新疆中强震预报的探讨
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摘要
利用物理意义清晰、彼此间及与地震目录关联度小的预测方法,进行了在新疆预测中强地震及其发震地点和发震条件的探讨。结果表明:3级地震频次维持3个月以上低值和5级地震维持6个月平静反映了6级以上地震的中短期发震背景,地震对应率大于83%;将地震活跃期6级地震发生后3个月内研究区发生的4级地震作为响应地震,其250 km范围内一年内发生中强震的为62%,两年内发生中强震的为79%;以响应区b值出现低值—回返作为预备震源可能发震的条件,其后一年内发震的为75%,2年内发震的为92%。
With prediction methods which have clear physical-meaning,are less related each other and with catalogue,the possibility location and condition of moderate-strong earthquakes in Xinjiang region are discussed.The result shows that the low frequency of M3 earthquake lasting longer than 3 months,M5 earthquake quietness lasting 6 months reflect mid-short term character of occurring M≥6 earthquakes,and corresponding rate is greater than 83%.Taking M4 earthquakes occurring within 3 months after M6 earthquake during the earthquake active phase as the response earthquake,the rate of occuring a mid-strong earthquake is 62% in the range of 250 km within one year,and 79% within 2 years.Taking low value-returning of b value in response region as possible occurring condition of prepared focal region,occurring rate is 75% within one year,and 92% within 2 years.
With prediction methods which have clear physical-meaning,are less related each other and with catalogue,the possibility location and condition of moderate-strong earthquakes in Xinjiang region are discussed.The result shows that the low frequency of M3 earthquake lasting longer than 3 months,M5 earthquake quietness lasting 6 months reflect mid-short term character of occurring M≥6 earthquakes,and corresponding rate is greater than 83%.Taking M4 earthquakes occurring within 3 months after M6 earthquake during the earthquake active phase as the response earthquake,the rate of occuring a mid-strong earthquake is 62% in the range of 250 km within one year,and 79% within 2 years.Taking low value-returning of b value in response region as possible occurring condition of prepared focal region,occurring rate is 75% within one year,and 92% within 2 years.
引文
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[2]王筱荣.地震平静特征与新疆的中强地震[J].西北地震学报,2003,23(3):246-252.
[3]马宗晋.华北地壳的多(应力集中)点场与地震[J].地震地质,1980,2(1):39-48.
[4]白超英,王筱荣.新疆成组中强地震活动前后地震活动图像的时空演化特征[J].西北地震学报,2001,21(2):149-159.
[5]吴小平.b值物理机制的再探讨[J].西北地震学报,1990,12(3):1-12.
[6]秦保燕.大震前复杂震源系统的非线性阶段和大震预报(一)[J].西北地震学报,1986,6(4):1-8.
[7]李海华,张勇利,张文孝,等.地震自相似现象初探[J].内陆地震,1990,4(4):292-300.
[8]范俊喜,马瑾,刁桂苓,等.地块活动与成组地震关系的初步探讨[J].地震学报,2001,23(5):514-522.
[9]张国民,马宏生,王辉,等.中国大陆活动地块边界带与强震活动[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(3):602-610.
[10]王琪,张培震,朱之俊,等.中国大陆现今地壳运动和构造变形[J].中国科学(D辑),2001,31(7):529-536.
[11]宋俊高,王炜,陆锦华.前兆性地震平静在中期预报中的定量研究[J].西北地震学报,1997,19(3):38-43.
[12]吴富春,徐俊奇,张宪,等.中国地震预报中地震学异常的统计研究[J].西北地震学报,2000,22(2):105-109.
[13]梅世蓉,冯德益,张国民,等.中国地震预报概论[M].北京:地震出版社,1993:272-277.
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