中国农村房屋震灾脆弱性评估及其成因分析
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摘要
中国农村地区的房屋普遍处于地震未设防的状态,在地震中房屋结构破坏是造成人员伤亡和财产损失的主要因素。作为重要的灾害承险体之一,从房屋结构方面进行区域震灾损失的预测对把握各个地区的灾害脆弱性,科学地制定区域防灾战略和规划具有极其重要的意义。①基于中国县级尺度房屋结构数据库的前期基础工作,以2000年中国地震区划为基本依据,参考震灾条件下的不同结构房屋破坏比和易损性曲线的研究成果,对中国县级空间尺度的农村房屋震灾脆弱性进行了整体评估。②根据房屋破坏损失的预测结果,将中国农村地区划分为低脆弱性、一般脆弱性、较高脆弱性和极高脆弱性地区4类,并对较高、极高脆弱性地区的空间分布规律进行了分析。结果表明,中国约18.6%的县处于脆弱性较高和极高的地区,主要集聚在南疆,北疆的乌苏、精河、伊宁等地区,陕西、甘肃、宁夏地区,山东中南部、安徽、江苏等地区,西藏南部边境地区,云南以及青藏高原板块边缘纵贯青川滇的都兰—玛多—道孚—泸定—冕宁—昆明—建水沿线地区。③根据各个地区震灾脆弱性的成因和类型,以及较高、很高脆弱性地区的区域发展水平特征,提出了区域防灾策略的建议。
In China,more than 80% of the total loss of seismic disasters happened in ruralareas.In particular,damages of rural housing have been the main cause of casualties andproperty losses.This study evaluated the seismic vulnerability of counties in terms of thestructure of rural houses,based on the share of different building structures including wood,brick,mix,reinforced concrete,the earthquake intensity zoning of China,and probabilities ofbuilding damage by structures.With a comprehensive damage index made up of damageamount and damage ratio,all the counties are classified into four vulnerability levels:low,medium,high,and extremely high.Then the influencing factors of vulnerabilities and theirspatial differentiations are explored,including those of building structure,earthquake intensityand population density.Accordingly,suggestions are made for anti-disaster strategies indifferent areas.
In China,more than 80% of the total loss of seismic disasters happened in ruralareas.In particular,damages of rural housing have been the main cause of casualties andproperty losses.This study evaluated the seismic vulnerability of counties in terms of thestructure of rural houses,based on the share of different building structures including wood,brick,mix,reinforced concrete,the earthquake intensity zoning of China,and probabilities ofbuilding damage by structures.With a comprehensive damage index made up of damageamount and damage ratio,all the counties are classified into four vulnerability levels:low,medium,high,and extremely high.Then the influencing factors of vulnerabilities and theirspatial differentiations are explored,including those of building structure,earthquake intensityand population density.Accordingly,suggestions are made for anti-disaster strategies indifferent areas.
引文
[1]Ye Yaoxian.Earthquake resistance for rural construction.Architectural Technology&Design,2008,(7):84-93.[叶耀先.农村建设抗震.建筑技术与设计,2008,(7):84-93.]
[2]Wang Ying,Shi Peijun,Wang Jing'ai.Characteristics of seismic disaster in rural area and relative disaster reduction countermeasures in China.Journal of Natural Disasters,2005,14(1):83-89.[王瑛,史培军,王静爱.中国农村地震灾害特点及减灾对策.自然灾害学报,2005,14(1):83-89.]
[3]UN/ISDR.Living with Risk:A Global Review of Disaster Reduction Initiatives.United Nations,2004.
[4]Ge Quansheng,Zou Ming,Zheng Jingyun et al.Integrated Assessment of Natural Disaster Risks in China.Beijing:Science Press,2008.[葛全胜,邹铭,郑景云等.中国自然灾害风险综合评估初步研究.北京:科学出版社,2008.]
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[6]Okada S,Takai N.Classifications of structural types and damage patterns of buildings for earthquake field investigation//Proceedings of the Twelfth World Conference on Earthquake Engineering,Auckland,New Zealand,2000,January30-February4,Paper No.0705.
[7]Schweier C,Markus M,Steinle E.Simulation of earthquake caused building damages for the development of fast reconnaissance techniques.Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,2004,(4):1-9.
[8]Yin Zhiqian.A dynamic model for predicting earthquake disaster losses.Journal of Natural Disasters,1994,3(2):72-80.[尹之潜.地震灾害损失预测的动态分析模型.自然灾害学报,1994,3(2):72-80.]
[9]Yin Zhiqian.Prediction Method of Earthquake Disaster and Loss.Beijing:Seismological Press,1995.[尹之潜.地震灾害及损失预测方法.北京:地震出版社,1995.]
[10]Wang Ying.The vulnerability of earthquake disaster system and the disaster reduction policy in China country[D].Beijing:Beijing Normal University,2004.[王瑛.中国农村地震灾害系统脆弱性分析及减灾对策[D].北京:北京师范大学,2004.]
[11]Yin Lifeng,Li Meng,Song Lijun.Application of Beiyes model in earthquake damage prediction of buildings.Plateau Earthquake Research,2001,13(4):34-40.[尹力峰,李锰,宋立军.贝叶斯模型在房屋震害预测中的应用,高原地震,2001,13(4):34-40.]
[12]Wang Ying,Shi Peijun,Wang Jing'ai et al.Impact of earthquake disaster on rural residents:A case study on Dayao County of Yunnan Province.Journal of Natural Disasters,2005,14(6):110-115.[王瑛,史培军,王静爱等.地震灾害对中国农村居民的影响研究:以云南省大姚县为例.自然灾害学报,2005,14(6):110-115.]
[13]Gao Xiaolu,Jin Fengjun,Ji Jue.Establishment of a county-level housing structure database in China.Geographical Research,2011,30(12):2127-2138.[高晓路,金凤君,季珏.基于尺度收缩方法的中国县级尺度房屋结构数据推算.地理研究,2011,30(12):2127-2138.]
[14]General Administration of Quality Supervision,Inspection and Quarantine of the People's Republic of China,Standardization Administration of the People's Republic of China.Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zonation Map of China(GB18306-2001).[中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局,中国国家标准化管理委员会.中国地震动参数区划图(GB18306-2001).]
[15]Gao Xu,Li Yonglin,Qu Shuqing.Basic characteristics of seismic activities in China.City and Disaster Reduction,1998,(1):6-9.[高旭,李永林,渠淑卿.我国地震活动的基本特征.城市与减灾,1998,(1):6-9.]
[16]Gao Qinghua,Zhang Yecheng.Analysis of Natural Disaster Risks and Regional Security in China.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2005.[高庆华,张业成.中国自然灾害风险与区域安全性分析.北京:气象出版社,2005.]
[17]Yin Zhiqian,Yang Shuwen.Earthquake Losses Analysis and Fortification Criteria.Beijing:Seismological Press,2004.[尹之潜,杨淑文.地震损失分析与设防标准.北京:地震出版社,2004.]
[18]Guo Zixiong,Liu Yang,Yang Yong.State-of-the-art of seismic damage index of structure.Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2004,24(5):56-61.[郭子雄,刘阳,杨勇.结构震害指数研究评述.地震工程与工程振动,2004,24(5):56-61.]
[19]Gan Pengxia.Research on the vulnerability and damage index of seismic building[D].Harbin:Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration,2009.[甘朋霞.抗震设防建筑的易损性及震害指数研究.哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所,2009.]
[20]Tao Zhengru,Tao Xiaxin.Ground motion parameter based building vulnerability evaluation.Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2004,24(2):86-94.[陶正如,陶夏新.基于地震动参数的建筑物震害预测.地震工程与工程振动,2004,24(2):86-94.]
[21]Liu Yi,Wu Shaohong,Xu Zhongchun et al.Methodology for assessment and classification of natural disaster risk:A case study on seismic disaster in Shanxi Province.Geographical Research,2011,30(2):195-208.[刘毅,吴绍洪,徐中春等.自然灾害风险评估与分级方法论探研:以山西省地震灾害风险为例.地理研究,2011,30(2):195-208.]
[22]General Administration of Quality Supervision,Inspection and Quarantine of the People's Republic of China,Standardization Administration of the People's Republic of China.The Chinese Seismic Intensity Scale(GB/T17742-2008).Beijing:Standards Press of China,2008.[中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局,中国国家标准化管理委员会.中国地震烈度表(GB/T17742-2008).北京:中国标准出版社,2008.]
[2]Wang Ying,Shi Peijun,Wang Jing'ai.Characteristics of seismic disaster in rural area and relative disaster reduction countermeasures in China.Journal of Natural Disasters,2005,14(1):83-89.[王瑛,史培军,王静爱.中国农村地震灾害特点及减灾对策.自然灾害学报,2005,14(1):83-89.]
[3]UN/ISDR.Living with Risk:A Global Review of Disaster Reduction Initiatives.United Nations,2004.
[4]Ge Quansheng,Zou Ming,Zheng Jingyun et al.Integrated Assessment of Natural Disaster Risks in China.Beijing:Science Press,2008.[葛全胜,邹铭,郑景云等.中国自然灾害风险综合评估初步研究.北京:科学出版社,2008.]
[5]Steinbrugge K V.Studies of seismology and earthquake damage statistics.Washington D C:U.S.Department of Housing and Urban Department,1969:1-100.
[6]Okada S,Takai N.Classifications of structural types and damage patterns of buildings for earthquake field investigation//Proceedings of the Twelfth World Conference on Earthquake Engineering,Auckland,New Zealand,2000,January30-February4,Paper No.0705.
[7]Schweier C,Markus M,Steinle E.Simulation of earthquake caused building damages for the development of fast reconnaissance techniques.Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences,2004,(4):1-9.
[8]Yin Zhiqian.A dynamic model for predicting earthquake disaster losses.Journal of Natural Disasters,1994,3(2):72-80.[尹之潜.地震灾害损失预测的动态分析模型.自然灾害学报,1994,3(2):72-80.]
[9]Yin Zhiqian.Prediction Method of Earthquake Disaster and Loss.Beijing:Seismological Press,1995.[尹之潜.地震灾害及损失预测方法.北京:地震出版社,1995.]
[10]Wang Ying.The vulnerability of earthquake disaster system and the disaster reduction policy in China country[D].Beijing:Beijing Normal University,2004.[王瑛.中国农村地震灾害系统脆弱性分析及减灾对策[D].北京:北京师范大学,2004.]
[11]Yin Lifeng,Li Meng,Song Lijun.Application of Beiyes model in earthquake damage prediction of buildings.Plateau Earthquake Research,2001,13(4):34-40.[尹力峰,李锰,宋立军.贝叶斯模型在房屋震害预测中的应用,高原地震,2001,13(4):34-40.]
[12]Wang Ying,Shi Peijun,Wang Jing'ai et al.Impact of earthquake disaster on rural residents:A case study on Dayao County of Yunnan Province.Journal of Natural Disasters,2005,14(6):110-115.[王瑛,史培军,王静爱等.地震灾害对中国农村居民的影响研究:以云南省大姚县为例.自然灾害学报,2005,14(6):110-115.]
[13]Gao Xiaolu,Jin Fengjun,Ji Jue.Establishment of a county-level housing structure database in China.Geographical Research,2011,30(12):2127-2138.[高晓路,金凤君,季珏.基于尺度收缩方法的中国县级尺度房屋结构数据推算.地理研究,2011,30(12):2127-2138.]
[14]General Administration of Quality Supervision,Inspection and Quarantine of the People's Republic of China,Standardization Administration of the People's Republic of China.Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zonation Map of China(GB18306-2001).[中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局,中国国家标准化管理委员会.中国地震动参数区划图(GB18306-2001).]
[15]Gao Xu,Li Yonglin,Qu Shuqing.Basic characteristics of seismic activities in China.City and Disaster Reduction,1998,(1):6-9.[高旭,李永林,渠淑卿.我国地震活动的基本特征.城市与减灾,1998,(1):6-9.]
[16]Gao Qinghua,Zhang Yecheng.Analysis of Natural Disaster Risks and Regional Security in China.Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2005.[高庆华,张业成.中国自然灾害风险与区域安全性分析.北京:气象出版社,2005.]
[17]Yin Zhiqian,Yang Shuwen.Earthquake Losses Analysis and Fortification Criteria.Beijing:Seismological Press,2004.[尹之潜,杨淑文.地震损失分析与设防标准.北京:地震出版社,2004.]
[18]Guo Zixiong,Liu Yang,Yang Yong.State-of-the-art of seismic damage index of structure.Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2004,24(5):56-61.[郭子雄,刘阳,杨勇.结构震害指数研究评述.地震工程与工程振动,2004,24(5):56-61.]
[19]Gan Pengxia.Research on the vulnerability and damage index of seismic building[D].Harbin:Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration,2009.[甘朋霞.抗震设防建筑的易损性及震害指数研究.哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所,2009.]
[20]Tao Zhengru,Tao Xiaxin.Ground motion parameter based building vulnerability evaluation.Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2004,24(2):86-94.[陶正如,陶夏新.基于地震动参数的建筑物震害预测.地震工程与工程振动,2004,24(2):86-94.]
[21]Liu Yi,Wu Shaohong,Xu Zhongchun et al.Methodology for assessment and classification of natural disaster risk:A case study on seismic disaster in Shanxi Province.Geographical Research,2011,30(2):195-208.[刘毅,吴绍洪,徐中春等.自然灾害风险评估与分级方法论探研:以山西省地震灾害风险为例.地理研究,2011,30(2):195-208.]
[22]General Administration of Quality Supervision,Inspection and Quarantine of the People's Republic of China,Standardization Administration of the People's Republic of China.The Chinese Seismic Intensity Scale(GB/T17742-2008).Beijing:Standards Press of China,2008.[中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局,中国国家标准化管理委员会.中国地震烈度表(GB/T17742-2008).北京:中国标准出版社,2008.]
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