RTL时间扫描方法在福建及近海地区的回顾检验
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摘要
"区域—时间—长度算法"是一种检测地震活动水平相对变化的计算方法,利用该算法对福建及邻近海域近年来4次M_D 5.0以上地震进行回顾性检验。结果认为,每个震例的研究起始时间要根据每个地震的V_(RTL)背景活动水平来定,震前4个震例的均方差都超过3.5σ,3个震例的V_(RTL)极大值超过150,一个只有21.6。说明该地区M_D 5.0以上地震前,V_(RTL)活动水平相对于背景活动水平有明显变化,V_(RTL)可作为该地区地震预报的一项指标。
Region-time-length algorithm(RTL) is a computation method for detecting relative change of earthquake activity level.Using this method,four earthquakes(M_D≥5.0) that occurred in Fujian and its offshore area for the past few years have been tested retrospective in this paper.The result shows that,research starting time of every earthquake is determined by its V_(RTL) background activity level,respectively.The mean square errors of the four earthquakes have all passed 3.5 a before shock.The V_(RTL) maximum values of three earthquakes have passed 150,and one has 21.6 only.This illustrates that V_(RTL) activity level have all marked variation relative to background activity level before M_D 5.0 earthquakes in this area.V_(RTL)may be a index of earthquake prediction in this area.
Region-time-length algorithm(RTL) is a computation method for detecting relative change of earthquake activity level.Using this method,four earthquakes(M_D≥5.0) that occurred in Fujian and its offshore area for the past few years have been tested retrospective in this paper.The result shows that,research starting time of every earthquake is determined by its V_(RTL) background activity level,respectively.The mean square errors of the four earthquakes have all passed 3.5 a before shock.The V_(RTL) maximum values of three earthquakes have passed 150,and one has 21.6 only.This illustrates that V_(RTL) activity level have all marked variation relative to background activity level before M_D 5.0 earthquakes in this area.V_(RTL)may be a index of earthquake prediction in this area.
引文
蒋海昆,侯海峰,周焕鹏,等.“区域—时间—长度算法”及其在华北中强地震中短期前兆特征研究中的应用[J].地震学报,2004,26(2):151-161.
刘虹,苏有锦.区域—时间—长度算法在云南地区的应用研究[J].地震研究,2006,29(1):25~29.
刘永振,曹凤娟.应用RTL算法对岫岩Ms 5.4地震的回顾性预测[J].东北地震研究,2008,24(1):39-43.
张双凤,孙晴,于伟,等.RTL时间扫描方法在冀鲁豫交界地区的应用研究[J].国际地震动态,2006,335(11):7-14.
Mjachkin V I,Brace W F,Sobolev G A,et al.Two models for earth Cuake fore runners[J].Pure Appl Geophys,1975,113:169-181.
Sobolev G A,Tyupkin Y S.Low-seismicity precursors of large earthquakes in Kamchatka[J].Volcano Seism,1997,18:433-446.
Sobolev G A,Tyupkin Y S.Precursory phases seismicity precursors,and earthquake prediction in Kamchatka[J].Volcano Seism,1999,20:615-627.
刘虹,苏有锦.区域—时间—长度算法在云南地区的应用研究[J].地震研究,2006,29(1):25~29.
刘永振,曹凤娟.应用RTL算法对岫岩Ms 5.4地震的回顾性预测[J].东北地震研究,2008,24(1):39-43.
张双凤,孙晴,于伟,等.RTL时间扫描方法在冀鲁豫交界地区的应用研究[J].国际地震动态,2006,335(11):7-14.
Mjachkin V I,Brace W F,Sobolev G A,et al.Two models for earth Cuake fore runners[J].Pure Appl Geophys,1975,113:169-181.
Sobolev G A,Tyupkin Y S.Low-seismicity precursors of large earthquakes in Kamchatka[J].Volcano Seism,1997,18:433-446.
Sobolev G A,Tyupkin Y S.Precursory phases seismicity precursors,and earthquake prediction in Kamchatka[J].Volcano Seism,1999,20:615-627.
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