区域防震减灾能力评估方法研究
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摘要
本文通过对影响减灾能力的因素分析,建立了宏观地震减灾能力层次分析模型。其中目标层为生命损失;准则层为工程抗震能力、社会经济减灾能力、应急救援与恢复能力;指标层为抗震设防能力、防御次生灾害能力、居住地类型、人均GDP、三产比例、地震预报、工程预警、救援医疗、物资储备。用层次分析法得到在遭遇第一水准烈度、第二水准烈度和第三水准烈度时各项指标减灾能力的权重值。结果表明,三种情况下抗震设防能力的权重都是最大的,因此加强建筑物的抗震能力,是减少人员伤亡的最佳解决方案。
Through the analysis of factors responsible for earthquake disaster,a macro earthquake disaster reduction ability model was build up.The target layer includes life loss.The rule layer includes the earthquake resist ability by engineering,the ability of disaster reduction by society and economic,emergency rescue and the ability of reconstruction.The sub-target layer includes the ability of earthquake resist level,the ability of resist second-disaster,residential area type,GDP per person,section of GDP,earthquake predict,project alarm,rescue and medical treatmeot,material storage.Using the method of Analytic Hierarchy Process,the weight of every targets when suffer the first level,second level or third level earthquake intensity was obtained.The result showed that the ability of earthquake resist has the biggest weight under each case.So improving the earthquake resist level of buildings is the best way to reduce the casualty.
Through the analysis of factors responsible for earthquake disaster,a macro earthquake disaster reduction ability model was build up.The target layer includes life loss.The rule layer includes the earthquake resist ability by engineering,the ability of disaster reduction by society and economic,emergency rescue and the ability of reconstruction.The sub-target layer includes the ability of earthquake resist level,the ability of resist second-disaster,residential area type,GDP per person,section of GDP,earthquake predict,project alarm,rescue and medical treatmeot,material storage.Using the method of Analytic Hierarchy Process,the weight of every targets when suffer the first level,second level or third level earthquake intensity was obtained.The result showed that the ability of earthquake resist has the biggest weight under each case.So improving the earthquake resist level of buildings is the best way to reduce the casualty.
引文
[1]谢礼立.城市防震减灾能力的定义及评估方法[J].西北地震学报,2005,27(4):296-304.
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[3]李智,王晓青,等.地震震害微观与宏观方法快速盲估综述[J].地震,2010,30(2):134-142.
[4]World Bank.World Development Report1994:Infrastructurefor Development[M].Oxford University Press,1995,254.
[5]王雷,王光栋,叶仁荪,等.对我国地区发达程度的进一步划分[J].统计与决策,2006,(2):51-53.
[6]朱凤鸣,吴戈,等.一九七五年海城地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1982.
①国家统计局,中国统计年鉴-2004,http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/yb2004-c/indexch.htm.
②河北地震信息网,一曲震惊世界的凯歌(摘自《中外典型震例》),http://www.eq-he.ac.cn/cms/html/dizhenshijian/20071120/145.html.
[2]李智,王晓青,王超.集集地震人员死亡率研究[J].华北地震,2010,28(3):1-5.
[3]李智,王晓青,等.地震震害微观与宏观方法快速盲估综述[J].地震,2010,30(2):134-142.
[4]World Bank.World Development Report1994:Infrastructurefor Development[M].Oxford University Press,1995,254.
[5]王雷,王光栋,叶仁荪,等.对我国地区发达程度的进一步划分[J].统计与决策,2006,(2):51-53.
[6]朱凤鸣,吴戈,等.一九七五年海城地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1982.
①国家统计局,中国统计年鉴-2004,http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/yb2004-c/indexch.htm.
②河北地震信息网,一曲震惊世界的凯歌(摘自《中外典型震例》),http://www.eq-he.ac.cn/cms/html/dizhenshijian/20071120/145.html.
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