicalProspecting,2008,43(Supplement 1):5–11.
[13]张建宁.地震速度谱资料预测地层压力的陷阱分析[J].勘探地球物理进展,2005,28(1):51–56.Zhang Jianning.Pitfalls in prediction of formation pres-sure using seismic velocity[J].Progress in ExplorationGeophsics,2005,28(1):51–56.
[14]Yu G.How does seismic data quality influence pore pres-sure estimation and interpretation?[J].Houston:Interna-tional Exposition and Annual Meeting,2009.
[15]樊洪海.测井资料检测地层孔隙压力传统方法讨论[J].石油勘探与开发,2003,30(4):72–74.Fan Honghai.Discussions on the traditional pore pressureevaluation methods by using well logging[J].PetroleumExploration and Development,2003,30(4):72–74.
[16]Eaton B A.The equation for geopressure prediction fromwell logs[C].SPE 5544,1975.
[17]苏义脑,刘岩生.科学探索井地层压力计算[J].石油学报,2001,22(1):78–82.
[2]Lopez J L,Rappold P M,Ugueto G A,et al.Integrat-ed shared earth model:3D pore-pressure prediction anduncertainty analysis[J].The Leading Edge,2004,23(1):52–59.
[3]夏宏泉,刘之的,陈平,等.碳酸盐岩剖面地层孔隙压力计算方法研究[J].西南石油学院学报,2003,25(5):5–9.Xia Hongquan,Liu Zhide,Chen Ping,et al.Studying oncalculating method of the formation pore pressure for car-bonate rock profile[J].Jourmal of South Petroleum Insti-tute,2003,25(5):5–9.
[4]Ted Moon.SPE/AAPG/SEG workshop addresses pore-pressure uncertainties[J].The Leading Edge,2007,26(8):970–971
[5]FalcaoJL.Uncertaintiesintheporepressureevaluationindeepwater:a statistical approach[C].SPE 78247,2002.
[6]Sayers C M,Boer L D,Nagy Z R,et al.Well-constrainedseismic estimation of pore pressure with uncertainty[J].The Leading edge,2006,25(12):1254–1256.
[7]Liang QJ.Application of quantitative risk analysis to porepressure and fracture gradient prediction[C].SPE 77354,2002.
[8]柯珂,管志川,周行.深水探井钻前含可信度的地层孔隙压力确立方法[J].中国石油大学学报:自然科学版,2009,33(5):61–67.Ke Ke,Guan Zhichuan,Zhou Hang.An approach to de-termining pre-drilling formation pore pressure with credi-bilityfordeepwaterexplorationwells[J].JourmalofChinaUniversity of Petroleum,2009,33(5):61–67.
[9]Malinverno A,Sayers C M,Marta J W.Integrating di-verse measurements to predict pore pressure with uncer-tainties while drilling[C].SPE 90001,2004.
[10]臧艳彬,王瑞和,李新芝,等.基于密度测井资料计算上覆岩层压力的不确定性分析[J].中国石油大学学报:自然科学版,2010,34(6):60–65.Zang Yanbin,Wang Ruihe,Li Xinzhi,et al.Uncertain-ty analysis of calculating overburden pressure based ondensity logging data[J].Journal of China University ofPetroleum,2010,34(6):60–65.
[11]International Organization for Standardization.Guide tothe expression of uncertainty in measurement[M].ISO,Geneva,1995.
[12]李凯,李彦鹏.地震多分量资料品质影响因素分析[J].石油地球物理勘探,2008,43(增刊1):5–11.Li Kai,Li Yan Peng.Analysis of factors affecting seis-mic multi-component data quality[J].Oil GeophysicalProspecting,2008,43(Supplement 1):5–11.
[13]张建宁.地震速度谱资料预测地层压力的陷阱分析[J].勘探地球物理进展,2005,28(1):51–56.Zhang Jianning.Pitfalls in prediction of formation pres-sure using seismic velocity[J].Progress in ExplorationGeophsics,2005,28(1):51–56.
[14]Yu G.How does seismic data quality influence pore pres-sure estimation and interpretation?[J].Houston:Interna-tional Exposition and Annual Meeting,2009.
[15]樊洪海.测井资料检测地层孔隙压力传统方法讨论[J].石油勘探与开发,2003,30(4):72–74.Fan Honghai.Discussions on the traditional pore pressureevaluation methods by using well logging[J].PetroleumExploration and Development,2003,30(4):72–74.
[16]Eaton B A.The equation for geopressure prediction fromwell logs[C].SPE 5544,1975.
[17]苏义脑,刘岩生.科学探索井地层压力计算[J].石油学报,2001,22(1):78–82.
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