中国大陆活动地块边界带最大震级分布特征研究
|
摘要
中国大陆活动地块边界带是强震活动的集中带,也是地震预测研究与防灾减灾的主要目标区,而最大地震震级是描述区域地震活动性的一个基本参数,被广泛应用于地震危险性分析研究中,因此有必要开展各活动地块边界带最大震级分布特征研究。本文利用广义极值(GEV)分布对各边界带作极值统计分析,对于分布参数进行估计,比较极值分布99%分位数和b值截距法最大震级、历史最大震级,并计算各震级水平下地震平均复发周期与发震次数,探讨活动地块各边界带未来强震活动的危险性。
Previous studies have pointed out that the active block boundaries in Chinese mainland are the concentration belts of strong earthquakes and the main target zones of earthquake prediction research and disaster prevention.The largest earthquake magnitude is one of the basic parameters in regional seismicity descriptions.It is widely used in seismic risk analysis research.Therefore,it is necessary to carry out studies of the maximum magnitude distribution on the active block boundaries.In this paper,we carry out the extreme statistical analysis on the active block boundaries by using the generalized extreme value distribution to get the estimation of distribution parameters.We compare the quantile of a level 0.99 for extreme value distribution,the theoretic maximum magnitude from G-R relation and historical maximum magnitude.The average recurrence period and the number of earthquakes are calculated,and the seismic risk of strong earthquakes on active block boundaries in the future is discussed.
Previous studies have pointed out that the active block boundaries in Chinese mainland are the concentration belts of strong earthquakes and the main target zones of earthquake prediction research and disaster prevention.The largest earthquake magnitude is one of the basic parameters in regional seismicity descriptions.It is widely used in seismic risk analysis research.Therefore,it is necessary to carry out studies of the maximum magnitude distribution on the active block boundaries.In this paper,we carry out the extreme statistical analysis on the active block boundaries by using the generalized extreme value distribution to get the estimation of distribution parameters.We compare the quantile of a level 0.99 for extreme value distribution,the theoretic maximum magnitude from G-R relation and historical maximum magnitude.The average recurrence period and the number of earthquakes are calculated,and the seismic risk of strong earthquakes on active block boundaries in the future is discussed.
引文
[1]张国民,张培震.“大陆强震机理与预测”中期学术进展[J].中国基础科学,2000,10:4-10.
[2]张培震,邓起东,张国民,等.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J].中国科学(D辑),2003,33(增刊):12-20.
[3]张国民,马宏生,王辉,等.中国大陆活动地块边界带与强震活动[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(3):602-610.
[4]马宏生,张国民,刘杰,等.中国大陆活动地块边界带强震活动特征的研究[J].地震地质,2006,28(1):48-60.
[5]马宏生,张国民,刘杰,等.中国大陆及其邻区强震活动与活动地块关系研究[J].地学前缘,2003,10(特刊):74-80.
[6]邵志刚,张国民,李志雄,等.中国大陆活动地块边界带地震活动过程及其趋势研究[J].地震,2008,28(3):33-42.
[7]张浪平,李志雄,邵志刚,等.中国大陆活动地块边界带强震趋势研究[J].地震,2010,30(3):53-63.
[8]国家地震局震害防御司.地震工作手册[M].北京:地震出版社.1990.
[9]Epstein B,Lomnitz C.A Model for the Occurrence of the Largest Earthquakes[J].Nature,1966,211:954-956.
[10]Yegulalp T M,Kuo J A.Statistical Prediction of the Occurrence of Maximum Magnitude Earth-quakes[J].BSSA,1974,64:393-414.
[11]陈虹,黄忠贤.应用混合极值理论及最大似然法估计中国大陆地震危险性[J].地震学报,1995,17(2):264-269.
[12]秦卫平.定时段最大地震震级分布问题[J].地震研究,1983,6(4):591-602.
[13]张卫东,李茂林,张秀梅,等.极值理论在地震危险性分析中的应用与研究[J].东北地震研究,2005,21(1):24-30.
[14]钱小仕,王福昌.广义极值分布在地震危险性分析中的应用[J].地震研究,2012,待刊.
[15]史道济.实用极值统计方法[M].天津:天津科学技术出版社.2006.
[16]Fisher R,Tippett L H.Limiting forms of the frequency distributions of the largest or smallest mem-ber of a sample[J].Proc Camb Phil Soc,1928,24(2):180-190.
[17]钱小仕,王福昌,曹桂荣,任晴晴.广义极值分布在地震危险性分析中的应用[J].地震研究,2012,35(1):73-78.
[18]陈凌,刘杰,陈颙,等.地震活动性分析中余震的删除[J].地球物理学报,1998,41(增刊):244-252.
[19]Pisarenko V E,Sornette A,Rodkin M V.New approach to the characterization of Mmax and of the tail of the distribution of earthquake magnitudes[J].Pure Appl Geophys,2008,165:1-42.
[20]陈颙,陈凌.地震危险性分析中最大地震震级的确定[J].地球物理学报,1999,42(3):351-357.
[2]张培震,邓起东,张国民,等.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J].中国科学(D辑),2003,33(增刊):12-20.
[3]张国民,马宏生,王辉,等.中国大陆活动地块边界带与强震活动[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(3):602-610.
[4]马宏生,张国民,刘杰,等.中国大陆活动地块边界带强震活动特征的研究[J].地震地质,2006,28(1):48-60.
[5]马宏生,张国民,刘杰,等.中国大陆及其邻区强震活动与活动地块关系研究[J].地学前缘,2003,10(特刊):74-80.
[6]邵志刚,张国民,李志雄,等.中国大陆活动地块边界带地震活动过程及其趋势研究[J].地震,2008,28(3):33-42.
[7]张浪平,李志雄,邵志刚,等.中国大陆活动地块边界带强震趋势研究[J].地震,2010,30(3):53-63.
[8]国家地震局震害防御司.地震工作手册[M].北京:地震出版社.1990.
[9]Epstein B,Lomnitz C.A Model for the Occurrence of the Largest Earthquakes[J].Nature,1966,211:954-956.
[10]Yegulalp T M,Kuo J A.Statistical Prediction of the Occurrence of Maximum Magnitude Earth-quakes[J].BSSA,1974,64:393-414.
[11]陈虹,黄忠贤.应用混合极值理论及最大似然法估计中国大陆地震危险性[J].地震学报,1995,17(2):264-269.
[12]秦卫平.定时段最大地震震级分布问题[J].地震研究,1983,6(4):591-602.
[13]张卫东,李茂林,张秀梅,等.极值理论在地震危险性分析中的应用与研究[J].东北地震研究,2005,21(1):24-30.
[14]钱小仕,王福昌.广义极值分布在地震危险性分析中的应用[J].地震研究,2012,待刊.
[15]史道济.实用极值统计方法[M].天津:天津科学技术出版社.2006.
[16]Fisher R,Tippett L H.Limiting forms of the frequency distributions of the largest or smallest mem-ber of a sample[J].Proc Camb Phil Soc,1928,24(2):180-190.
[17]钱小仕,王福昌,曹桂荣,任晴晴.广义极值分布在地震危险性分析中的应用[J].地震研究,2012,35(1):73-78.
[18]陈凌,刘杰,陈颙,等.地震活动性分析中余震的删除[J].地球物理学报,1998,41(增刊):244-252.
[19]Pisarenko V E,Sornette A,Rodkin M V.New approach to the characterization of Mmax and of the tail of the distribution of earthquake magnitudes[J].Pure Appl Geophys,2008,165:1-42.
[20]陈颙,陈凌.地震危险性分析中最大地震震级的确定[J].地球物理学报,1999,42(3):351-357.
版权所有：© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心