强震的孕育规律与孕震模式
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摘要
针对强震能否预测以及如何预测的科学难题,建立孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论,发现强震孕育过程的指数规律:sf(k)=1.48ksc,其中sf(k)和sc分别为第k个锁固体断裂点与第一个锁固段膨胀起点对应的累加Be-nioff应变,可以利用锁固段在其变形膨胀点处开始发生的震群事件(加速性地震活动前兆)预测未来大震,并给出了强震四要素相关预测方法。通过对诸多历史强震(如邢台地震、海城地震、汶川地震、玉树地震等)的回溯性检验分析表明:强震可以预测,且其孕震过程都遵循着上述简单的共性力学规律。在此基础上,归纳出4种典型强震的孕震模式,即大震震级呈"大—小—大"型,大震震级呈连续上升型,锁固段快速连续破裂型与标准型。此外,根据相关强震预测理论方法,对有关抗震救灾未来研究的方向提出如下建议:建议加强活动断裂位置精确定位、性质判定的地震地质研究,并开展孕震区锁固段(闭锁区域)判识的地质与地球物理研究等。
Aiming at whether the strong earthquake can be predicted and how to predict,the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system is developed.An exponential law describing the seismogenic process of strong earthquakes(s_f(k)=1.48ks_c) is found where s_f(k) and s_c are cumulative Benioff strain corresponding to the rupture point of the kth locked patch and dilation point of the first locked patch respectively,k is the number of locked patches.In other words,the oncoming strong earthquake can be predicted by utilizing the earthquake swarm events(accelerating seismicity precursor) produced in the dilatancy onset point of locked patch.Furthermore,associated prediction method,including the magnitude,place,critical strain(corresponding to the occurrence time of earthquake),and the hypocentral depth of the oncoming strong earthquake are provided based on this new method.Then many earthquakes(such as Xingtai Earthquake,Haicheng Earthquake,Wenchuan Earthquake,Yushu Earthquake and so on) were retrospectively analyzed.The results indicate that the seismogenic process of strong earthquake obeys a simple mechanic law.The seismogenic mode can be classified into the following four types: large-small-large earthquake magnitude mode in a siesmogenic period,continuously rising large earthquake magnitude mode in an earthquake sequence,quickly and continuously fracturing mode of multiple locked patches,and standard earthquake mode.Moreover,the future research focus in the earthquake relief is also suggested.
Aiming at whether the strong earthquake can be predicted and how to predict,the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system is developed.An exponential law describing the seismogenic process of strong earthquakes(s_f(k)=1.48ks_c) is found where s_f(k) and s_c are cumulative Benioff strain corresponding to the rupture point of the kth locked patch and dilation point of the first locked patch respectively,k is the number of locked patches.In other words,the oncoming strong earthquake can be predicted by utilizing the earthquake swarm events(accelerating seismicity precursor) produced in the dilatancy onset point of locked patch.Furthermore,associated prediction method,including the magnitude,place,critical strain(corresponding to the occurrence time of earthquake),and the hypocentral depth of the oncoming strong earthquake are provided based on this new method.Then many earthquakes(such as Xingtai Earthquake,Haicheng Earthquake,Wenchuan Earthquake,Yushu Earthquake and so on) were retrospectively analyzed.The results indicate that the seismogenic process of strong earthquake obeys a simple mechanic law.The seismogenic mode can be classified into the following four types: large-small-large earthquake magnitude mode in a siesmogenic period,continuously rising large earthquake magnitude mode in an earthquake sequence,quickly and continuously fracturing mode of multiple locked patches,and standard earthquake mode.Moreover,the future research focus in the earthquake relief is also suggested.
引文
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[18]秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫,等.西藏地区未来强震预测[J].地球物理学进展,2010,25(6):1879-1886.
[19]Lei X L.How do Asperities Fracture An Experimental Studyof Unbroken Asperities[J].Earth and Planetary Science Let-ters,2003,213(3/4):347-359.
[20]Jaume S C,Sykes L R.Evolving Towards a Critical Point:aReview of Accelerating Seismic Moment/energy Release Priorto Large and Great Earthquakes[J].Pure and Applied Geo-physics,1999,155(3/4):279-305
[21]秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫,等.新疆与其边境地区、内蒙古地区及华东、华南与台湾部分地区未来强震预测[J].地球物理学进展,2011,26(1):21-31.
[22]秦四清,薛雷.云南盈江Ms5.8级地震和缅甸Ms7.2级地震预测总结及震后趋势分析[J].地球物理学进展,2011,26(2):462-468.
[23]Tang C A.Numerical Simulation of Progressive Rock Failureand Associated Seismicity[J].International Journal of RockMechanics and Mining Sciences,1997,34(2):249-261.
[2]McCann W R,Nishenko S P,Sykes L R,et al.Seismic Gapsand Plate Tectonics:Seismic Potential for Major Boundaries[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,1979,117(6):1082-1147.
[3]傅承义.有关地震预告的几个问题[J].科学通报,1963(3):30-36.
[4]Sobolev G A,Chelidze T L,Zavyalov A D,et al.Maps ofExpected Earthquakes Based on a Combination of Parameters[J].Tectonophysics,1991,193(4):255-265.
[5]Rundle J B,Klein W,Tiampo K,et al.Linear Pattern Dyna-mics in Nonlinear Threshold Systems[J].Physical Review E,2000,61:2418-2431.
[6]Keilis-Borok V I,Knopoff L,Rotwain I M,et al.Intermediate-term Prediction of Occurrence Times of Strong Earthquakes[J].Nature,1988,335:690-694.
[7]Mignan A,King G C P,Bowman D.A Mathematical Formula-tion of Accelerating Moment Release Based on the Stress Ac-cumulation Model[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2007,111(B7):1-9.
[8]陈运泰.地震预测:回顾与展望[J].中国科学:D辑,2009,39(12):1633-1658.
[9]Geller R J,Jackson D D,Kagan Y Y,et al.Earthquakes Can-not Be Predicted[J].Science,1997,275:1616.
[10]秦四清,李造鼎,张倬元,等.岩石声发射技术概论[M].成都:西南交通大学出版社,1993.
[11]秦四清,徐锡伟,胡平,等.孕震断层的多锁固段脆性破裂机制与地震预测新方法的探索[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(4):1001-1014.
[12]秦四清,王媛媛,马平.崩滑灾害临界位移演化的指数律[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2010,29(5):873-880.
[13]秦四清,薛雷,王媛媛,等.对孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论的进一步验证及有关科学问题的讨论[J].地球物理学进展,2010,25(3):749-758.
[14]秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫,等.青海、甘肃与宁夏地区未来大地震预测分析[J].地球物理学进展,2010,25(4):1168-1174.
[15]秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫,等.山东、河北、河南、山西、辽宁海城与京津地区未来中强地震预测[J].地球物理学进展,2010,25(5):1539-1549.
[16]秦四清,薛雷,徐锡伟,等.川滇地区未来强震预测与汶川Mw7.9级地震孕震过程分析[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(11):2639-2650.
[17]秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫,等.中国未来强震预测文集[M].北京:中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所,2010.
[18]秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫,等.西藏地区未来强震预测[J].地球物理学进展,2010,25(6):1879-1886.
[19]Lei X L.How do Asperities Fracture An Experimental Studyof Unbroken Asperities[J].Earth and Planetary Science Let-ters,2003,213(3/4):347-359.
[20]Jaume S C,Sykes L R.Evolving Towards a Critical Point:aReview of Accelerating Seismic Moment/energy Release Priorto Large and Great Earthquakes[J].Pure and Applied Geo-physics,1999,155(3/4):279-305
[21]秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫,等.新疆与其边境地区、内蒙古地区及华东、华南与台湾部分地区未来强震预测[J].地球物理学进展,2011,26(1):21-31.
[22]秦四清,薛雷.云南盈江Ms5.8级地震和缅甸Ms7.2级地震预测总结及震后趋势分析[J].地球物理学进展,2011,26(2):462-468.
[23]Tang C A.Numerical Simulation of Progressive Rock Failureand Associated Seismicity[J].International Journal of RockMechanics and Mining Sciences,1997,34(2):249-261.
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