具有动力学含义的强震动态图像预测方法研究
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摘要
地震空区方法是利用地震活动图像预报地震效果较好的方法,然而单纯通过空区预报地震具有一定的局限性和不确定性。建立具有动力学含义的动态图像预测方法,把空区的形成和演化放在板块运动和构造特征的基础上考虑。通过对华东和华南地区26次5级以上地震的震例分析,给出主震发生与空区、活动断裂位置以及空区与活动断裂位置和走向的关系,并从两个区域的构造差异上给出空区形成和演化规律差异的动力学解释,从而为使用空区预测地震提供物理基础,减少了不确定性。
Seismic gap is a good earthquake prediction method through earthquake activity images,however,it has some limitation and uncertainty to predict earthquake through seismic gap simply.This paper establishes a prediction method of dynamic images with dynamic implication.The method considers the formation and evolution of seismic gap on the basis of plate motion and structural characteristics.Through analyzing 26 earthquake cases above MS5.0 occurring in east China and south China,the paper gives the relationship between main shock and seismic gap﹠active faults location as well as the relationship between seismic gap location and strike of active faults.Meanwhile,the paper provides dynamic explanation on the difference of seismic gap formation and evolution rules from the structure difference of the two regions,so as to provide physical basis for predicting earthquake by using seismic gap,and reduce the uncertainty.
Seismic gap is a good earthquake prediction method through earthquake activity images,however,it has some limitation and uncertainty to predict earthquake through seismic gap simply.This paper establishes a prediction method of dynamic images with dynamic implication.The method considers the formation and evolution of seismic gap on the basis of plate motion and structural characteristics.Through analyzing 26 earthquake cases above MS5.0 occurring in east China and south China,the paper gives the relationship between main shock and seismic gap﹠active faults location as well as the relationship between seismic gap location and strike of active faults.Meanwhile,the paper provides dynamic explanation on the difference of seismic gap formation and evolution rules from the structure difference of the two regions,so as to provide physical basis for predicting earthquake by using seismic gap,and reduce the uncertainty.
引文
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[17]袁金荣,徐菊生,高士钧.利用GPS观测资料反演华北地区现今构造应力场[J].地球学报,1999,20(3):232-238.
[18]王绳祖,张流.塑性流动网络控制下华北地区构造应力场与地震构造[J].地震地质,2002,24(1):69-80.
[19]张国民,马宏生,王辉,等.中国大陆活动地块与强震活动关系[J].中国科学(D辑),2004,34(7):591-599.
[20]马瑞士.华南构造演化新思考兼论“华夏古陆”说中的几个问题[J].高校地质学报,2006,12(4):448-456.
[2]董治平,杨立明,姚军.青藏高原北部地区地震空区初步研究[J].地震研究,2005,28(1):6-11.
[3]毕秋菊.动态空区法在永登5.8级地震回顾性预报中的应用[J].西北地震学报,1996,18(3):30-36.
[4]陈玉华,马文静.库玛断裂带强震活动与地震空区研究[J].地震,2002,22(2):81-87.
[5]黄耘,郑江蓉,赵谊.江苏及邻区孕震过程中地震活动图像演化特征研究[J].地震学刊,1998,(4):19-25.
[6]郭爱香,林怀存,石玉燕.鲁苏皖交界地区地震活动特点浅析[J].华北地震科学,2003,21(1):32-38.
[7]吴延河,林眉,聂庆斌.2005年11月26日江西瑞昌5.7级地震前地震活动分析[J].华北地震科学,2007,25(1):40-43.
[8]陆远忠,沈建文,宋俊高.孕震空区与逼近地震[J].地震学报,1982,4(4):327-336.
[9]陆远忠,王炜,沈建文.孕育空区与逼近地震(续)[J].地震学报,1983,5(2):129-144.
[10]陆远忠,陈章立,王碧泉,等.地震预报的地震学方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1985.
[11]陆远忠,吴云,王炜,等.地震中短期预报的动态图像方法[M].北京:地震出版社,2001.
[12]Mogi K.Two Kinds of seismic gap[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,1979,17(6):1 176-1 186.
[13]Lu Yuanzhong,Shen Jianwen,Wang Wei.Seismic gap in the Mainland of China[C]//[作者不详].ACollection of Papers ofInternational symposium on continental Seismicily and Earthquakc Prediction(ISCSEP).Beijing:Seismological Press,1984.
[14]陈宇卫,陆远忠.地震空区的定量判据[J].地震,1994,(2):11-18.
[15]秦保燕.地震动态空区法与中、强震预报[J].地震研究,1995,18(2):109-115.
[16]朱守彪.地震动态空区法预报中强震的进一步讨论[J].西北地震学报,1997,19(3):101-104.
[17]袁金荣,徐菊生,高士钧.利用GPS观测资料反演华北地区现今构造应力场[J].地球学报,1999,20(3):232-238.
[18]王绳祖,张流.塑性流动网络控制下华北地区构造应力场与地震构造[J].地震地质,2002,24(1):69-80.
[19]张国民,马宏生,王辉,等.中国大陆活动地块与强震活动关系[J].中国科学(D辑),2004,34(7):591-599.
[20]马瑞士.华南构造演化新思考兼论“华夏古陆”说中的几个问题[J].高校地质学报,2006,12(4):448-456.
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