中国大陆及邻区、川滇成组强震活动特征初步研究
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摘要
将中国大陆及其邻区1902年以来MS≥7地震的成组活动划分出7组,其首发大震分别为1902年阿图什8.2级,1911年阿拉木图8.2级,1920年海原8.5级,1931年富蕴8.0级,1946年缅甸7.8级,1966年邢台7.2级,1988年缅甸7.2级。川滇MS≥6.7地震成组活动划分出5组,其首发强震为1913年峨山7.0级,1933年茂县7.5级,1948年理塘7.3级,1966年东川6.5级、6.2级,1988年澜沧7.4级。其中,川滇MS≥7的首发大震滞后中国大陆首发大震几个月至4年不等。按成组大震的界定,目前中国大陆处于1998~2007年(估计)的大震少发时段。川滇未来1~2年的大震形势为川滇西部存在发生大震的可能性。中国大陆新一轮强震成组活动中的大地震将可能在2007~2009年前后发生,主体危险区可能为天山地震带中段及川滇东部。2007~2008年可能出现5~6级地震的增强过程。巧家—东川一带可能最先发生6级地震。
Since 1902,the group activities of earthquakes with M_S≥7 are divided into 7 groups in China mainland and its neighbouring area.The strong earthquakes occurred firstly Atushi earthquake with(M_S8.2) in 1902,Almuty one with M_S8.2 in 1911,Haiyuan one with M_S8.5 in 1920,Fuyun one with M_S8.0 in 1931,Burma one with M_S7.8 in 1946,Xingtai one with M_S7.2 in 1966 and Burma one with M_S7.2 in 1988 respectively.The group activities of earthquakes with M_S≥6.7 are divided into 5 groups in Sichuan and Yunnan.The strong earthquakes occurred firstly the Eshan earthquake with(M_S7.0) in 1913,Mao county one with M_S7.5 in 1933,Litang one with M_S7.3 in 1948,Dongchuan ones with M_S6.5 and M_S6.2 in 1966 and Lancang one with M_S7.4 in 1988.In them,the first strong earthquakes in Sichuan and Yunnan lagged ones of China mainland from several months to 4 years.According to the limits of the group strong earthquakes,China mainland is at present the time of few strong earthquakes in 1998～2007(According to estimate).The western of Sichuan and Yunnan will occur possibly strong earthquakes in the future of 1～2 year.A new turn of group strong earthquakes maybe occur possibly around 2007～2009.The danger zone of the main body is possibly the middle part of Tianshan earthquake belt and the eastern of Sichuan and Yunnan.In 2007～2008,it appears possibly the enhancement processes of earthquakes with M_S5～6.It is possibly to occur firstly earthquake with M_S6 in Qiaojia-Dongchuan area.
Since 1902,the group activities of earthquakes with M_S≥7 are divided into 7 groups in China mainland and its neighbouring area.The strong earthquakes occurred firstly Atushi earthquake with(M_S8.2) in 1902,Almuty one with M_S8.2 in 1911,Haiyuan one with M_S8.5 in 1920,Fuyun one with M_S8.0 in 1931,Burma one with M_S7.8 in 1946,Xingtai one with M_S7.2 in 1966 and Burma one with M_S7.2 in 1988 respectively.The group activities of earthquakes with M_S≥6.7 are divided into 5 groups in Sichuan and Yunnan.The strong earthquakes occurred firstly the Eshan earthquake with(M_S7.0) in 1913,Mao county one with M_S7.5 in 1933,Litang one with M_S7.3 in 1948,Dongchuan ones with M_S6.5 and M_S6.2 in 1966 and Lancang one with M_S7.4 in 1988.In them,the first strong earthquakes in Sichuan and Yunnan lagged ones of China mainland from several months to 4 years.According to the limits of the group strong earthquakes,China mainland is at present the time of few strong earthquakes in 1998～2007(According to estimate).The western of Sichuan and Yunnan will occur possibly strong earthquakes in the future of 1～2 year.A new turn of group strong earthquakes maybe occur possibly around 2007～2009.The danger zone of the main body is possibly the middle part of Tianshan earthquake belt and the eastern of Sichuan and Yunnan.In 2007～2008,it appears possibly the enhancement processes of earthquakes with M_S5～6.It is possibly to occur firstly earthquake with M_S6 in Qiaojia-Dongchuan area.
引文
[1]黄圣睦,董瑞英.川滇藏邻界区巴塘—丽江地震块体活动特征的初步探讨[J].地震研究,1999,22(1):1-7.
[2]黄圣睦.康定、东川地段强震活动对比及其在川滇强震预测中的意义[J].地震研究,1993,16(3):239-245.
[3]黄圣睦.鲜水河带地震衰期中的间歇震[J].地震研究,1981,4(2):302-307.
[2]黄圣睦.康定、东川地段强震活动对比及其在川滇强震预测中的意义[J].地震研究,1993,16(3):239-245.
[3]黄圣睦.鲜水河带地震衰期中的间歇震[J].地震研究,1981,4(2):302-307.
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