祁连山—六盘山地震带M_S≥5.1地震时空对称性研究
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摘要
根据1954年以来祁连山—六盘山地震带的地震数据,通过三元、四元、五元可公度计算、蝴蝶结构图分析和可公度结构系分析,对该地区地震灾害的时间对称性进行了趋势判断。理论计算结果表明:祁连山—六盘山地震带在2015年和2016年这两个年份强震信号较强,有可能发生较大震级地震。根据空间对称性和强震震中经、纬向迁移特征分析,判断出下一次地震发生地点大致在36°~39°N,95°~101°E区域。本研究可丰富重大灾害趋势判断研究案例。
Disaster trend evaluation is an important method for improving the accuracy of earthquake forecasting.On the basis of seismic data(MS≥5.1earthquakes)of Qilian and Liupan mountains obtained since 1954,the symmetry and tendency of earthquake disasters are analyzed in this study and are evaluated by using the methods of commensurability information extraction,butterfly structure diagram,and commensurability degree structure.In addition,the space-time symmetry and trends of earthquakes in the Qilian-Liupan mountain seismic belts are analyzed.The results show strong earthquake signals in 2015 and 2016and the possibility of greater magnitude earthquakes.Spatial symmetry is used to predict that the next earthquake may occur in the region of 36°~39°N,95°~101°E.This study can be used to enrich the study of the major disaster tendency evaluation.
Disaster trend evaluation is an important method for improving the accuracy of earthquake forecasting.On the basis of seismic data(MS≥5.1earthquakes)of Qilian and Liupan mountains obtained since 1954,the symmetry and tendency of earthquake disasters are analyzed in this study and are evaluated by using the methods of commensurability information extraction,butterfly structure diagram,and commensurability degree structure.In addition,the space-time symmetry and trends of earthquakes in the Qilian-Liupan mountain seismic belts are analyzed.The results show strong earthquake signals in 2015 and 2016and the possibility of greater magnitude earthquakes.Spatial symmetry is used to predict that the next earthquake may occur in the region of 36°~39°N,95°~101°E.This study can be used to enrich the study of the major disaster tendency evaluation.
引文
[1]柴炽章,马禾青,金春华.祁连山—六盘山地震带中强地震活动特点及震前异常特征[J].西北地震学报,2013,25(4):355-357.CHAI Chi-zhang,MA He-qing,JIN Chun-hua.Features of Moderate-strong Earthquake Activity And Anomalous Features Before Earthquakes in Qilian Mountains-Liupan Mountain Seismic Belt[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2013,25(4):355-357.(in Chinese)
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[10]张玲玲,董婕,延军平,等.对称性与西藏南部MS≥6.6级地震趋势判断[J].高原地震,2012,24(3):2-4.ZHANG Ling-ling,DONG Jie,YAN Jun-ping,et al.The Symmetry and the Tendency Judgment of(MS≥6.6)Earthquakes in Southern Tibet[J].Plateau Earthquake Research,2012,24(3):2-4.(in Chinese)
[11]周民都,王椿镛,曾融生.青藏高原东北缘地壳上地幔速度结构的地震层析成像研究[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(3):225-231.ZHOU Min-du,WANG Chun-yun,ZENG Rong-sheng.Seismic Tomography of the Velocity Structure of the Crust and Upper Mantle in Northeastern Margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2012,34(3):225-231.(in Chinese)
[2]延军平.重大自然灾害时空对称性研究[M].西安:陕西师范大学出版总社有限公司,2013:52-60.YAN Jun-ping.Study of Space-time Symmetry for Momentous Natural Disaster[M].Xi’an:Shaanxi Normal University General Publishing House CO,LTD,2013:52-60.(in Chinese)
[3]翁文波.预测论基础[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1984:123,131,137-138.WENG Wen-bo.Prediction Theory[M].Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,1984:123,131,137-138.(in Chinese)
[4]翁文波.可公度性[J].地球物理学报,1981,24(2):151-154.WENG Wen-bo.Commensurability[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,1981,24(2):151-154.(in Chinese)
[5]门可佩.新疆及其邻区MS≥7强震的预测研究[J].西北地震学报,1994,16(4):29-35.MEN Ke-pei.Study On Prediction of Strong Earthquakes(MS≥7)in Xinjiang and Nearby Area[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,1994,16(4):29-35.(in Chinese)
[6]黄旭涛,温瑞智,任叶飞,等.2013年7月22日岷县漳县6.6级地震强震记录及特征分析[J].地震工程学报,2013,35(3):490-496.HUANG Xu-tao,WEN Rui-zhi,REN Ye-fei,et al.Strong Motion Records and Its Characteristics in Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6Earthquake on July 22,2013[J].China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2013,35(3):490-496.(in Chinese)
[7]白晶,延军平,苏坤慧.新疆MS≥7地震时空对称性及未来趋势判断[J].内陆地震,2010,24(4):324-329.BAI Jing,YAN Jun-ping,SU Kun-hui.The Time-space Symmetry and the Tendency Judgment of Future(MS≥7)Earthquake in Xinjiang[J].Inland Earthquake,2010,24(4):324-329.(in Chinese)
[8]朱令人.强震活动的可公度性研究——以新疆乌恰—帕米尔大震为例[J].西北地震学报,1987,9(3):99-102.ZHU Ling-ren.Study on Commensurable Characteristics of Strong Earthquakes Activities Regard Strong Earthquakes in Wuqia-Pamier Area in Xinjiang as Sample[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,1987,9(3):99-102.(in Chinese)
[9]毛可,石特临,杨立明.南北地震带强震迁移特征及其预测意义[J].西北地震学报,1997,19(4):6-11.MAO Ke,SHI Te-lin,YANG Li-ming.The Migratory Character of Strong Earthquakes in North-South Seismic Belt and Its Significance for Prediction[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,1997,19(4):6-11.(in Chinese)
[10]张玲玲,董婕,延军平,等.对称性与西藏南部MS≥6.6级地震趋势判断[J].高原地震,2012,24(3):2-4.ZHANG Ling-ling,DONG Jie,YAN Jun-ping,et al.The Symmetry and the Tendency Judgment of(MS≥6.6)Earthquakes in Southern Tibet[J].Plateau Earthquake Research,2012,24(3):2-4.(in Chinese)
[11]周民都,王椿镛,曾融生.青藏高原东北缘地壳上地幔速度结构的地震层析成像研究[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(3):225-231.ZHOU Min-du,WANG Chun-yun,ZENG Rong-sheng.Seismic Tomography of the Velocity Structure of the Crust and Upper Mantle in Northeastern Margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2012,34(3):225-231.(in Chinese)
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