北祁连山-河西走廊大震危险区预测
|
摘要
以青藏块体北部的北祁连山-河西走廊地震构造带为研究对象,在系统收集整理该区主干活动断裂新活动性特征、断裂滑动速率、历史地震及古地震资料的基础上,结合现今地震活动性,采用地震空区、空段识别方法和地震活动b值空间图像扫描方法,分析了研究区内历史地震及b值的分布特征。结果显示,该区的榆木山北缘断裂离逝时间较长,应力积累程度较高,具有发生大震的构造条件,其未来大震危险性最高,值得高度关注。其次,该区的嘉峪关断裂也存在地震空段和低b值段,也应引起重视。
In recent years,many big earthquakes(M≥7) struck China and other nations.These big earthquakes may indicate that the earth is in a globally seismic active period.Therefore,in order to mitigate future earthquake disasters,the assessment of future big earthquake risk for major active boundary faults has been done as an important approach for mitigation.In this paper,our focus area is Northern Qilianshan-Hexi Corridor locating in northeastern of Qinghai-Tibet plateau.We collected and summarized the active faults' data sets systematically,e.g.geometrical characteristic,slip rate,rupture segmentation,latest rupture event and paleo-earthqakes.And based on these data sets,we use the methods of seismic gap identification and b value mapping to analyze the characteristics of historical earthquakes and b value.And then,high risk zones or faults of big earthquakes were identified synthetically.We think the Northern Yumushan Fault has the most probability of generating big earthquake in the future.Because the elapse time from the last event is long and b value along it is remarkably low,which betokens high stress.Meanwhile,attention should be paid too to the Jiayuguan Fault,where seismic gap and low b value zone exist too.
In recent years,many big earthquakes(M≥7) struck China and other nations.These big earthquakes may indicate that the earth is in a globally seismic active period.Therefore,in order to mitigate future earthquake disasters,the assessment of future big earthquake risk for major active boundary faults has been done as an important approach for mitigation.In this paper,our focus area is Northern Qilianshan-Hexi Corridor locating in northeastern of Qinghai-Tibet plateau.We collected and summarized the active faults' data sets systematically,e.g.geometrical characteristic,slip rate,rupture segmentation,latest rupture event and paleo-earthqakes.And based on these data sets,we use the methods of seismic gap identification and b value mapping to analyze the characteristics of historical earthquakes and b value.And then,high risk zones or faults of big earthquakes were identified synthetically.We think the Northern Yumushan Fault has the most probability of generating big earthquake in the future.Because the elapse time from the last event is long and b value along it is remarkably low,which betokens high stress.Meanwhile,attention should be paid too to the Jiayuguan Fault,where seismic gap and low b value zone exist too.
引文
边庆凯,张培震,苏向洲.2001.榆木山北缘断裂的构造地貌特征与断层活动性[J].华北地震科学,19(3):41—49.BIAN Qing-kai,ZHANG Pei-zhen,SU Xiang-zhou.2001.The tectonic topography feature of the faults in northYumushan Mountain and its faulting activity[J].North China Earthquake Sciences,19(3):41—49(inChinese).
曹娜,雷中生,袁道阳,等.2010a.公元180年甘肃表氏地震考[J].地震学报,32(6):744—753.CAO Na,LEI Zhong-sheng,YUAN Dao-yang,et al.2010a.Textual criticism on the Biaoshi,Gansu,earthquake in180AD[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,32(6):744—753(in Chinese).
曹娜.2010b.1609年红崖堡7级地震和180年表氏7级地震考证研究[D]:[学位论文].兰州:中国地震局兰州地震研究所.9—43.CAO Na.2010b.Textural research on Hongyaobao MS7in1609A.D.and Biaoshi MS7in180A.D.earthquakes[D]:M thesis.Lanzhou Institute of Seismology,CEA,Lanzhou.9—43(in Chinese).
陈柏林,刘建生,张永双,等.2005.玉门断裂全新世活动特征及其与玉门地震的关系[J].地质评论,51(2):138—142.CHEN Bo-lin,LIU Jian-sheng,ZHANG Yong-shuang,et al.2005.Activity of Yumen Fault during the Holocene and itsrelation to the Yumen earthquake[J].Geological Review,51(2):138—142(in Chinese).
陈杰,卢演俦,丁国瑜.1998.祁连山西段酒西盆地区阶地构造变形的研究[J].西北地震学报,20(1):28—36.CHEN Jie,LU Yan-chou,DING Guo-yu.1998.The latest Quaternary tectonic deformation of terraces of Jiuxi Basin inwest Qilianshan Mountains[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,20(1):28—36(in Chinese).
陈文彬,刘百篪,徐锡伟,等.1999.祁连山西段玉门断裂晚第四纪活动特征及相关问题的讨论[J].西北地震学报,21(4):389—394.CHEN Wen-bin,LIU Bai-chi,XU Xi-wei,et al.1999.Activity of the Yumen Fault,western Qilian Mountains,during lateQuaternary and its implication to regional tectonic movements[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,21(4):389—394(in Chinese).
董治平.2007.一九五四年山丹地震断裂带[M].兰州:兰州大学出版社.81—94.DONG Zhi-ping.2007.The Fault Zone of1954Shandan Earthquake[M].Lanzhou University Publishing House,Lanzhou.81—94(in Chinese).
冯建刚,姚家骏,代炜.2010.青藏高原北部地区小震目录完整性分析[J].高原地震,22(2):10—15.FENG Jian-gang,YAO Jia-jun,DAI Wei.2010.Analysis on minimum magnitude of completeness in earthquake catalogsin the north region of Qinghai-Xizang plateau[J].Plateau Earthquake Research,22(2):10—15(in Chinese).
国家地震局地质研究所,国家地震局兰州地震研究所.1993.祁连山-河西走廊活动断裂系[M].北京:地震出版社.148—174.Institute of Geology and Lanzhou Institute of Seismology,SSB.1993.The Qilianshan-Hexi Corridor Active Fault System[M].Seismological Press,Beijing.148—174(in Chinese).
何文贵,雷中生,袁道阳,等.2010a.1785年玉门惠回堡地震的震灾特点与发震构造[J].西北地震学报,32(1):47—53.HE Wen-gui,LEI Zhong-sheng,YUAN Dao-yang,et al.2010a.Disaster characteristics of Huihuipu earthquake in1785in Yumen,Gansu Province,and discussion on its seismogenic structure[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,32(1):47—53(in Chinese).
何文贵,袁道阳,王爱国,等.2010b.嘉峪关断裂中段的新活动特征[J].中国地震,26(3):296—303.HE Wen-gui,YUAN Dao-yang,WANG Ai-guo,et al.2010b.The activity characteristics in the central segment ofJiayuguan Fault[J].Earthquake Research in China,26(3):296—303(in Chinese).
何文贵,赵广堃,马尔曼,等.2004c.2002年甘肃玉门5.9级地震的地质背景研究[J].地震研究,27(4):363—368.HE Wen-gui,ZHAO Guang-kun,MA Er-man,et al.2004c.Study on geological background of the Yumen MS5.9earthquake in Gansu in2002[J].Journal of Seismological Research,27(4):363—368(in Chinese).
何文贵,郑文俊,赵广堃,等.2004a.2003年10月25日民乐-山丹6.1、5.8级地震烈度和发震构造特征[J].西北地震学报,26(3):240—245.HE Wen-gui,ZHENG Wen-jun,ZHAO Guang-kun,et al.2004a.Characteristics of intensity and seismogenic structureof Minle-Shandan MS6.1and MS5.8earthquakes on oct.25,2003[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,26(3):240—245(in Chinese).
何文贵,郑文俊,赵广堃,等.2004b.2002年12月14日甘肃玉门5.9级地震的发震构造研究[J].地震地质,26(4):688—697.HE Wen-gui,ZHENG Wen-jun,ZHAO Guang-kun,et al.2004b.Study on the seismogenic structure of the Yumen,GansuProvince MS5.9earthquake of December14,2002[J].Seismology and Geology,26(4):688—697(in Chinese).
金卿,何文贵,史志刚,等.2011.榆木山北缘断裂古地震特征研究[J].地震地质,33(2):347—355.JIN Qing,HE Wen-gui,SHI Zhi-gang,et al.2011.Palaeo-earthquake study on the northern Yumushan active fault[J].Seismology and Geology,33(2):347—355(in Chinese).
刘建生,刘百篪,袁道阳.1994.肃南断裂晚第四纪活动特征及古地震初步研究[A].见:国家地震局地质研究所编.活动断裂研究(3).北京:地震出版社.36—41.LIU Jian-sheng,LIU Bai-chi,YUAN Dao-yang.1994.Preliminary study on late Quaternary movement andpaleoseismicity along the Sunan Fault[A].In:Institute of Geology,SSB(ed).Research on Active Faults in China(3).Seismological Press,Beijing.36—41(in Chinese).
罗浩,雷中生,何文贵,等.2010.1954年甘肃山丹7级地震史料补遗[J].震灾防御技术,5(2):185—198.LUO Hao,LEI Zhong-sheng,HE Wen-gui,et al.2010.An addendum of historical records of Shandan,Gansu ProvinceM7Earthquake in1954[J].Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,5(2):185—198(in Chinese).
闵伟,张培震,何文贵,等.2002.酒西盆地断层活动特征及古地震研究[J].地震地质,24(1):35—44(inChinese).MIN Wei,ZHANG Pei-zhen,HE Wen-gui,et al.2002.Research on the active faults and paleoearthquakes in thewestern Jiuquan Basin[J].Seismology and Geology,24(1):35—44(in Chinese).
邵延秀,袁道阳,王爱国,等.2011.西秦岭北缘断裂破裂分段与地震危险性评估[J].地震地质,33(1):79—90.SHAO Yan-xiu,YUAN Dao-yang,WANG Ai-guo,et al.2011.The characteristic of segments and estimate of earthquakerisk along the Western Qinling Fault zone[J].Seismology and Geology,33(1):79—90(in Chinese).
时振梁,环文林,谢原定.1982.河西走廊西部的活动断层与地震[A].中国地震学会地震地质专业委员会编.中国活动断裂.北京:地震出版社:212—218.SHI Zhen-liang,HUAN Wen-lin,XIE Yuan-ding.1982.Active faults and earthquakes in the western part of HexiCorridor[A].In:Committee on Seismogeology,The Seismological society of China(ed).Research on ActiveFaults in China.Seismological Press,Beijing.212—218(in Chinese).
易桂喜,范军,闻学泽.2005.由现今地震活动分析鲜水河断裂带中-南段活动习性与强震危险地段[J].地震,25(1):58—66.YI Gui-xi,FAN Jun,WEN Xue-ze.2005.Study on faulting behavior and fault-segments for potential strong earthquakerisk along the central-southern segment of Xianshuihe Fault zone based on current seismicity[J].Earthquake,25(1):58—66(in Chinese).
易桂喜,闻学泽.2007.多地震活动性参数在断裂带现今活动习性与地震危险性评价中的应用与问题[J].地震地质,29(2):254—271.YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze.2007.The application and limitation of multiple seismicity parameters to assessing current faultingbehavior and seismic potential of active fault zones[J].Seismology and Geology,29(2):254—271(in Chinese).
易桂喜,闻学泽,范军,等.2004a.由地震活动参数分析安宁河-则木河断裂带的现今活动习性及地震危险性[J].地震学报,26(3):294—303.YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze,FAN Jun,et al.2004a.Assessing current faulting behaviors and seismic risk of the AnningheZemuhe Fault zone from seismicity parameters[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,26(3):294—303(in Chinese).
易桂喜,闻学泽,徐锡伟.2004b.山西断陷带太原-临汾部分的强地震平均复发间隔与未来危险段落研究[J].地震学报,26(4):387—395.YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze,XU Xi-wei.2004b.Average recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes and potential riskysegments along the Taiyuan-Linfen portion of the Shanxi graben system[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,26(4):387—395(in Chinese).
易桂喜,闻学泽,王思维,等.2006.由地震活动参数分析龙门山-岷山断裂带的现今活动习性与强震危险性[J].中国地震,22(2):117—125.YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze,WANG Si-wei,et al.2006.Study on fault sliding behaviors and strong-earthquake risk of theLongmenshan-Minshan Fault zones from current seismicity parameters[J].Earthquake Research in China,22(2):117—125(in Chinese).
易桂喜,闻学泽,苏有锦.2008.川滇活动地块东边界强震危险性研究[J].地球物理学报,51(6):1719—1725.YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze,SU You-jin.2008.Study on the potential strong-earthquake risk for the eastern boundary of theSichuan-Yunnan active faulted-block,China[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,51(6):1719—1725(in Chinese).
袁道阳,刘百篪.1998.甘青地区未来强震危险区的综合判定[J].高原地震,10(3):8—15.YUAN Dao-yang,LIU Bai-chi.1998.The comprehensive prediction of the strong earthquake risk regions in the future inGansu and Qinghai areas[J].Plateau Earthquake Research,10(3):8—15(in Chinese).
郑文俊.2009b.河西走廊及其邻区活动构造图像及构造变形模式[D]:[学位论文].北京:中国地震局地质研究所.96—103.ZHENG Wen-jun.2009b.Geometric pattern and active tectonics of the Hexi Corridor and its adjacent regions[D].Mthesis.Institute of Geology,CEA,Beijing.96—103(in Chinese).
郑文俊,何文贵,赵广堃,等.2005.2003年甘肃民乐-山丹6.1,5.8级地震发震构造及发震机制探讨[J].地震研究,28(2):133—140.ZHENG Wen-jun,HE Wen-gui,ZHAO Guang-kun,et al.2005.Discussion on the causative structure and mechanism ofthe2003Minle-Shandan,Gansu,M6.1and M5.8earthquakes[J].Journal of Seismological Research,28(2):133—140(in Chinese).
郑文俊,张培震,袁道阳,等.2009a.甘肃高台合黎山南缘发现地震地表破裂带[J].地震地质,31(2):247—255.ZHENG Wen-jun,ZHANG Pei-zhen,YUAN Dao-yang,et al.2009a.Discovery of surface rupture zone on the south ofHelishan in Gaotai,Gansu Province[J].Seismology and Geology,31(2):247—255(in Chinese).
Aki K.1965.Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the formula logN=a-bM and its confidence limits[J].Bull EarthqRes,43:237—239.
Bender B.1983.Maximum likelihood estimation of b value for magnitude grouped data[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,73(3):831—851.
Gutenberg B,Richter C F.1945.Seismicity of the earth[J].GSA Bulletin,56(6):603—667.
Hetzel R,Niedermann S,Tao M,et al.2002.Low slip rates and long-term preservation of geomorphic features in CentralAsia[J].Nature,417:428—432.
Hetzel R,Tao M,Stokes S,et al.2004.Late Pleistocene/Holocene slip rate of the Zhangye thrust(Qilianshan,China)and implications for the active growth of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau[J].Tectonics,23:TC6006.doi:10.1029/2004TC001653.
Mogi K.1979.Two kinds of seismic gaps[J].Purel Appl Geophys,117:1172—1186.
Shi Y,Bolt B A.1982.The standard error of the magnitude frequency b-value[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,72(5):1677—1687.
Tapponnier P,Meyer B,Avouac J P,et al.1990.Active thrusting and folding in the Qilianshan and decoupling betweenupper crust and mantle in northeastern Tibet[J].Earth Planet Sci Lett,97:382—403.
Utsu T.1965.A method for determining the value of b in formula logN=a-bM showing the magnitude-frequencyrelation for earthquakes[J].Geophys Bull,13:99—103.
Wells D L,Kevin C J.1994.New empirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length,rupture width,rupture area,and surface displacement[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,84(4):974—1002.
Wiemer S,Wyss M.2000.Minimum magnitude of completeness in earthquake catalogs:Examples from Alaska,theWestern United States,and Japan[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,90(4):859—869.
Wiemer S,Wyss M.2002.Mapping spatial variability of the frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes[J].Advances in Geophysics,45:259—302.
Woessner J,Wiemer S.2005.Assessing the quality of earthquake catalogues:Estimating the magnitude of completenessand its uncertainty[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,95(2):684—698.
曹娜,雷中生,袁道阳,等.2010a.公元180年甘肃表氏地震考[J].地震学报,32(6):744—753.CAO Na,LEI Zhong-sheng,YUAN Dao-yang,et al.2010a.Textual criticism on the Biaoshi,Gansu,earthquake in180AD[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,32(6):744—753(in Chinese).
曹娜.2010b.1609年红崖堡7级地震和180年表氏7级地震考证研究[D]:[学位论文].兰州:中国地震局兰州地震研究所.9—43.CAO Na.2010b.Textural research on Hongyaobao MS7in1609A.D.and Biaoshi MS7in180A.D.earthquakes[D]:M thesis.Lanzhou Institute of Seismology,CEA,Lanzhou.9—43(in Chinese).
陈柏林,刘建生,张永双,等.2005.玉门断裂全新世活动特征及其与玉门地震的关系[J].地质评论,51(2):138—142.CHEN Bo-lin,LIU Jian-sheng,ZHANG Yong-shuang,et al.2005.Activity of Yumen Fault during the Holocene and itsrelation to the Yumen earthquake[J].Geological Review,51(2):138—142(in Chinese).
陈杰,卢演俦,丁国瑜.1998.祁连山西段酒西盆地区阶地构造变形的研究[J].西北地震学报,20(1):28—36.CHEN Jie,LU Yan-chou,DING Guo-yu.1998.The latest Quaternary tectonic deformation of terraces of Jiuxi Basin inwest Qilianshan Mountains[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,20(1):28—36(in Chinese).
陈文彬,刘百篪,徐锡伟,等.1999.祁连山西段玉门断裂晚第四纪活动特征及相关问题的讨论[J].西北地震学报,21(4):389—394.CHEN Wen-bin,LIU Bai-chi,XU Xi-wei,et al.1999.Activity of the Yumen Fault,western Qilian Mountains,during lateQuaternary and its implication to regional tectonic movements[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,21(4):389—394(in Chinese).
董治平.2007.一九五四年山丹地震断裂带[M].兰州:兰州大学出版社.81—94.DONG Zhi-ping.2007.The Fault Zone of1954Shandan Earthquake[M].Lanzhou University Publishing House,Lanzhou.81—94(in Chinese).
冯建刚,姚家骏,代炜.2010.青藏高原北部地区小震目录完整性分析[J].高原地震,22(2):10—15.FENG Jian-gang,YAO Jia-jun,DAI Wei.2010.Analysis on minimum magnitude of completeness in earthquake catalogsin the north region of Qinghai-Xizang plateau[J].Plateau Earthquake Research,22(2):10—15(in Chinese).
国家地震局地质研究所,国家地震局兰州地震研究所.1993.祁连山-河西走廊活动断裂系[M].北京:地震出版社.148—174.Institute of Geology and Lanzhou Institute of Seismology,SSB.1993.The Qilianshan-Hexi Corridor Active Fault System[M].Seismological Press,Beijing.148—174(in Chinese).
何文贵,雷中生,袁道阳,等.2010a.1785年玉门惠回堡地震的震灾特点与发震构造[J].西北地震学报,32(1):47—53.HE Wen-gui,LEI Zhong-sheng,YUAN Dao-yang,et al.2010a.Disaster characteristics of Huihuipu earthquake in1785in Yumen,Gansu Province,and discussion on its seismogenic structure[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,32(1):47—53(in Chinese).
何文贵,袁道阳,王爱国,等.2010b.嘉峪关断裂中段的新活动特征[J].中国地震,26(3):296—303.HE Wen-gui,YUAN Dao-yang,WANG Ai-guo,et al.2010b.The activity characteristics in the central segment ofJiayuguan Fault[J].Earthquake Research in China,26(3):296—303(in Chinese).
何文贵,赵广堃,马尔曼,等.2004c.2002年甘肃玉门5.9级地震的地质背景研究[J].地震研究,27(4):363—368.HE Wen-gui,ZHAO Guang-kun,MA Er-man,et al.2004c.Study on geological background of the Yumen MS5.9earthquake in Gansu in2002[J].Journal of Seismological Research,27(4):363—368(in Chinese).
何文贵,郑文俊,赵广堃,等.2004a.2003年10月25日民乐-山丹6.1、5.8级地震烈度和发震构造特征[J].西北地震学报,26(3):240—245.HE Wen-gui,ZHENG Wen-jun,ZHAO Guang-kun,et al.2004a.Characteristics of intensity and seismogenic structureof Minle-Shandan MS6.1and MS5.8earthquakes on oct.25,2003[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,26(3):240—245(in Chinese).
何文贵,郑文俊,赵广堃,等.2004b.2002年12月14日甘肃玉门5.9级地震的发震构造研究[J].地震地质,26(4):688—697.HE Wen-gui,ZHENG Wen-jun,ZHAO Guang-kun,et al.2004b.Study on the seismogenic structure of the Yumen,GansuProvince MS5.9earthquake of December14,2002[J].Seismology and Geology,26(4):688—697(in Chinese).
金卿,何文贵,史志刚,等.2011.榆木山北缘断裂古地震特征研究[J].地震地质,33(2):347—355.JIN Qing,HE Wen-gui,SHI Zhi-gang,et al.2011.Palaeo-earthquake study on the northern Yumushan active fault[J].Seismology and Geology,33(2):347—355(in Chinese).
刘建生,刘百篪,袁道阳.1994.肃南断裂晚第四纪活动特征及古地震初步研究[A].见:国家地震局地质研究所编.活动断裂研究(3).北京:地震出版社.36—41.LIU Jian-sheng,LIU Bai-chi,YUAN Dao-yang.1994.Preliminary study on late Quaternary movement andpaleoseismicity along the Sunan Fault[A].In:Institute of Geology,SSB(ed).Research on Active Faults in China(3).Seismological Press,Beijing.36—41(in Chinese).
罗浩,雷中生,何文贵,等.2010.1954年甘肃山丹7级地震史料补遗[J].震灾防御技术,5(2):185—198.LUO Hao,LEI Zhong-sheng,HE Wen-gui,et al.2010.An addendum of historical records of Shandan,Gansu ProvinceM7Earthquake in1954[J].Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,5(2):185—198(in Chinese).
闵伟,张培震,何文贵,等.2002.酒西盆地断层活动特征及古地震研究[J].地震地质,24(1):35—44(inChinese).MIN Wei,ZHANG Pei-zhen,HE Wen-gui,et al.2002.Research on the active faults and paleoearthquakes in thewestern Jiuquan Basin[J].Seismology and Geology,24(1):35—44(in Chinese).
邵延秀,袁道阳,王爱国,等.2011.西秦岭北缘断裂破裂分段与地震危险性评估[J].地震地质,33(1):79—90.SHAO Yan-xiu,YUAN Dao-yang,WANG Ai-guo,et al.2011.The characteristic of segments and estimate of earthquakerisk along the Western Qinling Fault zone[J].Seismology and Geology,33(1):79—90(in Chinese).
时振梁,环文林,谢原定.1982.河西走廊西部的活动断层与地震[A].中国地震学会地震地质专业委员会编.中国活动断裂.北京:地震出版社:212—218.SHI Zhen-liang,HUAN Wen-lin,XIE Yuan-ding.1982.Active faults and earthquakes in the western part of HexiCorridor[A].In:Committee on Seismogeology,The Seismological society of China(ed).Research on ActiveFaults in China.Seismological Press,Beijing.212—218(in Chinese).
易桂喜,范军,闻学泽.2005.由现今地震活动分析鲜水河断裂带中-南段活动习性与强震危险地段[J].地震,25(1):58—66.YI Gui-xi,FAN Jun,WEN Xue-ze.2005.Study on faulting behavior and fault-segments for potential strong earthquakerisk along the central-southern segment of Xianshuihe Fault zone based on current seismicity[J].Earthquake,25(1):58—66(in Chinese).
易桂喜,闻学泽.2007.多地震活动性参数在断裂带现今活动习性与地震危险性评价中的应用与问题[J].地震地质,29(2):254—271.YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze.2007.The application and limitation of multiple seismicity parameters to assessing current faultingbehavior and seismic potential of active fault zones[J].Seismology and Geology,29(2):254—271(in Chinese).
易桂喜,闻学泽,范军,等.2004a.由地震活动参数分析安宁河-则木河断裂带的现今活动习性及地震危险性[J].地震学报,26(3):294—303.YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze,FAN Jun,et al.2004a.Assessing current faulting behaviors and seismic risk of the AnningheZemuhe Fault zone from seismicity parameters[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,26(3):294—303(in Chinese).
易桂喜,闻学泽,徐锡伟.2004b.山西断陷带太原-临汾部分的强地震平均复发间隔与未来危险段落研究[J].地震学报,26(4):387—395.YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze,XU Xi-wei.2004b.Average recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes and potential riskysegments along the Taiyuan-Linfen portion of the Shanxi graben system[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,26(4):387—395(in Chinese).
易桂喜,闻学泽,王思维,等.2006.由地震活动参数分析龙门山-岷山断裂带的现今活动习性与强震危险性[J].中国地震,22(2):117—125.YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze,WANG Si-wei,et al.2006.Study on fault sliding behaviors and strong-earthquake risk of theLongmenshan-Minshan Fault zones from current seismicity parameters[J].Earthquake Research in China,22(2):117—125(in Chinese).
易桂喜,闻学泽,苏有锦.2008.川滇活动地块东边界强震危险性研究[J].地球物理学报,51(6):1719—1725.YI Gui-xi,WEN Xue-ze,SU You-jin.2008.Study on the potential strong-earthquake risk for the eastern boundary of theSichuan-Yunnan active faulted-block,China[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,51(6):1719—1725(in Chinese).
袁道阳,刘百篪.1998.甘青地区未来强震危险区的综合判定[J].高原地震,10(3):8—15.YUAN Dao-yang,LIU Bai-chi.1998.The comprehensive prediction of the strong earthquake risk regions in the future inGansu and Qinghai areas[J].Plateau Earthquake Research,10(3):8—15(in Chinese).
郑文俊.2009b.河西走廊及其邻区活动构造图像及构造变形模式[D]:[学位论文].北京:中国地震局地质研究所.96—103.ZHENG Wen-jun.2009b.Geometric pattern and active tectonics of the Hexi Corridor and its adjacent regions[D].Mthesis.Institute of Geology,CEA,Beijing.96—103(in Chinese).
郑文俊,何文贵,赵广堃,等.2005.2003年甘肃民乐-山丹6.1,5.8级地震发震构造及发震机制探讨[J].地震研究,28(2):133—140.ZHENG Wen-jun,HE Wen-gui,ZHAO Guang-kun,et al.2005.Discussion on the causative structure and mechanism ofthe2003Minle-Shandan,Gansu,M6.1and M5.8earthquakes[J].Journal of Seismological Research,28(2):133—140(in Chinese).
郑文俊,张培震,袁道阳,等.2009a.甘肃高台合黎山南缘发现地震地表破裂带[J].地震地质,31(2):247—255.ZHENG Wen-jun,ZHANG Pei-zhen,YUAN Dao-yang,et al.2009a.Discovery of surface rupture zone on the south ofHelishan in Gaotai,Gansu Province[J].Seismology and Geology,31(2):247—255(in Chinese).
Aki K.1965.Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the formula logN=a-bM and its confidence limits[J].Bull EarthqRes,43:237—239.
Bender B.1983.Maximum likelihood estimation of b value for magnitude grouped data[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,73(3):831—851.
Gutenberg B,Richter C F.1945.Seismicity of the earth[J].GSA Bulletin,56(6):603—667.
Hetzel R,Niedermann S,Tao M,et al.2002.Low slip rates and long-term preservation of geomorphic features in CentralAsia[J].Nature,417:428—432.
Hetzel R,Tao M,Stokes S,et al.2004.Late Pleistocene/Holocene slip rate of the Zhangye thrust(Qilianshan,China)and implications for the active growth of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau[J].Tectonics,23:TC6006.doi:10.1029/2004TC001653.
Mogi K.1979.Two kinds of seismic gaps[J].Purel Appl Geophys,117:1172—1186.
Shi Y,Bolt B A.1982.The standard error of the magnitude frequency b-value[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,72(5):1677—1687.
Tapponnier P,Meyer B,Avouac J P,et al.1990.Active thrusting and folding in the Qilianshan and decoupling betweenupper crust and mantle in northeastern Tibet[J].Earth Planet Sci Lett,97:382—403.
Utsu T.1965.A method for determining the value of b in formula logN=a-bM showing the magnitude-frequencyrelation for earthquakes[J].Geophys Bull,13:99—103.
Wells D L,Kevin C J.1994.New empirical relationships among magnitude,rupture length,rupture width,rupture area,and surface displacement[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,84(4):974—1002.
Wiemer S,Wyss M.2000.Minimum magnitude of completeness in earthquake catalogs:Examples from Alaska,theWestern United States,and Japan[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,90(4):859—869.
Wiemer S,Wyss M.2002.Mapping spatial variability of the frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes[J].Advances in Geophysics,45:259—302.
Woessner J,Wiemer S.2005.Assessing the quality of earthquake catalogues:Estimating the magnitude of completenessand its uncertainty[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,95(2):684—698.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心