汶川余震序列的加卸载响应比分析
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摘要
该文首先将汶川余震序列分成西南、东北两段,用加卸载响应比方法分别进行分析,结果表明震后两段的响应比值都比较低,明显小于1,这可判断汶川地震属于主余震型地震;且地震序列中的强余震(M≥5.0)发生前加卸载响应比值出现明显异常,大都是加卸载响应比出现峰值,之后发生强余震。考虑到主震后余震的时空丛集现象,结合ETAS模型对原有的加卸载响应比计算式进行改造,并分析了主震之后15天的改造后响应比值,发现改造后的响应比在一定程度上消除了丛集的影响,并展示了对紧随主震发生的强余震的预测能力。
On 12 May 2008,Wenchuan earthquake with magnitude MS8.0 occurred in Sichuan,China.Because of the different focal mechanisms,we divide the distribution region of Wenchuan aftershocks into two parts,namely the southwest part and the northeast part,which are analysed using the Load/Unload Response Ratio(LURR) method separately.The results showed that LURR-values in both the two parts are obviously smaller than 1.0 after the main shock,so the Wenchuan earthquake can be determined to be the usual mainshock-aftershock type.On the other hand,before the occurrence of strong aftershocks(M≥5.0) in the sequence,the LURR-values show anomalies of high values and most strong aftershocks occurred after LURR experienced a peak value.Considering the temporal clustering and spatial concentration of aftershock sequences after the occurrence of most major earthquakes,an improved version of LURR combining the epidemic-type aftershock sequence(ETAS) model is applied to the analyses of the sequence in the first 15 days after the main shock.The results showed that the new LURR can eliminate the fluctuations caused by aftershock clusters to some extent and is better for forecasting strong aftershocks.
On 12 May 2008,Wenchuan earthquake with magnitude MS8.0 occurred in Sichuan,China.Because of the different focal mechanisms,we divide the distribution region of Wenchuan aftershocks into two parts,namely the southwest part and the northeast part,which are analysed using the Load/Unload Response Ratio(LURR) method separately.The results showed that LURR-values in both the two parts are obviously smaller than 1.0 after the main shock,so the Wenchuan earthquake can be determined to be the usual mainshock-aftershock type.On the other hand,before the occurrence of strong aftershocks(M≥5.0) in the sequence,the LURR-values show anomalies of high values and most strong aftershocks occurred after LURR experienced a peak value.Considering the temporal clustering and spatial concentration of aftershock sequences after the occurrence of most major earthquakes,an improved version of LURR combining the epidemic-type aftershock sequence(ETAS) model is applied to the analyses of the sequence in the first 15 days after the main shock.The results showed that the new LURR can eliminate the fluctuations caused by aftershock clusters to some extent and is better for forecasting strong aftershocks.
引文
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[12]尹祥础,张晖辉,张浪平,等.从加卸载响应比的变化预测中国大陆地震趋势[A].中国地震局地震预测研究所.中国地震趋势预测研究(2006年度)[C].北京:地震出版社,2005.92-96.
[13]尹祥础,张浪平,张永仙,等.从加卸载响应比的时空演化预测中国大陆未来1~3年地震趋势的初步研究[A].中国地震局地震预测研究所.中国地震趋势预测研究(2007年度)[C].北京:地震出版社,2006,90-95.
[14]Wang Haitao,Peng Keyin,Zhang Yongxian,et al.Characters of Variation of LURR During theEarthquake Sequence of Xinjiang[J].Chinese Sciences Bulletin,1998,43:1 752-1 755.
[15]Harris R A.Introduction to Special Section:Stress Triggers,Stress Shadows,and Implication forSeismic Hazard[J].J Goephys Res,1998,103:24 347-24 358.
[16]Resernberg P A,Simpson R W.Response of Regional Seismicity to the Static Stress Change Pro-duced by the Loma Preita Earthquake[J].Science,1992,255:1 687-1 690.
[17]张晖辉.非均匀脆性介质的灾变预测-加卸载响应比理论的研究与实践[D].北京:中国科学院研究生院博士学位论文,2006.
[18]Zhang Huihui,Yin Xiangchu,Liang Naigang,et al.Acoustic Emission Experiments of Rock Failureunder Load Simulating the Hypocenter Condition[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,2006,163(11-12):2 389-2 406.
[19]Zhang Langping,Zhuang Jiancang,Yin Xiangchu,et al.Forecasting of strong aftershock by using acombination of the LURR method and the ETAS model[J].Geophysics Journal of International,2008(Submitted):115-128.
①赵翠萍等,利用全球台网体波波形数据反演汶川地震的破裂过程,2008年。
[2]尹祥础.地震预测新途径的探索[J].中国地震,1987,3(1):1-7.
[3]尹祥础,尹灿.非线性系统的失稳前兆与地震预测[J].中国科学,1991,(5):512-518.
[4]姜彤,马莎,许兵,等.边坡在地震作用下的加卸载响应规律研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2004,23(22):3 803-3 807.
[5]贺可强,周敦云,王思敬.降雨型堆积层滑坡的加卸载响应比特征及其预测作用与意义[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2004,23(16):2 665-2 670.
[6]Zhang W J,Chen Y M,Zhan L T.Loading/Unloading response ratio(LURR)theory applied inpredicting deep-seated landslides triggering[J].Engineering Geology,2006,82:234-240.
[7]Yin Xiangchu,Chen Xuezhong,Song Zhiping.The load/unload response ratio(LURR)theory andits application to earthquake prediction[J].Journal of Earthquake Prediction Research,1994,3(3):325-333.
[8]Yin Xiangchu,Chen Xuezhong,Song Zhiping,et al.A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction-The Load/Unload Response Ratio(LURR)Theory[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,1995,145(3/4):701-715.
[9]Yin Xiangchu,Chen Xuezhong,Wang Yucang,et al.Development of a new approach to earthquakeprediction:load/unload response ratio(LURR)theory[J].Pure Appl Geophys,2000,157(11-12):2 365-2 383.
[10]尹祥础,张晖辉,彭克银,等.加卸载响应比理论的新进展及其对中国大陆未来地震趋势的预测[A].中国地震局分析预报中心.中国地震趋势研究(2004年度)[C].北京:地震出版社,2003.282-285.
[11]尹祥础,张晖辉,张浪平,等.多时空尺度加卸载响应比扫描预测2005年中国大陆地震趋势[A].中国地震局分析预报中心.中国地震趋势研究(2005年度)[C].北京:地震出版社,2004.285-292.
[12]尹祥础,张晖辉,张浪平,等.从加卸载响应比的变化预测中国大陆地震趋势[A].中国地震局地震预测研究所.中国地震趋势预测研究(2006年度)[C].北京:地震出版社,2005.92-96.
[13]尹祥础,张浪平,张永仙,等.从加卸载响应比的时空演化预测中国大陆未来1~3年地震趋势的初步研究[A].中国地震局地震预测研究所.中国地震趋势预测研究(2007年度)[C].北京:地震出版社,2006,90-95.
[14]Wang Haitao,Peng Keyin,Zhang Yongxian,et al.Characters of Variation of LURR During theEarthquake Sequence of Xinjiang[J].Chinese Sciences Bulletin,1998,43:1 752-1 755.
[15]Harris R A.Introduction to Special Section:Stress Triggers,Stress Shadows,and Implication forSeismic Hazard[J].J Goephys Res,1998,103:24 347-24 358.
[16]Resernberg P A,Simpson R W.Response of Regional Seismicity to the Static Stress Change Pro-duced by the Loma Preita Earthquake[J].Science,1992,255:1 687-1 690.
[17]张晖辉.非均匀脆性介质的灾变预测-加卸载响应比理论的研究与实践[D].北京:中国科学院研究生院博士学位论文,2006.
[18]Zhang Huihui,Yin Xiangchu,Liang Naigang,et al.Acoustic Emission Experiments of Rock Failureunder Load Simulating the Hypocenter Condition[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,2006,163(11-12):2 389-2 406.
[19]Zhang Langping,Zhuang Jiancang,Yin Xiangchu,et al.Forecasting of strong aftershock by using acombination of the LURR method and the ETAS model[J].Geophysics Journal of International,2008(Submitted):115-128.
①赵翠萍等,利用全球台网体波波形数据反演汶川地震的破裂过程,2008年。
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