基于改进的随机有限断层模型进行区域烈度速报
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摘要
一次地震发生之后,地震烈度的迅速圈定对于总体灾情评估、地震应急响应和救灾物资调拨分配等均有重要意义.近年来随着地震科学的发展,强地面运动数值模拟已经成为定量化估计强地面运动的重要手段.在众多震源数值模型中,随机有限断层模型以其时效性和精确性成为烈度速报的首选模型.在本研究中,我们对原有的随机有限断层模型进行改进,实现了峰值加速度(PGA)、峰值速度(PGV)和峰值位移(PGD)的区域网格化计算,并且加入了浅层速度结构V30对模型模拟结果的影响.在2004Parkfield MW6.0地震、2008年汶川MW7.9地震以及1976年唐山MW7.6地震的实例应用中,数值模拟得到的烈度分布与野外调查烈度在整体分布特征、极震区烈度分布等方面均符合较好,该数值模型单个网格点的计算时间在0.3～0.5s左右,并且随着并行计算技术的引入计算耗时会进一步缩短.随机有限断层模型有效弥补了其他震源数值模型的不足之处,最大限度做到了快速且准确,可以作为烈度速报的一种数值模拟手段.
Rapid regional MMI mapping soon after a moderate-large earthquake is crucial to loss estimation,emergency services and planning of emergency action by the government.In recent years,numerical simulation of strong ground motion has been well developed with the progress of earthquake science,and it has become an important means to estimate strong ground motion.In many of the models,stochastic finite fault model is preferred to rapid MMI estimating for its time-effectiveness and accuracy.In this research,we improve the original program EXSIM and the modified program named MEXSIM realizes regional computation of PGA(Peak Ground Acceleration),PGV(Peak Ground Velocity) and PGD(Peak Ground Displacement) which are essential for MMI estimating.Also,we consider the impact of V30,and the result of the comparison between the simulation and the observed MMI for Parkfield MW 6.0 earthquake,Wenchuan MW 7.9 earthquake and Tangshan MW 7.6 earthquake is fairly well.The consumed time of computing process for single point is about 0.3~0.5 s econd now in CPU with 3.40 GHz,and the consumed time will further reduce with the application of parallel computing techniques.
Rapid regional MMI mapping soon after a moderate-large earthquake is crucial to loss estimation,emergency services and planning of emergency action by the government.In recent years,numerical simulation of strong ground motion has been well developed with the progress of earthquake science,and it has become an important means to estimate strong ground motion.In many of the models,stochastic finite fault model is preferred to rapid MMI estimating for its time-effectiveness and accuracy.In this research,we improve the original program EXSIM and the modified program named MEXSIM realizes regional computation of PGA(Peak Ground Acceleration),PGV(Peak Ground Velocity) and PGD(Peak Ground Displacement) which are essential for MMI estimating.Also,we consider the impact of V30,and the result of the comparison between the simulation and the observed MMI for Parkfield MW 6.0 earthquake,Wenchuan MW 7.9 earthquake and Tangshan MW 7.6 earthquake is fairly well.The consumed time of computing process for single point is about 0.3~0.5 s econd now in CPU with 3.40 GHz,and the consumed time will further reduce with the application of parallel computing techniques.
引文
[1]王海云,谢礼立.近断层强地震动场预测[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(3):703-711.Wang H Y,Xie L L.Prediction of near-fault strong groundmotion field[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2009,52(3):703-711.
[2]Wald D J,Quitoriano V,Heaton T H,et al.TriNet“shakemaps”:rapid generation of peak ground motion and intensity maps forearthquakes in southern California[J].Earthquake Spectra,1999,15(3):537-555.
[3]陈会忠,侯燕燕,何加勇,等.日本地震预警系统日趋完善[J].国际地震动态,2011,(4):10-15.Chen H Z,Hou Y Y,He J Y,et al.The well development ofearthquake warning system of Japan[J].Recent Developmentsin World Seismology(in Chinese),2011,(4):10-15.
[4]张晁军,李卫东,李大辉,等.有关地震烈度速报信息化发展的思考[J].国际地震动态,2010,(4):23-31.Zhang C J,Li W D,Li D H,et al.Some thoughts concerningdevelopment of rapid report of seismic intensity information[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology(in Chinese),2010,(4):23-31.
[5]Convertito V,De Matteis R,Cantore L,eta l.Rapid estimation ofground-shaking maps for seismic emergency management in theCampania Region of southern Italy[J].Nat.hazards,2010,52(1):97-115.
[6]王海云.近场强地震动预测的有限断层震源模型[D].哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所.Wang H Y.Finite Fault Source Model for Predicting Near-field Strong Ground Motion(in Chinese)[D].HarbinInstitute of Engineering Mechanics China EarthquakeAdministration.
[7]孟令媛,史保平.应用动态复合震源模型模拟汶川MW7.9地震强地面运动[J].地球物理学报,2011,54(4):1010-1027.Meng L Y,Shi B P.Near-fault strong ground motionsimulation of the May 12,2008,MW7.9Wenchuan Earthquakeby dynamical composite source model[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2011,54(4):1010-1027.
[8]Hanks T C,McGuire R K.The character of high-frequencystrong ground motion[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,1981,71(6):2071-2095.
[9]Boore D M.Stochastic simulation of high-frequency groundmotions based on seismological models of the radiated spectra[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,1983,73(6A):1865-1894.
[10]Boore D M.Simulation of ground motion using the stochasticmethod[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,2003,160(3):635-676.
[11]Beresnev I A,Atkinson G M.Modeling finite-fault radiationfrom theωn spectrum[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,1997,87(1):67-84.
[12]郭志,高星,王卫民.2006年12月26日台湾南部滨海MS7.2级地震破裂过程研究[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(4):1103-1113.Guo Z,Gao X,Wang W M.Rupture process of southernTaiwan offshore MS7.2earthquake of Dec,12,2006[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2008,51(4):1103-1113.
[13]李娟,王卫民,赵连锋.2004年7月11日西藏MW6.2级地震震源破裂过程研究[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(4):843-850.Li J,Wang W M,Zhao L F,et al.Rupture process of theJuly 11,2004,Tibet(MW6.2)earthquake[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2005,48(4):843-850.
[14]Motazedian D,Atkinson G M.Dynamic corner frequency:anew concept in stochastic finite fault modeling[A].//Seismological Society of America Meeting[C].Victoria,2003.
[15]Motazedian D,Atkinson G M.Stochastic finite-fault modelingbased on a dynamic corner frequency[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,2005,95(3):995-1010.
[16]Atkinson G M,Boore D M.Ground-motion relations for easternNorth America[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,1995,85(1):17-30.
[17]王国新,史家平.随机有限断层法在汶川强地震动模拟中的应用[J].自然科学进展,2009,19(6):664-669.Wang Guoxin,Shi Ping.Application of the stochastic finitefault method in Wenchuan strong ground motion simulation(J).Progress in natural science,2009,19(6):664-669.
[18]陶夏新,王国新.近场强地震动模拟中对破裂的方向性效应和上盘效应的表达[J].地震学报,2003,25(2):191-198.Tao X X,Wang G X.Rupture directivity and hanging walleffect in near field strong ground motion simulation[J].ActaSeismologica Sinica(in Chinese),2003,25(2):191-198.
[19]王伟君,刘澜波,陈棋福,等.应用微动H/V谱比法和台阵技术探测场地响应和浅层速度结构[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(6):1515-1525.Wang W J,Liu LB,Chen Q F,et al.Applications ofmicrotremor H/V spectral ratio and array techniques inassessing the site effect and near surface velocity structure[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2009,52(6):1515-1525.
[20]Wald D J,Allen T I.Topographic slope as a proxy for seismicsite conditions and amplification[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,2007,97(5):1379-1395.
[21]谭黎中.强地面运动模拟-以1970年MS7.7通海大地震为例[D].北京:中国科学院研究生院.Tan Lizhong.Strong ground motion simulation in 1970in theMS7.7Tonghai earthquake as an example[D].Beijing:Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences.
[22]Boore D M,Atkinson G M.Boore-Atkinson NGA groundmotion relations for thr geometric mean horizontal componentof peak and spectral ground motion parameters[R].PEERReport 2007/01.Pacific Earthquake Engineering ResearchCenter,2007.
[23]Atkinson G M,Sonley E.Empirical relationships betweenmodified Mercalli intensity and response spectra[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,2000,90(2):537-544.
[24]Worden C B,Gerstenberger M C,Rhoades D A,et al.Probabilistic relationships between ground-motion parametersand modified Mercalli intensity in California[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,2012,102(1):204-221.
[25]Bakun W H,Aagaard B,Dost B,et al.Implications forprediction and hazard assessment from the 2004Parkfieldearthquake[J].Nature,2005,437(7061):969-974.
[26]王卫民,赵连锋,李娟,等.四川汶川8.0级地震震源过程[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(5):1403-1410.Wang W M,Zhao L F,Li J,et al.Rupture process of theMS8.0Wenchuan earthquake of Sichuan,China[J].ChineseJ.Geophys.(in Chinese),2008,51(5):1403-1410.
[27]郭慧,江娃利,谢新生.钻孔与探槽揭示1976年河北唐山MS7.8地震发震构造晚第四纪强震活动[J].中国科学:地球科学,41(7):1009-1028.Guo H,Jiang W L,Xie X S.Late-Quaternary strongearthquakes on the seismogenic fault of the 1976 MS7.8Tangshan earthquake,Hebei,as revealed by drilling andtrenching[J].Sci.China Earth Sci.,2011,54(11):1696-1715.
[28]Chen J,Caltech.Slip history the 2004(MW5.9)ParkfieldEarthquake(Single-Plane Model).http://www.tectonics.caltech.edu/slip_history/2004_ca/parkfield2.html[2012-06-13].
[29]http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/shakemap/nc/shake/51147892/[2012-06-13].
[30]http://db.cosmos-eq.org/scripts/event.plx?evt=941[2012-06-13].
[31]Sladen A,Caltech.Preliminary Result 05/12/2008(MW7.9),East.Sichuan.http://www.tectonics.caltech.edu/Sliphistory/2008_e_sichuan/e_sichuan.html[2012-06-13].
[32]http://www.eqsc.gov.cn/manage/fileupload/statichtml/admin/5.12-1year/photo/kekaopic.html[2012-06-3].
[33]http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/shakemap/global/shake/2008ryan/[2012-06-13].
[34]杜晨晓,谢富仁,张扬,等.1976年MS7.8唐山地震断层动态破裂及近断层强地面运动特征[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(2):290-304.Du C X,Xie F R,Zhang Y,et al.3Dmodeling of dynamicfault rupture and strong ground motion of the 1976Ms7.8Tangshan earthquake[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(inChinese),2010,53(2):290-304.
[2]Wald D J,Quitoriano V,Heaton T H,et al.TriNet“shakemaps”:rapid generation of peak ground motion and intensity maps forearthquakes in southern California[J].Earthquake Spectra,1999,15(3):537-555.
[3]陈会忠,侯燕燕,何加勇,等.日本地震预警系统日趋完善[J].国际地震动态,2011,(4):10-15.Chen H Z,Hou Y Y,He J Y,et al.The well development ofearthquake warning system of Japan[J].Recent Developmentsin World Seismology(in Chinese),2011,(4):10-15.
[4]张晁军,李卫东,李大辉,等.有关地震烈度速报信息化发展的思考[J].国际地震动态,2010,(4):23-31.Zhang C J,Li W D,Li D H,et al.Some thoughts concerningdevelopment of rapid report of seismic intensity information[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology(in Chinese),2010,(4):23-31.
[5]Convertito V,De Matteis R,Cantore L,eta l.Rapid estimation ofground-shaking maps for seismic emergency management in theCampania Region of southern Italy[J].Nat.hazards,2010,52(1):97-115.
[6]王海云.近场强地震动预测的有限断层震源模型[D].哈尔滨:中国地震局工程力学研究所.Wang H Y.Finite Fault Source Model for Predicting Near-field Strong Ground Motion(in Chinese)[D].HarbinInstitute of Engineering Mechanics China EarthquakeAdministration.
[7]孟令媛,史保平.应用动态复合震源模型模拟汶川MW7.9地震强地面运动[J].地球物理学报,2011,54(4):1010-1027.Meng L Y,Shi B P.Near-fault strong ground motionsimulation of the May 12,2008,MW7.9Wenchuan Earthquakeby dynamical composite source model[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2011,54(4):1010-1027.
[8]Hanks T C,McGuire R K.The character of high-frequencystrong ground motion[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,1981,71(6):2071-2095.
[9]Boore D M.Stochastic simulation of high-frequency groundmotions based on seismological models of the radiated spectra[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,1983,73(6A):1865-1894.
[10]Boore D M.Simulation of ground motion using the stochasticmethod[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,2003,160(3):635-676.
[11]Beresnev I A,Atkinson G M.Modeling finite-fault radiationfrom theωn spectrum[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,1997,87(1):67-84.
[12]郭志,高星,王卫民.2006年12月26日台湾南部滨海MS7.2级地震破裂过程研究[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(4):1103-1113.Guo Z,Gao X,Wang W M.Rupture process of southernTaiwan offshore MS7.2earthquake of Dec,12,2006[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2008,51(4):1103-1113.
[13]李娟,王卫民,赵连锋.2004年7月11日西藏MW6.2级地震震源破裂过程研究[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(4):843-850.Li J,Wang W M,Zhao L F,et al.Rupture process of theJuly 11,2004,Tibet(MW6.2)earthquake[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2005,48(4):843-850.
[14]Motazedian D,Atkinson G M.Dynamic corner frequency:anew concept in stochastic finite fault modeling[A].//Seismological Society of America Meeting[C].Victoria,2003.
[15]Motazedian D,Atkinson G M.Stochastic finite-fault modelingbased on a dynamic corner frequency[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,2005,95(3):995-1010.
[16]Atkinson G M,Boore D M.Ground-motion relations for easternNorth America[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,1995,85(1):17-30.
[17]王国新,史家平.随机有限断层法在汶川强地震动模拟中的应用[J].自然科学进展,2009,19(6):664-669.Wang Guoxin,Shi Ping.Application of the stochastic finitefault method in Wenchuan strong ground motion simulation(J).Progress in natural science,2009,19(6):664-669.
[18]陶夏新,王国新.近场强地震动模拟中对破裂的方向性效应和上盘效应的表达[J].地震学报,2003,25(2):191-198.Tao X X,Wang G X.Rupture directivity and hanging walleffect in near field strong ground motion simulation[J].ActaSeismologica Sinica(in Chinese),2003,25(2):191-198.
[19]王伟君,刘澜波,陈棋福,等.应用微动H/V谱比法和台阵技术探测场地响应和浅层速度结构[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(6):1515-1525.Wang W J,Liu LB,Chen Q F,et al.Applications ofmicrotremor H/V spectral ratio and array techniques inassessing the site effect and near surface velocity structure[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),2009,52(6):1515-1525.
[20]Wald D J,Allen T I.Topographic slope as a proxy for seismicsite conditions and amplification[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,2007,97(5):1379-1395.
[21]谭黎中.强地面运动模拟-以1970年MS7.7通海大地震为例[D].北京:中国科学院研究生院.Tan Lizhong.Strong ground motion simulation in 1970in theMS7.7Tonghai earthquake as an example[D].Beijing:Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences.
[22]Boore D M,Atkinson G M.Boore-Atkinson NGA groundmotion relations for thr geometric mean horizontal componentof peak and spectral ground motion parameters[R].PEERReport 2007/01.Pacific Earthquake Engineering ResearchCenter,2007.
[23]Atkinson G M,Sonley E.Empirical relationships betweenmodified Mercalli intensity and response spectra[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,2000,90(2):537-544.
[24]Worden C B,Gerstenberger M C,Rhoades D A,et al.Probabilistic relationships between ground-motion parametersand modified Mercalli intensity in California[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Amer.,2012,102(1):204-221.
[25]Bakun W H,Aagaard B,Dost B,et al.Implications forprediction and hazard assessment from the 2004Parkfieldearthquake[J].Nature,2005,437(7061):969-974.
[26]王卫民,赵连锋,李娟,等.四川汶川8.0级地震震源过程[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(5):1403-1410.Wang W M,Zhao L F,Li J,et al.Rupture process of theMS8.0Wenchuan earthquake of Sichuan,China[J].ChineseJ.Geophys.(in Chinese),2008,51(5):1403-1410.
[27]郭慧,江娃利,谢新生.钻孔与探槽揭示1976年河北唐山MS7.8地震发震构造晚第四纪强震活动[J].中国科学:地球科学,41(7):1009-1028.Guo H,Jiang W L,Xie X S.Late-Quaternary strongearthquakes on the seismogenic fault of the 1976 MS7.8Tangshan earthquake,Hebei,as revealed by drilling andtrenching[J].Sci.China Earth Sci.,2011,54(11):1696-1715.
[28]Chen J,Caltech.Slip history the 2004(MW5.9)ParkfieldEarthquake(Single-Plane Model).http://www.tectonics.caltech.edu/slip_history/2004_ca/parkfield2.html[2012-06-13].
[29]http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/shakemap/nc/shake/51147892/[2012-06-13].
[30]http://db.cosmos-eq.org/scripts/event.plx?evt=941[2012-06-13].
[31]Sladen A,Caltech.Preliminary Result 05/12/2008(MW7.9),East.Sichuan.http://www.tectonics.caltech.edu/Sliphistory/2008_e_sichuan/e_sichuan.html[2012-06-13].
[32]http://www.eqsc.gov.cn/manage/fileupload/statichtml/admin/5.12-1year/photo/kekaopic.html[2012-06-3].
[33]http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/shakemap/global/shake/2008ryan/[2012-06-13].
[34]杜晨晓,谢富仁,张扬,等.1976年MS7.8唐山地震断层动态破裂及近断层强地面运动特征[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(2):290-304.Du C X,Xie F R,Zhang Y,et al.3Dmodeling of dynamicfault rupture and strong ground motion of the 1976Ms7.8Tangshan earthquake[J].Chinese J.Geophys.(inChinese),2010,53(2):290-304.
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