基于CF法的震后泥石流频发区灾害主控因子研究
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摘要
以汶川地震极震区都江堰深溪沟流域为研究区,在震后孕灾环境分析的基础上,得出该地区泥石流频发的主控因子为丰富的物源条件和易于灾害发生的地形地貌条件,并采用确定性系数CF法,定量分析了复杂地形地貌条件对泥石流灾害的影响程度,确定了该流域最有利于泥石流灾害发生的高程、坡度和坡向范围;并将研究结果和震后丰富的物源条件进行叠加分析,确定了主控因子共同作用下深溪沟流域泥石流灾害最危险的分布区域。研究结果为震后深溪沟流域泥石流灾害频发的成因分析及对震区的泥石流危险性评价和区划、防灾减灾提供依据。
Taking Dujiangyan Shenxi gully as the study area,based on the analysis of post-earthquake debris flow hazard inducing environment,the hazard main-control factors including rich material source and susceptible geomorphology condition were determined,and the impacts of the geomorphology condition including elevation,slop and aspect on debris flow were analyzed quantitatively using certainty coefficient method.Overlaid the study results with material source rich areas,the distribution of the most dangerous areas in Shenxi gully basin were delimited under the action of hazard main-control factors.The study results can provide a reference for analyzing the cause of frequent occurrence of debris flow hazards after the earthquake,and have important guiding significance for hazard assessment and zoning,disaster prevention and mitigation as well as economic construction and layout after the earthquake.
Taking Dujiangyan Shenxi gully as the study area,based on the analysis of post-earthquake debris flow hazard inducing environment,the hazard main-control factors including rich material source and susceptible geomorphology condition were determined,and the impacts of the geomorphology condition including elevation,slop and aspect on debris flow were analyzed quantitatively using certainty coefficient method.Overlaid the study results with material source rich areas,the distribution of the most dangerous areas in Shenxi gully basin were delimited under the action of hazard main-control factors.The study results can provide a reference for analyzing the cause of frequent occurrence of debris flow hazards after the earthquake,and have important guiding significance for hazard assessment and zoning,disaster prevention and mitigation as well as economic construction and layout after the earthquake.
引文
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[3]Hu Xiewen.Loose material type and its supplementary todebris flow in Jiangjia Ravine basin[J].Journal of ChengduUniversity of Technology,2001,28(S1):166-169.[胡卸文.蒋家沟流域松散物源类型及其与泥石流的转化机理[J].成都理工大学学报,2001,28(增刊1):166-169.]
[4]Gao Yanchao,Zheng Wanmo,Li Minghui,et al.Assessmentof the debris flow origins along the mountainous stream ba-sin:An example from the Zi’er gully in Kangding,Sichuan[J].Sedimentary Geology and Tethyan Geology,2009,29(3):17-21.[高延超,郑万模,李明辉,等.论小流域内泥石流物源的判别———以康定县子耳沟为例[J].沉积与特提斯地质,2009,29(3):17-21.]
[5]Li Yahui,Yang Wunian,Yang Xin,et al.Debris flow sensi-tivity evaluation based on the topography of the basin systeminformation entropy[J].Soil and Water Conservation in Chi-na,2011(1):55-57.[李雅辉,杨武年,杨鑫,等.基于流域系统的地貌信息熵泥石流敏感性评价[J].中国水土保持,2011(1):55-57.]
[6]Lan Hengxing,Wu Faquan,Zhou Chenghu,et al.Analysis onsusceptibility of GIS based landslide triggering factors inYunnan Xiaojiang watershed[J].Chinese Journal of RockMechanics and Engineering,2002,21(10):1500-1506.[兰恒星,伍法权,周成虎,等.基于GIS的云南小江流域滑坡因子敏感性分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2002,21(10):1500-1506.
[7]Chen Xiaoli,Ran Hongliu,Qi Shengwen.Triggering factorssusceptibility of earthquake induced landslide in 1976 Lon-gling Earthquake[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Univer-sitatis Pekinens,2008(2):50-56.[陈晓利,冉洪流,祈生文.1976年龙陵地震诱发滑坡的影响因子敏感性分析[J].北京大学学报:自然科学版,2008(2):50-56.]
[8]Shen Wenwu,Zhang Jingke,Xiang Zhongyang,et al.Statusand preliminary conservation program of earthquake ruins inShenxigou region Dujiangyan City[J].Dunhang Research,2010(6):46-53.[谌文武,张景科,向忠阳,等.都江堰深溪沟地震遗迹现状及初步保护方案[J].敦煌研究,2010(6):46-53.]
[9]Heckerman A.Probabilistic interpretation of MYCIN’s cer-tainty factors[M]//Kanal L N,Lemmer J F.Uncertainty inArtificial Intelligence.New York:Elsevier,1986:298-311.
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