汶川震区暴雨泥石流危险范围预测研究
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摘要
汶川地震发生后,灾区暴雨泥石流活动进入一个新的活跃期。根据对北川震区2008年9月24日暴雨泥石流调查,泥石流流域中地震诱发大量滑坡导致松散物源巨大,泥石流过程的洪峰流量比通常的要大数倍,应用以往泥石流危险范围预测模型进行计算的结果与实际的误差较大。因此,需要建立适用于强震区的泥石流危险范围预测方法。本文以9.24北川暴雨泥石流为典型实例,结合野外调查,利用震后高分辨航空图像和9.24暴雨后SPOT5图像分别提取泥石流发生前流域中滑坡物源储量及发生后形成的堆积扇特征数据,应用多元回归方法建立了汶川震区泥石流危险范围预测模型,该方法可用于估算泥石流最大堆积距离和堆积宽度。验证和应用结果表明:该模型适用于强震区泥石流危险范围的预测,模型方法可为震区重建中安全地段选择和未来地震区风险管理提供重要依据。
The rainstorm induced debris flows have entered a new active period after the Wenchuan Earthquake.Debris flows have huge energy to drain a large amount of sediments and their peak discharges have several times of the normal events.Such results are based on field observation of the rainstorm induced debris flows on 24 September 2008 in the Beichuan epicenter areas.This phenomenon is due to the huge loose materials of earthquake induced landslides in the debris flow watershed.Therefore,it has obvious errors if the existing models are applied to estimate the hazardous zones of debris flows in the epicenter areas.In this way,it needs to establish an appropriate model to predict possible hazardous zones of debris flows in the Wenchuan Earthquake epicenter.This study selects the 9.24 rainstorm induced debris flows as a typical case.It uses the high resolution aerial photograph and SPOT5 images to extract a set of data of landslide volume in debris flow drainage basin and also geometrical dimension of depositional fans.Applying the multivariate regression analysis,a mathematical model is established to estimate the maximum runout distance and depositional width.The validation and application show that the new model is suitable for predicting debris flow hazardous zones in the Wenchuan Earthquake areas.The intent of the study will help future decision makers in the selection of safe sites during the rehabilitation process and also be used as an important basis for landslide risk-management in the rehabilitation area.
The rainstorm induced debris flows have entered a new active period after the Wenchuan Earthquake.Debris flows have huge energy to drain a large amount of sediments and their peak discharges have several times of the normal events.Such results are based on field observation of the rainstorm induced debris flows on 24 September 2008 in the Beichuan epicenter areas.This phenomenon is due to the huge loose materials of earthquake induced landslides in the debris flow watershed.Therefore,it has obvious errors if the existing models are applied to estimate the hazardous zones of debris flows in the epicenter areas.In this way,it needs to establish an appropriate model to predict possible hazardous zones of debris flows in the Wenchuan Earthquake epicenter.This study selects the 9.24 rainstorm induced debris flows as a typical case.It uses the high resolution aerial photograph and SPOT5 images to extract a set of data of landslide volume in debris flow drainage basin and also geometrical dimension of depositional fans.Applying the multivariate regression analysis,a mathematical model is established to estimate the maximum runout distance and depositional width.The validation and application show that the new model is suitable for predicting debris flow hazardous zones in the Wenchuan Earthquake areas.The intent of the study will help future decision makers in the selection of safe sites during the rehabilitation process and also be used as an important basis for landslide risk-management in the rehabilitation area.
引文
[1]Tang C,Zhu J,Li W L.Rainfall triggered debris flows after Wen-chuan earthquake.Bull.Eng.Geol.Environ.,2009,68:187～194.
[2]唐川,梁京涛.汶川震区北川9.24暴雨泥石流特征研究[J].工程地质学报,2008,16(6):751～758.Tang Chuan,Liang Jingtao.Characteristics ofdebris flow in beichuan epicenter of the Wenchuan earthquake triggered by rain-storm on September24,2008.Journal of Engineering Geology,2008,16(6):751～758.
[3]谢洪,钟敦伦,矫震,张金山.2008年汶川地震重灾区的泥石流[J].山地学报,2008,27(4):501～509.Xie Hong,Zhong Dunlun,Jiao Zhen,Zhang Jinshan.Debris flow in Wenchuan quake-hit area in2008.Journal of Mountain Science,2008,27(4):501～509.
[4]崔鹏,韦方强,何思明,等.5.12汶川地震诱发的山地灾害及减灾措施[J].山地学报,2008,27(3):280～282.Cui Peng,Wei Fangqiang,He Siming,et al.Mountain disasters in-duced by the earthquake of May12in Wenchuan and the disasters mitigation.Journal of Mountain Science,2008,27(3):280～282.
[5]王思敬.极端地质灾害与风险[J].工程地质学报,2011,19(3):289～296.Wang Sijing.Extreme geo-disasters and risks.Journal of Engineering Geology,2011,19(3):289～296.
[6]Takahashi T.Estimation of potential debris flows and their hazardous zones;soft counter measures for a disaster.Natural Dis-aster Science,1981,3:57～89.
[7]Cannon SH,Savage WZ.A mass-change model for the estimation of debris-flow runout.Journal of Geology,1988,96:221～227.
[8]Rickenmann D.Debris-flow hazards and related phenomena,Praxis,Chichester,UK.runout prediction methods[A].In:Jakob M and Hungr O(Eds.).Debris-flow hazards and related phenomena[C].2005,305～324.
[9]Hungr O,Morgan GC,Kellerhals R.Quantitative analysis of debris torrent hazard for design of remedial measures.Canadian Geotech-nical Journal,1984,21(4):663～677.
[10]Ikeya H.Debris flow and its countermeasures,Japan.Bulletin of the International Association of Engineering Geology,1989,40:15～33.
[11]Rickenmann D.Empirical relationships for debris flows.Natural Hazards,1999,19:47～77.
[12]Adam B,Prochaska Paul M,Santi Jerry D,Higgins Susan H Can-non.Debris-flow runout predictions based on the average channel slope(ACS)[J].Engineering Geology,2008,98:29～40.
[13]Berti M,Simoni A.Prediction of debris flow inundation areas using empirical mobility relationships.Geomorphology,2007,90:144～161.
[14]Hurlimann M,Rickenmann D,Medina V,Bateman A.Evaluation of approaches to calculate debris-flow parameters for hazad assess-ment.Engineering Geology,2008,102:152～163.
[15]刘希林,唐川,朱静,等.泥石流危险范围的流域背景预测法[J].自然灾害学报,1992,1(3):56～67.Liu Xilin,Tang Chuan,Zhu Jing,et al.The drainage background forecast on the risk range of debris flow.Journal of Natural Disas-ters,1992,1(3):56～67.
[16]刘希林,唐川.泥石流危险性评价[M].北京:科学出版社.1995.Liu Xilin,Tang Chuan.Hazard Assessment of Debris Flow.Beijing:Science Press,1995.
[17]Hürlimann M,Copons R,Altimir J.2006.Detailed debris flow hazard assessment in Andorra,A multidisciplinary approach.Geo-morphology,78:359～372.
[18]Lin C W,Liu SH,Lee SY,Liu CC.2006.Impacts on the Chi-Chi earthquake on subsequent rain-induced landslides in central Tai-wan.Engineering Geology,86:87～101.
[19]Liu J G,Tang C,Kusky Timothy.Emergency geohazard mapping for Wenchuan earthquake disaster in China[A].Proceedings of the ALOS PI2008Symposium[C].European Space Agency,Netherlands,2008,664～669.
[20]Lorente A,Beguerua S,Garcia-Ruiz JM.Debris Flow Characteristics and relationships in the central Spanish Pyrenees.Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,2003,3:683～692.
[2]唐川,梁京涛.汶川震区北川9.24暴雨泥石流特征研究[J].工程地质学报,2008,16(6):751～758.Tang Chuan,Liang Jingtao.Characteristics ofdebris flow in beichuan epicenter of the Wenchuan earthquake triggered by rain-storm on September24,2008.Journal of Engineering Geology,2008,16(6):751～758.
[3]谢洪,钟敦伦,矫震,张金山.2008年汶川地震重灾区的泥石流[J].山地学报,2008,27(4):501～509.Xie Hong,Zhong Dunlun,Jiao Zhen,Zhang Jinshan.Debris flow in Wenchuan quake-hit area in2008.Journal of Mountain Science,2008,27(4):501～509.
[4]崔鹏,韦方强,何思明,等.5.12汶川地震诱发的山地灾害及减灾措施[J].山地学报,2008,27(3):280～282.Cui Peng,Wei Fangqiang,He Siming,et al.Mountain disasters in-duced by the earthquake of May12in Wenchuan and the disasters mitigation.Journal of Mountain Science,2008,27(3):280～282.
[5]王思敬.极端地质灾害与风险[J].工程地质学报,2011,19(3):289～296.Wang Sijing.Extreme geo-disasters and risks.Journal of Engineering Geology,2011,19(3):289～296.
[6]Takahashi T.Estimation of potential debris flows and their hazardous zones;soft counter measures for a disaster.Natural Dis-aster Science,1981,3:57～89.
[7]Cannon SH,Savage WZ.A mass-change model for the estimation of debris-flow runout.Journal of Geology,1988,96:221～227.
[8]Rickenmann D.Debris-flow hazards and related phenomena,Praxis,Chichester,UK.runout prediction methods[A].In:Jakob M and Hungr O(Eds.).Debris-flow hazards and related phenomena[C].2005,305～324.
[9]Hungr O,Morgan GC,Kellerhals R.Quantitative analysis of debris torrent hazard for design of remedial measures.Canadian Geotech-nical Journal,1984,21(4):663～677.
[10]Ikeya H.Debris flow and its countermeasures,Japan.Bulletin of the International Association of Engineering Geology,1989,40:15～33.
[11]Rickenmann D.Empirical relationships for debris flows.Natural Hazards,1999,19:47～77.
[12]Adam B,Prochaska Paul M,Santi Jerry D,Higgins Susan H Can-non.Debris-flow runout predictions based on the average channel slope(ACS)[J].Engineering Geology,2008,98:29～40.
[13]Berti M,Simoni A.Prediction of debris flow inundation areas using empirical mobility relationships.Geomorphology,2007,90:144～161.
[14]Hurlimann M,Rickenmann D,Medina V,Bateman A.Evaluation of approaches to calculate debris-flow parameters for hazad assess-ment.Engineering Geology,2008,102:152～163.
[15]刘希林,唐川,朱静,等.泥石流危险范围的流域背景预测法[J].自然灾害学报,1992,1(3):56～67.Liu Xilin,Tang Chuan,Zhu Jing,et al.The drainage background forecast on the risk range of debris flow.Journal of Natural Disas-ters,1992,1(3):56～67.
[16]刘希林,唐川.泥石流危险性评价[M].北京:科学出版社.1995.Liu Xilin,Tang Chuan.Hazard Assessment of Debris Flow.Beijing:Science Press,1995.
[17]Hürlimann M,Copons R,Altimir J.2006.Detailed debris flow hazard assessment in Andorra,A multidisciplinary approach.Geo-morphology,78:359～372.
[18]Lin C W,Liu SH,Lee SY,Liu CC.2006.Impacts on the Chi-Chi earthquake on subsequent rain-induced landslides in central Tai-wan.Engineering Geology,86:87～101.
[19]Liu J G,Tang C,Kusky Timothy.Emergency geohazard mapping for Wenchuan earthquake disaster in China[A].Proceedings of the ALOS PI2008Symposium[C].European Space Agency,Netherlands,2008,664～669.
[20]Lorente A,Beguerua S,Garcia-Ruiz JM.Debris Flow Characteristics and relationships in the central Spanish Pyrenees.Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,2003,3:683～692.
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