汶川巨震与玉树强震地气系统演变的对比分析

英文篇名：A Comparative Analysis on the Evolution of Earth-gas System between Wenchuan Earthquake and Yushu Earthquake
中文刊名：西北地震学报
英文刊名：Northwestern Seismological Journal
作者：汤懋苍 ; 廖留峰 ; 邓国卫 ; 郭维栋 ; 惠小英
英文作者：TANG Mao-cang1 ; LIAO Liu-feng1 ; 2 ; DENG Guo-wei1 ; 2 ; GUO Wei-dong3 ; HUI Xiao-ying1(1.Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of Gansu Province ; Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute ; Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Lanzhou 73000 ; China ; 2.Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Science ; Beijing 100049 ; China ; 3.College of Atmospheric Science ; Nanjing University ; Nanjing 210093 ; China)
中文关键词：汶川地震 ; 玉树地震 ; 地气系统 ; “孕震三步曲” ; 降水场 ; 地温场
英文关键词：Wenchuang earthquake ; Yushu earthquake ; Earth-gas system ; "Earthquake-birth 3 step" ; Rainfall field ; Ground temperature field
出版日期：2012-06-30
机构：中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室;中国科学院研究生院;南京大学大气科学学院;
年：2012
期：02
出版单位：西北地震学报

摘要

分析了2008年汶川8.0级巨震和2010年玉树7.1级强震之前各月的3.2m地温场和降水场变化,发现它们均符合"强震孕育三步曲"。三步曲的时间点是:干热面积最大月(第一步):2006年8月和2009年6月;应变波始月(第二步):2007年7月和2009年7月;应变弱停月(第三步):2008年3月和2010年3月。2009年11月曾根据已得到的"孕震三步曲"规律,对玉树地震进行了预测,结果发震地点和时间均报错,仅震级报对,显示利用"孕震三步曲"预报地震还有很长的路要走。
The monthly 3.2 m-depth ground temperature and rainfall fields before the MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 and the MS7.1 Yushu earthquake in 2010 are analyzed separately.The "earthquake-birth 3 steps" law are found also before the two cases.The time nodes for each step started in for the two respective earthquakes were Aug.2006 and Jun.2009 with a largest dry-hot area appeared for the first step,Jul.2007 and Jul.2009 with a strain wave beginning for the second step,and Mar.2008 and Mar.2010 with the strain wave ending for the third step.We had made an earthquake prediction for Yushu case according to the "earthquake-birth 3 steps" law in Nov.2009,and the result showed that the magnitude forecasted was right but the location and the time were wrong.Therefore,though the "earthquake-birth 3 steps" is found,we still have a long way to make a prediction success.

引文

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