玉树7.1级地震震后损失快速评估
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摘要
2010年4月14日7时49分,在青海省玉树县发生里氏7.1级地震,震中位于北纬33.2°、东经96.6°,震源深度为14 km。在玉树地震发生后,基于经验模型的震后损失快速评估方法,用较少的信息和数据,对玉树地震灾情进行了快速应急评估,绘制了经验等震线图,给出了房屋损失的初步评估结果,与最终的损失调查统计结果相比,震后损失快速评估结果的合理程度比较令人满意。经过汶川地震、玉树地震等多个地震的损失快速评估工作,作者认为还需在地震断裂统计模型、地震动强度衰减关系模型、承灾体易损性模型、人口伤亡预测模型等多个方面进行改进和完善,来提高基于经验模型的震后损失快速评估精度。
On April 14,2010 at 7:49(am),an M7.1 earthquake shook Yushu County,Qinghai Province.Its epicenter is located at latitude 33.2° N and longitude 96.6° E,with hypocenter around 14km deep.After Yushu earthquake,using the empirical model of the post-earthquake fast loss assessment,with some statistical data and vulnerability curves of building,rapid emergency assessments were implemented,including the experience isoseismic zoning map and preliminary loss assessment results.Compared with the final survey results,the accuracy of the loss assessment results was satisfactory.For further improving the assessment accuracy of the empirical models,it is also argued that some empirical model need be enhanced,including the fault rupture model,ground motion attenuation relationship model,vulnerability model of buildings,and the forecasting model of the casualties.
On April 14,2010 at 7:49(am),an M7.1 earthquake shook Yushu County,Qinghai Province.Its epicenter is located at latitude 33.2° N and longitude 96.6° E,with hypocenter around 14km deep.After Yushu earthquake,using the empirical model of the post-earthquake fast loss assessment,with some statistical data and vulnerability curves of building,rapid emergency assessments were implemented,including the experience isoseismic zoning map and preliminary loss assessment results.Compared with the final survey results,the accuracy of the loss assessment results was satisfactory.For further improving the assessment accuracy of the empirical models,it is also argued that some empirical model need be enhanced,including the fault rupture model,ground motion attenuation relationship model,vulnerability model of buildings,and the forecasting model of the casualties.
引文
[1]中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局,中国国家标准化管理委员会.(GB/T18208.4-2005)地震现场工作第4部分:灾害直接损失评估[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2005.
[2]李树桢,尹之潜.地震损失评估与数据库系统[J].中国地震,1993,9(3):264-275.
[3]王瑛,史培军,王静爱.云南省农村乡镇地震灾害房屋损失评估[J].地震学报,2005,27(5),551-560.
[4]尹之潜,赵直,杨淑文.建筑物易损性和地震损失与地震加速度谱值的关系(上)[J].地震工程与工程振动,2003,23(4),195-200.
[5]尹之潜,杨淑文.地震损失分析与设防标准[M].2004,北京:地震出版社.
[6]胡少卿,孙柏涛,王东明,等.经验震害矩阵的完善方法研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,2007,27(6),46-50.
[7]徐国栋,方伟华,史培军,等.汶川地震损失快速评估[J].地震工程与工程振动,2008,28(6),65-74.
[8]Charles A Kircher,Robert V Whitman,William THolmes.HAZUS Earthquake Loss Estimation Methods[J].Natural Hazards Review,2006,7(2):45-59.
[9]Federal Emergency Management Agency(FEMA),HAZUS-MHMR1,Advanced Engineering Building Module Technical and User’s Manual[M].2003.Washington,D.C.
[10]Tianqing Cao,Mark D.Petersen.Uncertainty of Earthquake Losses due to model uncertainty of input ground motions in the Los Angeles Area[M].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2006,96(2):365-376.
[2]李树桢,尹之潜.地震损失评估与数据库系统[J].中国地震,1993,9(3):264-275.
[3]王瑛,史培军,王静爱.云南省农村乡镇地震灾害房屋损失评估[J].地震学报,2005,27(5),551-560.
[4]尹之潜,赵直,杨淑文.建筑物易损性和地震损失与地震加速度谱值的关系(上)[J].地震工程与工程振动,2003,23(4),195-200.
[5]尹之潜,杨淑文.地震损失分析与设防标准[M].2004,北京:地震出版社.
[6]胡少卿,孙柏涛,王东明,等.经验震害矩阵的完善方法研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,2007,27(6),46-50.
[7]徐国栋,方伟华,史培军,等.汶川地震损失快速评估[J].地震工程与工程振动,2008,28(6),65-74.
[8]Charles A Kircher,Robert V Whitman,William THolmes.HAZUS Earthquake Loss Estimation Methods[J].Natural Hazards Review,2006,7(2):45-59.
[9]Federal Emergency Management Agency(FEMA),HAZUS-MHMR1,Advanced Engineering Building Module Technical and User’s Manual[M].2003.Washington,D.C.
[10]Tianqing Cao,Mark D.Petersen.Uncertainty of Earthquake Losses due to model uncertainty of input ground motions in the Los Angeles Area[M].Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,2006,96(2):365-376.
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