卡里巴水库蓄水引起库区应力场变化影响分析
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摘要
水库地震是近几年国际上地震学和地球动力学领域研究的热点问题。作为世界上库容最大的卡里巴(Kariba)水库在其蓄水后库区地震活动性不断增加,并于1963年9月23日发生M6.1地震,是世界上公认发生过6级以上水库地震的四大水库之一。对该水库蓄水引起库区应力场变化进行量化估算,有助于对特大—大型水库蓄水后库区应力场变化及应力触发地震这一基础性科学问题的深入了解。本文分别应用解析解和数值解方法对卡里巴水库蓄水引起库区弹性应力场、不排水和排水孔隙压力变化进行了计算分析。结果表明,卡里巴水库蓄水引起M6.1地震震源处孔压变化为0.015～0.22 MPa,库仑应力变化约0.03～0.17 MPa,触发了此次地震的发生。
In recent years,reservoir induced earthquake(RIE)has drawn more and more attention in both the fields of seismology and computational geodynamics.Kariba reservoir is the world's largest reservoir by the volume of impoundment.After the impoundment of Kariba reservoir,there appeared seismicity around the reservoir region and an M6.1 earthquake happened in September 23,1963,which is recognized as one of the four RIEs greater than M6.0 around the global.Therefore,it is a good example for quantitative assessment of the stress field changes induced by the impoundment of the large reservoir and investigation of the magnitude of stress changes that can trigger reservoir seismic activities.Adopting analytical solution and finite element method,we first calculated simultaneously the changes of elastic stress and undrained pore pressure induced by water load.After that,the drained pore pressure after the impoundment,which varies with the respect of time,was also introduced.Our primary results reveal that reservoir impoundment increases pore pressure and coulomb stress changes at the hypocenter of this major event.The value of coulomb failure stress changes is around 0.03～0.17MPa and the pore pressure is about 0.015～0.22MPa.
In recent years,reservoir induced earthquake(RIE)has drawn more and more attention in both the fields of seismology and computational geodynamics.Kariba reservoir is the world's largest reservoir by the volume of impoundment.After the impoundment of Kariba reservoir,there appeared seismicity around the reservoir region and an M6.1 earthquake happened in September 23,1963,which is recognized as one of the four RIEs greater than M6.0 around the global.Therefore,it is a good example for quantitative assessment of the stress field changes induced by the impoundment of the large reservoir and investigation of the magnitude of stress changes that can trigger reservoir seismic activities.Adopting analytical solution and finite element method,we first calculated simultaneously the changes of elastic stress and undrained pore pressure induced by water load.After that,the drained pore pressure after the impoundment,which varies with the respect of time,was also introduced.Our primary results reveal that reservoir impoundment increases pore pressure and coulomb stress changes at the hypocenter of this major event.The value of coulomb failure stress changes is around 0.03～0.17MPa and the pore pressure is about 0.015～0.22MPa.
引文
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[2]胡毓良,陈献程.我国水库地震及相关成因问题的讨论[J].地震地质,1979,(1):45-57.
[3]雷兴林,马胜利,闻学泽.地表水体对断层应力与地震时空分布影响的综合分析——以紫坪铺水库为例[J].地震地质,2008,30(4):1 046-1 064.
[4]Ge S M,Liu M,Lu N,et al.Did the Zipingpu Reservoir trigger the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake?[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2009,36(L20315):1-5.
[5]陈颙.汶川地震并非由水库引起[J].科学世界,2009,39(3):257-259.
[6]Gahalaut K,Gahalaut V K.Effect of the Zipingpu reservoir impoundment on the occurrence of the2008Wenchuan earthquake and local seismicity[J].Geophysical Journal International,2010,183(1):277-285.
[7]Lei X L.Possible roles of the Zipingpu Reservoir in triggering the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake[J].Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2010,40(4):844-854.
[8]张贝,石耀霖.紫坪铺水库对附近断层稳定性影响的探讨[J].中国国科学院研究生院报,2010,27(3):755-762.
[9]周斌,薛世峰,邓志辉.水库诱发地震时空演化与库水加卸载及渗透过程的关系——以紫坪铺水库为例[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(11):2 651-2 670.
[10]程惠红.水库对构造活动的影响及作用机理研究[D].北京:中国科学院研究生院,2012.
[11]孙玉军,张怀,董树文,等.利用三维孔隙弹性模型探讨紫坪铺水库对汶川地震的影响[J].地球物理学报,2012,55(7):2 353-2 361.
[12]Gough D I,Gough W L.Stress and deflection in the lithosphere near Lake Kariba-II[J].GeophysJRoyAstron Soc,1970,21(1):70-101.
[13]Magadza C H D.learnedKariba Reservoir:Experience and lessons learned[J].Lakes&Reservoirs:Research and Management,2006,11(4):271-286.
[14]Gough D I,Gough W I.Time dependence and trigger mechanisms for the Kariba(Rhodesia)earth-quakes[J].Engineering Geology,1976,10(2):211-217.
[15]武汉地震研究所.卡里巴水库地震[J].地震,1981,1(4):33-35.
[16]魏柏林,薛佳谋.世界四大水库诱发地震例的发震原因[J].华南地震,1986,6(01):103-115.
[17]Mao Y,Ai Y,LI Z,et al.Study of reservoir-induced seismicity[M].Beijing Seismological Press.2008.
[18]Pavlin G B,Langston C A.Source parameter inversion of a reservoir-induced seismic sequence:LakeKariba,Africa(1963September)[J].Geophys J R astr Soc,1983,74(3):819-841.
[19]吴家龙.弹性力学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2001.
[20]Gough D J,Gough W L.Load-induced Earthquakes at Lake Kariba[J].Geophys J Roy Astr Soc,1970,21:79-101.
[21]Talwani P,Acree S.Pore press diffusion and the mechanism of reservoir-induced seismicity[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,1984,122(6):947-965.
[22]Talwani P.On the Nature of Reservoir-induced Seismicity[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,1997,150:473-492.
[23]Chen P,Wang J D.Wavelet estimation of the diffusion coeffcient in time dependent diffusion models[J].Science in China Series A:Mathematics,2007,50(11):1 597-1 610.
[24]Talwani P,Chen L,Gahalaut K.Seismogenic permeability,ks[J].J Geophys Res,2007,112(B07309):1-18.
[25]陈颙,黄庭芳,刘恩儒.岩石物理学[M].合肥:中国科学技术大学出版社,2009.
[26]Wang C Y,Manga M.Earthquakes and Water[M].New York:Springer Heidelverg DordrechtLondon,2010.
[27]Roeloffs E A.Fault Stability Changes Induced Beneath a Reservoir With Cyclic Variations in WaterLevel[J].J Geophys Res,1988,93(B3):2 107-2 124.
[28]Bell L,Nur A.Strength changes due to reservoir-induced pore pressure and stresses and applicationto kake Oroville[J].J Geophysics Res,1978,83(B9):4 469-4 483.
[29]沈立英,常宝琦,吴名彬.弹性多孔介质中应力-孔隙压耦联理论在新丰江地震研究中的应用[J].中国地震,1992,8(3):36-43.
[30]石耀霖,曹建玲.库仑应力计算及应用过程中若干问题的讨论——以汶川地震为例[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(1):102-110.
[31]King G C P,Stein R S,Lin J P.Static stress changes and the trgering of earthquake[J].Bull SeismSoc Am,1994,84(3):935-953.
[32]程惠红,张怀,朱伯靖,等.新丰江水库触发地震的孔隙弹性耦合有限元模拟[J].中国科学:地球科学,2012,42(6):905-916.
[2]胡毓良,陈献程.我国水库地震及相关成因问题的讨论[J].地震地质,1979,(1):45-57.
[3]雷兴林,马胜利,闻学泽.地表水体对断层应力与地震时空分布影响的综合分析——以紫坪铺水库为例[J].地震地质,2008,30(4):1 046-1 064.
[4]Ge S M,Liu M,Lu N,et al.Did the Zipingpu Reservoir trigger the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake?[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2009,36(L20315):1-5.
[5]陈颙.汶川地震并非由水库引起[J].科学世界,2009,39(3):257-259.
[6]Gahalaut K,Gahalaut V K.Effect of the Zipingpu reservoir impoundment on the occurrence of the2008Wenchuan earthquake and local seismicity[J].Geophysical Journal International,2010,183(1):277-285.
[7]Lei X L.Possible roles of the Zipingpu Reservoir in triggering the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake[J].Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,2010,40(4):844-854.
[8]张贝,石耀霖.紫坪铺水库对附近断层稳定性影响的探讨[J].中国国科学院研究生院报,2010,27(3):755-762.
[9]周斌,薛世峰,邓志辉.水库诱发地震时空演化与库水加卸载及渗透过程的关系——以紫坪铺水库为例[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(11):2 651-2 670.
[10]程惠红.水库对构造活动的影响及作用机理研究[D].北京:中国科学院研究生院,2012.
[11]孙玉军,张怀,董树文,等.利用三维孔隙弹性模型探讨紫坪铺水库对汶川地震的影响[J].地球物理学报,2012,55(7):2 353-2 361.
[12]Gough D I,Gough W L.Stress and deflection in the lithosphere near Lake Kariba-II[J].GeophysJRoyAstron Soc,1970,21(1):70-101.
[13]Magadza C H D.learnedKariba Reservoir:Experience and lessons learned[J].Lakes&Reservoirs:Research and Management,2006,11(4):271-286.
[14]Gough D I,Gough W I.Time dependence and trigger mechanisms for the Kariba(Rhodesia)earth-quakes[J].Engineering Geology,1976,10(2):211-217.
[15]武汉地震研究所.卡里巴水库地震[J].地震,1981,1(4):33-35.
[16]魏柏林,薛佳谋.世界四大水库诱发地震例的发震原因[J].华南地震,1986,6(01):103-115.
[17]Mao Y,Ai Y,LI Z,et al.Study of reservoir-induced seismicity[M].Beijing Seismological Press.2008.
[18]Pavlin G B,Langston C A.Source parameter inversion of a reservoir-induced seismic sequence:LakeKariba,Africa(1963September)[J].Geophys J R astr Soc,1983,74(3):819-841.
[19]吴家龙.弹性力学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2001.
[20]Gough D J,Gough W L.Load-induced Earthquakes at Lake Kariba[J].Geophys J Roy Astr Soc,1970,21:79-101.
[21]Talwani P,Acree S.Pore press diffusion and the mechanism of reservoir-induced seismicity[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,1984,122(6):947-965.
[22]Talwani P.On the Nature of Reservoir-induced Seismicity[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,1997,150:473-492.
[23]Chen P,Wang J D.Wavelet estimation of the diffusion coeffcient in time dependent diffusion models[J].Science in China Series A:Mathematics,2007,50(11):1 597-1 610.
[24]Talwani P,Chen L,Gahalaut K.Seismogenic permeability,ks[J].J Geophys Res,2007,112(B07309):1-18.
[25]陈颙,黄庭芳,刘恩儒.岩石物理学[M].合肥:中国科学技术大学出版社,2009.
[26]Wang C Y,Manga M.Earthquakes and Water[M].New York:Springer Heidelverg DordrechtLondon,2010.
[27]Roeloffs E A.Fault Stability Changes Induced Beneath a Reservoir With Cyclic Variations in WaterLevel[J].J Geophys Res,1988,93(B3):2 107-2 124.
[28]Bell L,Nur A.Strength changes due to reservoir-induced pore pressure and stresses and applicationto kake Oroville[J].J Geophysics Res,1978,83(B9):4 469-4 483.
[29]沈立英,常宝琦,吴名彬.弹性多孔介质中应力-孔隙压耦联理论在新丰江地震研究中的应用[J].中国地震,1992,8(3):36-43.
[30]石耀霖,曹建玲.库仑应力计算及应用过程中若干问题的讨论——以汶川地震为例[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(1):102-110.
[31]King G C P,Stein R S,Lin J P.Static stress changes and the trgering of earthquake[J].Bull SeismSoc Am,1994,84(3):935-953.
[32]程惠红,张怀,朱伯靖,等.新丰江水库触发地震的孔隙弹性耦合有限元模拟[J].中国科学:地球科学,2012,42(6):905-916.
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