混凝土大坝震害评估模型的研究及对黄河上游大坝的分析
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摘要
利用前人所编的历代(共四代)地震烈度(地震动)区划图,组合叠加后得到一个综合烈度(地震动)。这种叠加是一个集成的专家系统综合认识结果,以此作为坝体可能遭受地震破坏危险的因素。初步研究建立了混凝土大坝震害评估模型,此模型是考虑了坝体的结构类型、建设年代、使用现状、场地条件、抗震设防水平等因素,用逐步线性拟合方法进行回归分析得到的。用此模型对汶川地震破坏的坝体进行了实例分析,分析结果比较符合实际。最后,用这个模型对黄河上游10座重点混凝土大坝做了震害评估分析。
Using the four generations of earthquake intensity zoning of China,integrated intensity values are superimposed.The overlay is an integrated comprehensive understanding of the results of expert system.The integrated intensity valuse may be as a risk of dam subjected to earthquake damage factors.Initial research established model of earthquake damage assessment of concrete dams.The model considers the structure of the type of dam,construction age,use status,site conditions,seismic fortification levels and other factors,and obtaines results by stepwise linear regression analysis method of fitting.Four conerete dams in Wenchuan earthquake are analyzed.The results are analyzed by comparing with the real seismic damage and the reliability of the judgment model is verified by the results.Finally,ten key concrete dams in the upper reaches of the Yellow River are analyzed.
Using the four generations of earthquake intensity zoning of China,integrated intensity values are superimposed.The overlay is an integrated comprehensive understanding of the results of expert system.The integrated intensity valuse may be as a risk of dam subjected to earthquake damage factors.Initial research established model of earthquake damage assessment of concrete dams.The model considers the structure of the type of dam,construction age,use status,site conditions,seismic fortification levels and other factors,and obtaines results by stepwise linear regression analysis method of fitting.Four conerete dams in Wenchuan earthquake are analyzed.The results are analyzed by comparing with the real seismic damage and the reliability of the judgment model is verified by the results.Finally,ten key concrete dams in the upper reaches of the Yellow River are analyzed.
引文
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[15]许晏平,朱传镇.1993年7月12日北海道西南近海地震及震害[J].国际地震动态,1993,(8):24-25.Xu Y P,Zhu Ch Zh.July 12,1993 SouthwestHokkaido earthquake and earthquake damage offshore[J].Recent Developments in World Seismolog,1993,(8):24-25.
[16]刘允清(译).根据密集的调查表调查的地震烈度得出的日本北部札幌市地区的地震区划图[J].世界地震译丛,1996,(6):49-53.
[17]Fumio Yamazaki,罗奇峰,章在墉.1993年1月15日钏路近海地震(M-J7.8)震害简报[J].世界地震工程,1993,(3):55-58.Fumio Yamazaki,Luo Q F,Zhang Z Y.The January15,1993 Kushiro-Oki Earthquake—a quick lookreport[J].World Earthquake Engineering,1993,(3):55-58.
[18]王永才(译).用地理信息系统研究1993年钏路近海地震破坏和地震烈度分布的评估方法[J].世界地震译丛,1996,(6):60-65.
[19]郭锡荣.1993年钏路和北海道西南大地震中大坝震害及特性[J].水利水电快报,1995,(8):15-20.Guo X R.The characteristics of the dam andEarthquake damage in 1993 Southwest HokkaidoKushiro earthquake[J].Express Water Resources&Hydropower in Formation,1995,(8):15-20.
[20]郝宪生.日本兵库县南部地震调查与中国唐山大地震的比较[J].山西地震,1996,(4):44-47.Hao X Sh.On-the-spot investigation of the earthquakein the south of hyogo prefecture,Japan andCompariason with the great Tangshan earthquake[J].Earthquake Research In Shanxi,1996,(4):44-47.
[21]梁明剑,袁道阳,刘百篪,等.兰州马衔山北缘断裂地震潜势评估[J].西北地震学报,2008,30(4):337-343.Liang M J,Yuan D Y,Liu B Ch,et al.Seismic rickestinates for the Maxianshan North-margin Fault[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2008,30(4):337-343.
[2]国家地震局.中国地震烈度区划图(1∶300万)[M].北京:地震出版社,1976.State Seismological Bureau.Chinese Seismic IntensityZoning Map(1∶300 Million)[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,1976.
[3]国家地震局.中国地震烈度区划图(1∶800万)[M].北京:地震出版社,1990.State Seismological Bureau.Chinese Seismic IntensityZoning Map(1∶800 Million)[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,1990.
[4]国家地震局.中国地震烈度区划图(1∶400万)[M].北京:地震出版社,2001.State Seismological Bureau.Chinese Seismic IntensityZoning Map(1∶400 Million)[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,2001.
[5]胡聿贤.中国地震动参数区划图宣贯教材[M].北京:中国标准出版社,2001.Hu Y X.China Zoning Map of Ground MotionPublicizing Materials[M].Beijing:China StandardsPress,2001.
[6]陈厚群.汶川地震后对大坝抗震安全的思考[J].中国工程科学,2009,11(6):44-53.Chen H Q.Consideration on seismic safety of dams inChina after the Wenchuan Earthquake[J].Engineering Sciences,2009,11(6):44-53.
[7]朱伯芳.混凝土坝是土木建筑中抗震能力最强的[R].北京:绿色能源论坛,2008.Zhu B F.Civil construction of concrete dams is thestrongest earthquake[R].Beijing:Green EnergyForum,2008.
[8]晏志勇,王斌,周建平,等.汶川地震灾区大中型水电工程震损调查与分析[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2009.Yan Zh Y,Wang B,Zhou J P,et al.Medium-sizedHydropower Project Investigation and Analysis ofEarthquake Samage in Wenchuan Earthquake[M].Beijing:China Water Power Press,2009.
[9]黄代清.土坝震害预测[J].云南农业大学学报,1992,7(1):1-5.Huang D Q.Prediction of earthquake damage in earthdams[J].Journal of Yunnan Agricultural University,1992,7(1):1-5.
[10]景立平,陈国兴,李永强,等.汶川8.0级地震水坝震害调查[J].地震工程与工程振动,2009,(1):14-23.Jing L P,Chen G X,Li Y Q,et al.Investigation onearthquake-induced dam damage during Wenchuanearthquake[J].Journal of Earthquake Engineering andEngineering Vibration,2009,(1):14-23.
[11]宋胜武,蔡德文.汶川大地震紫平铺混凝土面板堆石坝震害现象与变形监测分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2009,28(4):840-849.Song Sh W,Cai D W.Earthquake damage phenomenaand deformation monitoring analysis for concretefaced rockfill dam at zipngpu project during Wenchuanearthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanicsand Engineering,2009,28(4):840-849.
[12]景立平,陈国兴,李永强,等.汶川地震中江油市水坝震害调查与分析[J].世界地震工程,2009,25(2):1-10.Jing L P,Chen G X,Li Y Q,et al.Investigation ofearthquake damage to dams in Jiangyou city duringWenchuan earthquake[J].World Information onEarthquake Engineening,2009,25(2):1-10.
[13]栗林荣一,蔡之瑞.1995年1月17日日本神户地震(兵库县南部地震)调查报告[J].世界地震工程,1995,(2):63-73.Li L R Y,Cai Zh R.The survey report of January17,1995 earthquake in Kobe,Japan(southern HyogoPrefecture Earthquake)[J].World Information onEarthquake Engineering,1995,(2):63-73.
[14]朱伯芳,杨波.混凝土坝耐强烈地震而不垮的机理[J].水利水电技术,2009,(1):1-13.Zhu B F,Yang B.The reason why concrete dams canresist strong earthquakes without serious damage[J].Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,2009,(1):1-13.
[15]许晏平,朱传镇.1993年7月12日北海道西南近海地震及震害[J].国际地震动态,1993,(8):24-25.Xu Y P,Zhu Ch Zh.July 12,1993 SouthwestHokkaido earthquake and earthquake damage offshore[J].Recent Developments in World Seismolog,1993,(8):24-25.
[16]刘允清(译).根据密集的调查表调查的地震烈度得出的日本北部札幌市地区的地震区划图[J].世界地震译丛,1996,(6):49-53.
[17]Fumio Yamazaki,罗奇峰,章在墉.1993年1月15日钏路近海地震(M-J7.8)震害简报[J].世界地震工程,1993,(3):55-58.Fumio Yamazaki,Luo Q F,Zhang Z Y.The January15,1993 Kushiro-Oki Earthquake—a quick lookreport[J].World Earthquake Engineering,1993,(3):55-58.
[18]王永才(译).用地理信息系统研究1993年钏路近海地震破坏和地震烈度分布的评估方法[J].世界地震译丛,1996,(6):60-65.
[19]郭锡荣.1993年钏路和北海道西南大地震中大坝震害及特性[J].水利水电快报,1995,(8):15-20.Guo X R.The characteristics of the dam andEarthquake damage in 1993 Southwest HokkaidoKushiro earthquake[J].Express Water Resources&Hydropower in Formation,1995,(8):15-20.
[20]郝宪生.日本兵库县南部地震调查与中国唐山大地震的比较[J].山西地震,1996,(4):44-47.Hao X Sh.On-the-spot investigation of the earthquakein the south of hyogo prefecture,Japan andCompariason with the great Tangshan earthquake[J].Earthquake Research In Shanxi,1996,(4):44-47.
[21]梁明剑,袁道阳,刘百篪,等.兰州马衔山北缘断裂地震潜势评估[J].西北地震学报,2008,30(4):337-343.Liang M J,Yuan D Y,Liu B Ch,et al.Seismic rickestinates for the Maxianshan North-margin Fault[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,2008,30(4):337-343.
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