中国大陆地区强震的逆向追踪方法研究
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摘要
强震发生前,震源附近的地震活动往往会呈现出一些空间和时间的异常特征,分析和提取这些异常特征的方法较多。本文采用了与常规强震预测方法迥异的地震预测方法地震活动反向追踪法(Reverse Tracing of Precursors,RTP),对中国大陆近30年来的几个MS≥7.5大震(含2008年5月12日汶川MS8.0地震)进行了探索性的回溯研究。结果表明,该方法在中国大陆大震预测方面有一定的适用性,并利用该方法对中国大陆地区的未来强震活动做了一定的预测。
Some temporal-spatial phenomenon of abnormal seismic activity tends to occur around the focus of succeeding strong earthquakes,and there are several methods to analyze and extract these characteristics.A strong earthquake predicting method named RTP(Reverse Tracing of Precursory),which is differed from conventional methods,has been introduced in this paper and used to perform some retrospective study on several MS≥7.5 earthquake(including the May 12,2008,Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake) in the past 30 years from mainland China.To some degree,the result of the study shows that this method is applicable to the strong earthquake prediction in the mainland of China.At last,we make a prediction of strong seismic activities in mainland of China.
Some temporal-spatial phenomenon of abnormal seismic activity tends to occur around the focus of succeeding strong earthquakes,and there are several methods to analyze and extract these characteristics.A strong earthquake predicting method named RTP(Reverse Tracing of Precursory),which is differed from conventional methods,has been introduced in this paper and used to perform some retrospective study on several MS≥7.5 earthquake(including the May 12,2008,Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake) in the past 30 years from mainland China.To some degree,the result of the study shows that this method is applicable to the strong earthquake prediction in the mainland of China.At last,we make a prediction of strong seismic activities in mainland of China.
引文
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[4]Keilis-Borok VI,Shebalin P,Gabrielov A,etc..Reverse tracing of short-termearthquake precur-sors[J].Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors,2004,145:75-85.
[5]Shebalin P,Keilis-Borok VI,Zaliapin I,et al.Advance short-term prediction of the large Tokachi-oki earthquake,September 25,2003,M=8.1 A case history[J].Earth Planets Space,2004,56:715-724.
[6]赵国敏,崔晓峰,刘文兵,等.天津及周边地区地震中短期预测技术研究(技术报告)[M].2008.131-139.
[2]Daley DJ,Vere-Jones D.Scoring probability forecasts for point processes:the entropy score and in-formation gain[J].J Appl Probab,2004,41(A):297-312.
[3]Keilis-Borok VI,Shebalin P N,Zaliapin I V.Premonitory patterns of seismicity months before alarge earthquake:Five case histories in Southern California[J].Proc Natl Ac Sci,2002,99(26):16562-16567.
[4]Keilis-Borok VI,Shebalin P,Gabrielov A,etc..Reverse tracing of short-termearthquake precur-sors[J].Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors,2004,145:75-85.
[5]Shebalin P,Keilis-Borok VI,Zaliapin I,et al.Advance short-term prediction of the large Tokachi-oki earthquake,September 25,2003,M=8.1 A case history[J].Earth Planets Space,2004,56:715-724.
[6]赵国敏,崔晓峰,刘文兵,等.天津及周边地区地震中短期预测技术研究(技术报告)[M].2008.131-139.
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