印度尼西亚M_s≥7.8强震时空对称特征及其趋势判断
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摘要
在灾害的综合研究中,自然灾害风险评价是灾害研究的一个热点领域。对自然灾害进行准确的趋势判断,其理论和现实意义重大。利用可公度信息提取方法和蝴蝶结构图法对1900年以来印度尼西亚Ms≥7.8的强震进行了分析,认为印度尼西亚在2014年强震信号较强,有可能发生较大震级的地震。将地震对称性的空间表象、动力学基础及其物理机理进行有机的结合可以作为地震趋势判断的依据,为后续研究提供一些启示。
In comprehensive research of disasters,risk assessment of natural disaster is a hot spot.Correct tendency judgement on natural disasters is of great theoretical and actual significance.In this study,the methods of commensurable information extraction and butterfly structure diagram were used to analyze the Ms≥7.8 strong earthquakes happened in Indonesia since the year 1990.An organic combination of spatial expression,dynamics foundation and physical mechanism of earthquake can be taken as a judgement basis for earthquake tendency to provide some inspiration for follow-up research.
In comprehensive research of disasters,risk assessment of natural disaster is a hot spot.Correct tendency judgement on natural disasters is of great theoretical and actual significance.In this study,the methods of commensurable information extraction and butterfly structure diagram were used to analyze the Ms≥7.8 strong earthquakes happened in Indonesia since the year 1990.An organic combination of spatial expression,dynamics foundation and physical mechanism of earthquake can be taken as a judgement basis for earthquake tendency to provide some inspiration for follow-up research.
引文
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[14]白晶,延军平,苏坤慧.新疆MS≥7地震时空对称性及未来趋势判断[J].内陆地震.2010,24(4):324-329.BAI Jing,YAN Junping,SU Kunhui.The time-space symmetry and the tendency judgment of future Ms≥7 earthquake in Xin Jiang[J].Inland Earthquake,2010,24(4):324-329.(in Chinese)
[15]延军平,白晶,苏坤慧,等.对称性与部分重大自然灾害趋势研究[J].地理研究,2011,30(7):1159-1167.YAN Junping,BAI Jing,SU Kunhui,et al.Research on symmetry and tendency of several major natural disasters[J].Geographical Research,2011,30(7):1159-1167.(in Chinese)
[16]延军平,闫娜.关于地震预测体系构建的可能性及验证[J].陕西师范大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2008,37(5):19-23.YAN Junping,YAN Na.Probability and verification of constructing an Earthquake Predicting System[J].Journal of Shaanxi Normal University:Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition,2008,37(5):19-23.(in Chinese)
[17]延军平,闫军辉,白晶,等.基于可公度方法的陕西及邻近地区重大自然灾害发生趋势探讨[J].灾害学,2010,25(2):18-20.YAN Junping,YAN Junhui,BAI Jing,et al.Discussion on trends of major natural disasters in shaanxi province and its vicinities based on com-mensurable method[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2010,25(2):18-20.(in Chinese)
[18]张国民,傅征祥,桂燮泰,等.地震预报引论[M].北京:科学出版社,2001.ZHANG Guomin,FU Zhengxiang,GUI Kuitai,et al.A General Introduction of earthquake prediction[M].Beijing:Science Press,2001.(inChinese)
[19]郭增建,秦保燕.地震迁移问题综述[J].国际地震动态,1983,4(1):8-10.GUO Zengjian,QIN Boyan.Review of earthquake migration[J].Recent Developments In World Seismology,1983,4(1):8-10.(in Chinese)
[20]林怀存,吴延河,周翠英,等.印度洋8.7级地震及对未来地震趋势的讨论[J].国际地震动态,2005,26(1):3l-36.LIN Huaicun,WU Yanhe,ZHOU Cuiping,et al.The Dec.26.2004 Indonesia magnitude 8.7 Quake and earthquake tendency analysis[J].Recent Developments In World Seismology,2005,26(1):31-36.(in Chinese)
[21]薛艳.刘杰.宋治平.印尼苏门答腊两次巨大地震序列特征的对比分析[J].国际地震动态,2005,26(10):1-8.XUE Yan,LIU Jie,SONG Zhiping.Comparison study on the two huge Sumatra earthquakes[J].Recent Developments In World Seismology,2005,26(10):1-8.(in Chinese)
[2]高建国.苏门答腊地震海啸影响中国华南天气的初步研究-中国首届灾害链学术研讨会论文集[M].北京:气象出版社.2007.GAO Jianguo.Preliminary Studies on the Sumnami Influencing the Weather in South China-the Collection of the Academic Theses for the FirstDisaster-chain Conference in China[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2007.(in Chinese)
[3]马宗晋,叶洪.2004年12月26日苏门答腊-安达曼大地震构造特征及地震海啸灾害[J].地学前缘,2005,12(1):281-287.MA Zongjin,YE Hong.The Dec.26.2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake:tectonic setting and tsunami disaster[J].Earth Science Frontiers,2005,12(1):281-287.(in Chinese)
[4]郭安红,郭增建.从地气耦合观点讨论洪涝灾害[J].灾害学,2009,24(3):66-67.GUO Anhong,GUO Zengjian.Discussion on flood in the light of earth-atmosphere couping[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2009,24(3):66-67.(in Chinese)
[5]郭增建.滇缅大震与长江巨洪的遥相关[J].自然灾害学报,1998,7(1):72-76.GUO Zengjian.Far correlation between large earthquake in the Yunnan burma area and serious flood along the Yangtze river[J].Journal of NaturalDisasters,1998,7(1):72-76.(in Chinese)
[6]高建国,姚清林,强祖基,等.印尼苏门答腊大地震和珠江大洪水的关系研究[J].气象与减灾研究,2006,29(2):8-17.GAO Jianguo,YAO Qinglin,QIANG Zuji,et al.Study on the relational between the Sumatra earthquake and the Zhujiang flood[J].Meteorologyand Disaster Reduction Research,2006,29(2):8-17.(in Chinese)
[7]高建国,姚清林,强祖基,等.印尼苏门答腊三次大地震与中国珠江洪水关系的研究[J].地球物理学进展,2007,22(4):1393-1399.GAO Jianguo,YAO Qinglin,QIANG Zuji,et al.A study on the relationship between the Sumatra earthquake in Indonesia and the pearl riverfloods in China[J].Progress in Geophysics,2007,22(4):1393-1399.(in Chinese)
[8]闻斌,张勇,张芳苒,等.2008年6月珠江流域较大洪水的雨情、水情分析[J].海洋预测,2009,26(3):93-98.WEN Bin,ZHANG Yong,ZHANG Fangran,et al.The rainfall information and hydrometric of Zhujiang flood in June 2008[J].Marine Forecasts,2009,26(3):93-98.(in Chinese)
[9]徐杰,高祥林,陈国光,等.2004年12月26日印度尼西亚8.7级大地震构造背景的初步分析[J].地震地质,2005,27(2):324-330.XU Jie,GAO XiangLin,CHEN Guoguang,et al.A preliminary analysis of seismotectomics for the M8.7 Indonesia earthquake on December 26,2004[J].Seismology and Geology,2005,27(2):324-330.(in Chinese)
[10]门可佩.重大地震灾害链的时空有序性及其预测研究[J].地球物理学进展,2007,22(2):645-651.MEN Kepei.Time-space order of severe earthquake disaster chain and its prediction[J].Progress in Geophysics,2007,22(2):645-651.(inChinese)
[11]Lüschen a E,Müller C.Structure evolution and tectonic activity of the eastern Sunda forearc,Indonesia,from marine seismic investigations[J].Tectonophysics,2011,26(2):6-21.
[12]翁文波.预测论基础[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1984.WENG Wenbo.Prediction Theory Basis[M].Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,1984.(in Chinese)
[13]翁文波.可公度性.地球物理学报[J].1981,24(2):151-154.WENG Wenbo.Commensurability[J].Acta Geophysica Sinica,1981,24(2):151-154.(in Chinese)
[14]白晶,延军平,苏坤慧.新疆MS≥7地震时空对称性及未来趋势判断[J].内陆地震.2010,24(4):324-329.BAI Jing,YAN Junping,SU Kunhui.The time-space symmetry and the tendency judgment of future Ms≥7 earthquake in Xin Jiang[J].Inland Earthquake,2010,24(4):324-329.(in Chinese)
[15]延军平,白晶,苏坤慧,等.对称性与部分重大自然灾害趋势研究[J].地理研究,2011,30(7):1159-1167.YAN Junping,BAI Jing,SU Kunhui,et al.Research on symmetry and tendency of several major natural disasters[J].Geographical Research,2011,30(7):1159-1167.(in Chinese)
[16]延军平,闫娜.关于地震预测体系构建的可能性及验证[J].陕西师范大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2008,37(5):19-23.YAN Junping,YAN Na.Probability and verification of constructing an Earthquake Predicting System[J].Journal of Shaanxi Normal University:Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition,2008,37(5):19-23.(in Chinese)
[17]延军平,闫军辉,白晶,等.基于可公度方法的陕西及邻近地区重大自然灾害发生趋势探讨[J].灾害学,2010,25(2):18-20.YAN Junping,YAN Junhui,BAI Jing,et al.Discussion on trends of major natural disasters in shaanxi province and its vicinities based on com-mensurable method[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2010,25(2):18-20.(in Chinese)
[18]张国民,傅征祥,桂燮泰,等.地震预报引论[M].北京:科学出版社,2001.ZHANG Guomin,FU Zhengxiang,GUI Kuitai,et al.A General Introduction of earthquake prediction[M].Beijing:Science Press,2001.(inChinese)
[19]郭增建,秦保燕.地震迁移问题综述[J].国际地震动态,1983,4(1):8-10.GUO Zengjian,QIN Boyan.Review of earthquake migration[J].Recent Developments In World Seismology,1983,4(1):8-10.(in Chinese)
[20]林怀存,吴延河,周翠英,等.印度洋8.7级地震及对未来地震趋势的讨论[J].国际地震动态,2005,26(1):3l-36.LIN Huaicun,WU Yanhe,ZHOU Cuiping,et al.The Dec.26.2004 Indonesia magnitude 8.7 Quake and earthquake tendency analysis[J].Recent Developments In World Seismology,2005,26(1):31-36.(in Chinese)
[21]薛艳.刘杰.宋治平.印尼苏门答腊两次巨大地震序列特征的对比分析[J].国际地震动态,2005,26(10):1-8.XUE Yan,LIU Jie,SONG Zhiping.Comparison study on the two huge Sumatra earthquakes[J].Recent Developments In World Seismology,2005,26(10):1-8.(in Chinese)
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