天津地区井水位气压系数变化与地震关系的探讨
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摘要
地下水位气压系数在震前出现异常变化的研究,在地震预测研究中具有积极的作用和现实意义。利用高采样率的数字化资料,采取一阶差分筛选回归分析的方法,对天津地区4口地下水动态观测井的气压系数进行计算分析,并对其与地震的关系进行探讨。研究认为:不同的井孔,由于自身条件及干扰因素的不同,气压系数在震前的异常变化形态及幅度都有所不同;气压系数是随时间和空间而变化的物理量。通过文安5.1级地震震例检验,提出利用气压系数预报地震的可能性,但将之应用到地震监测预报实践中,尚需更多震例检验,并需开展广泛、系统的研究。
The research on the air pressure coefficient varieties of the groundwater lever before the earthquake has a positive role and practical significance in earthquakes prediction. In this paper, based on the digital observational data of high sampling rate, the pressure coefficients of four observation wells in Tianjin area are calculated and analyzed with first order difference and regression, and their relations with earthquakes are also discussed. We find that the abnormity shape and amplitude of air pressure coefficients are different before the earth- quake, because of the different horeholes, their own conditions and interference factors are different; the air pressure coefficient is physical quantity of variation with time and spatial change. According to test on the earthquake example of Wen'an M 5.1 earthquake, authors proposed the possibility to predict earthquakes using the air pressure coefficient of the water well, but the method applied to the earthquake monitoring and predicting, still needs more earthquake examples and more extensive and systematic research.
The research on the air pressure coefficient varieties of the groundwater lever before the earthquake has a positive role and practical significance in earthquakes prediction. In this paper, based on the digital observational data of high sampling rate, the pressure coefficients of four observation wells in Tianjin area are calculated and analyzed with first order difference and regression, and their relations with earthquakes are also discussed. We find that the abnormity shape and amplitude of air pressure coefficients are different before the earth- quake, because of the different horeholes, their own conditions and interference factors are different; the air pressure coefficient is physical quantity of variation with time and spatial change. According to test on the earthquake example of Wen'an M 5.1 earthquake, authors proposed the possibility to predict earthquakes using the air pressure coefficient of the water well, but the method applied to the earthquake monitoring and predicting, still needs more earthquake examples and more extensive and systematic research.
引文
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丁凤和,赵铁锁,尹占军,等.大甸子井水位的气压系数及其震前异常[J].西北地震学报,2007,29(2) :174-182．
耿杰,周斌,张昭栋.深井水位气压效率和相关系数在中强地震前的变化特征[J].西北地震学报,2002,24(3) :257-261．
国家地震局分析预报中心三室.地下流体预报地震论文集[M].北京:地震出版社,1987．
国家地震局科技监测司.水位、水化专辑[M].北京:地震出版社,1990:146-153．
国家地震局科技监测司.地震地下水手册[M].北京:地震出版社,1995:302-305．
国家地震局预测预防司.地下流体地震预报方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1997:43-44．
李春城,张风楼.白城ZK6井水位气压效率异常与地震关系初探[J].地震,1990,(2) :50 54．
田山,汪翠枝,李君英,等.数字前兆地震异常短临特征的初步研究[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2009,30(2) :57-67．
汪成民,李宣瑚,王铁城,等.中国地震地下水动态观测网[M].北京:地震出版社,1990:65-67．
王新,杨旭升,赵小茂,等.周至井气压系数的变化特征及其与地震的关系[J].华北地震科学,2007,25(2) :15-19．
夏菲,万登堡.井潮系数、气压系数与地震关系的探讨[J].地震研究,1992,15(1) :29-35．
鱼金子,谷园珠,殷世林.三口井水位的气压系数变化及其与地震关系初探[J].地震,1990,(3) ,25-32．
张国民,傅征祥,桂燮泰,等.地震预报引论[M].北京:科学出版社,2001:137-139．
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