防护工程口部震害风险DEA评估方法研究
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摘要
提出用数据包络分析(DEA)方法对防护工程口部震害风险进行综合评价,以改善相应风险管理水平。通过区分防护工程口部震害风险体系的本质属性和外部诱因,构建多输入、多输出模式的风险单元,建立防护工程口部震害样本相对安全的线性规划模型。应用超效率、理想样本、主客观系数等DEA方法,评价防护工程口部震害风险全要素效率,进行样本相对安全数值计算及主客观比对分析,选出风险状态极差的防护工程口部震害对象。研究表明,防护工程口部震害风险诸单元存在弱有序性现象,用组合DEA方法能够清晰得出其优劣顺序,确定防护工程口部风险防范重点,提高风险管理水平。
In allusion to prevent and control the risk to such earthquake-damaged protective engineering entrance,DEA method was put forward and applied into the comprehensive evaluation about such earthquake-damaged risk entrance parts. Through partitioning the essential characters and external incentives of earthquake-damaged risk system for such typical protective engineering entrance parts,the earthquakedamaged risk units were erected with multi input and output mode for such entrance parts. Such linear programming model was designed on relative risk to such earthquake-damaged entrance risk sample of protective engineering,and whole factor efficiency was carried and evaluated about such earthquake-damaged entrance risk with super efficiency DEA model,the relative safe parameter was calculated,and subjective and objective comparison was carried for above risk sample,which determined the worst risk entrance part.Such study showed,there was weak order correlativity among risk units of earthquake-damaged protective engineering entrance,compounded DEA method could clearly discriminate the preponderant order,ascertained the risk early-warning emphasis of protective engineering entrance,and therefore improved the risk management level.
In allusion to prevent and control the risk to such earthquake-damaged protective engineering entrance,DEA method was put forward and applied into the comprehensive evaluation about such earthquake-damaged risk entrance parts. Through partitioning the essential characters and external incentives of earthquake-damaged risk system for such typical protective engineering entrance parts,the earthquakedamaged risk units were erected with multi input and output mode for such entrance parts. Such linear programming model was designed on relative risk to such earthquake-damaged entrance risk sample of protective engineering,and whole factor efficiency was carried and evaluated about such earthquake-damaged entrance risk with super efficiency DEA model,the relative safe parameter was calculated,and subjective and objective comparison was carried for above risk sample,which determined the worst risk entrance part.Such study showed,there was weak order correlativity among risk units of earthquake-damaged protective engineering entrance,compounded DEA method could clearly discriminate the preponderant order,ascertained the risk early-warning emphasis of protective engineering entrance,and therefore improved the risk management level.
引文
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[9]王静,张明媛,袁永博,等.基于DEA-Tobit模型的城镇地震损失影响因素研究——以汶川地震为例[J].中国安全科学学报,2013,23(10):82-87.WANG Jing,ZHANG Ming-yuan,YUAN Yong-bo,et al.Research on factors affacting urban earthquake loss base on DEATobit model--a case study of Wenchuan earthquake[J].China Safety Science Journal,2013,23(10):82-87.
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[14]WANG Ying-ming,LUO Ying.DEA efficiency assessment using ideal and anti-ideal decision making units[J].Applied Mathematics and Computation,2006,173(2):902-915.
[15]Charnes A,Cooper W,Rhodes E.Measuring the efficiency of decision-making units[J].European Journal of Operational Research,1978,2(6):429-444.
[16]匡海波.基于超效率CCR-DEA的中国港口上市公司成本效率评价研究[J].中国管理科学,2007,15(3):142-147.KUANG Hai-bo.Investigating cost efficiency of China port public companies based on sup-CCR-DEA[J].Chinese Journal of Management Science,2007,15(3):142-147.
[17]HU Jin-lin,WANG Shi-chuan.Total-factor energy efficiency of regions in China[J].Energy Policy,2006(17):3 206-3 211.
[18]刘宁.基于超效率Output-DEA模型的主产区粮食生产能力评价[J].软科学,2011,25(3):79-83.LIU Ning.Evaluation of the grain production capacity of major grain production area based on super-efficiency OutputDEA model[J].Soft Science,2011,25(3):79-83.
[2]何雷,王凤山,陈艳,等.基于改进P-S模型的震后工程抢修抢建风险预警方法研究[J].解放军理工大学学报:自然科学版,2012,13(2):183-188.HE Lei,WANG Feng-shan,CHEN Yan,et al.Risk early-warning method on repairing and constructing operations for earthquake-damaged engineering based on improved P-S model[J].Journal of PLA University of Science and Technology:Natural Science Edition,2012,13(2):183-188.
[3]崔光耀,王明年,于丽,等.汶川地震公路隧道洞口结构震害分析及震害机理研究[J].岩土工程学报,2013,35(6):1 084-1 091.CUI Guang-yao,WANG Ming-nian,YU Li,et al.Seismic damage and mechanism of portal structure of highway tunnels in Wenchuan earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2013,35(6):1 084-1 091.
[4]Havenith H B,Vanini M,Jongmans D.Initiation of earthquake-induced slope failure:Influence of topographical and other site specific amplification effects[J].Journal of Seismology,2003,7(3):397-412.
[5]王峥峥,张哲,高波,等.山岭隧道洞口震害因素分析与抗震风险模糊综合评价[J].中南大学学报:自然科学版,2012,43(3):1 122-1 130.WANG Zheng-zheng,ZHANG Zhe,GAO Bo,et al.Factors of seismic damage and fuzzy synthetic evaluation on seismic risk of mountain tunnel portals[J].Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology,2012,43(3):1 122-1 130.
[6]查京民,王晓颖.基于DEA方法的建筑业安全管理效率评价[J].中国安全科学学报,2013,23(4):14-19.ZHA Jing-min,WANG Xiao-ying.Construction safety management efficiency evaluation based on DEA[J].China Safety Science Journal,2013,23(4):14-19.
[7]刘毅,黄建毅,马丽,等.基于DEA模型的我国自然灾害区域脆弱性评价[J].地理研究,2010,29(7):1 153-1 162.LIU Yi,HUANG Jian-yi,MA Li,et al.The assessment of regional vulnerability to natural disasters in China based on DEA model[J].Journal of Geographical Research,2010,29(7):1 153-1 162.
[8]王凤山,吴华杰,卢厚清,等.基于DEA的地震作用下岩石边坡工程整体安全风险分析[J].地下空间与工程学报,2011,7(4):789-794.WANG Feng-shan,WU Hua-jie,LU Hou-qing,et al.Risk analysis about comprehensive safety of earthquake-damaged rock slope engineering based on DEA model[J].Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering,2011,7(4):789-794.
[9]王静,张明媛,袁永博,等.基于DEA-Tobit模型的城镇地震损失影响因素研究——以汶川地震为例[J].中国安全科学学报,2013,23(10):82-87.WANG Jing,ZHANG Ming-yuan,YUAN Yong-bo,et al.Research on factors affacting urban earthquake loss base on DEATobit model--a case study of Wenchuan earthquake[J].China Safety Science Journal,2013,23(10):82-87.
[10]Siad L,Megueddem M.Stability analysis of jointed rock slope[J].Mechanics Research Communications,1998,25(6):661-670.
[11]Lee Kwan Tun,Ho Jui-Yi.Prediction of landslide occurrence based on slope-instability analysis and hydrological model simulation[J].Journal of Hydrology,2009,375(3/4):489-497.
[12]Banker R D,Morey R C.Efficient analysis for exogenously fixed input and output[J].Journal of Operation Research,1986,34(3):513-521.
[13]刘艳,汪彤,丁辉,等.地铁车站拥挤踩踏事故风险评价DEA模型研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2013,23(10):100-104.LIU Yan,WANG Tong,DING Hui,et al.Research on risk assessment DEA model of crowd crushing and trampling accidents in subway stations[J].China Safety Science Journal,2013,23(10):100-104.
[14]WANG Ying-ming,LUO Ying.DEA efficiency assessment using ideal and anti-ideal decision making units[J].Applied Mathematics and Computation,2006,173(2):902-915.
[15]Charnes A,Cooper W,Rhodes E.Measuring the efficiency of decision-making units[J].European Journal of Operational Research,1978,2(6):429-444.
[16]匡海波.基于超效率CCR-DEA的中国港口上市公司成本效率评价研究[J].中国管理科学,2007,15(3):142-147.KUANG Hai-bo.Investigating cost efficiency of China port public companies based on sup-CCR-DEA[J].Chinese Journal of Management Science,2007,15(3):142-147.
[17]HU Jin-lin,WANG Shi-chuan.Total-factor energy efficiency of regions in China[J].Energy Policy,2006(17):3 206-3 211.
[18]刘宁.基于超效率Output-DEA模型的主产区粮食生产能力评价[J].软科学,2011,25(3):79-83.LIU Ning.Evaluation of the grain production capacity of major grain production area based on super-efficiency OutputDEA model[J].Soft Science,2011,25(3):79-83.
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