对流层大气温度“蝴蝶形”震前异常
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摘要
利用美国国家和海洋大气管理局(NOAA)的大气温度数据,分析陆地地震和海洋地震震前震中上空的大气温度变化,研究其作为地震短临前兆的可能性.地震样本包括2014年2月12日于田Ms7.3地震、2008年5月12日汶川Ms8.0地震、2011年3月11日日本Ms9.0地震、2014年4月1日智利Ms8.1海洋地震、2013年3月27日台湾南投县Ms6.1地震和2014年5月30日云南盈江Ms6.1地震.结果表明:(1)震前,震中位置300~1 000hPa大气温度有较为一致的变化趋势;(2)200hPa与400hPa处(根据不同地点可选择其他,诸如350hPa、300hPa等高度数据)温度折线图在震前趋近或者相交,出现类似蝴蝶翅膀的"蝴蝶形"特殊曲线形状;(3)200hPa与400hPa温度差等值线图在(震前数月、数周或数天不等)震中附近区域的数值减小,温度差等值线图的塌陷最低点对应震中位置.以上规律有望应用于地震短临预测的时间与震中的确定.
Air temperature variation over the epicenter before terrestrial and marine earthquakes is analyzed and its possibility being applied in short-term and impending earthquake prediction is examined.The data obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA)in different height scales with hPa unit are analyzed.Earthquake samples include the earthquakes in Yutian(Ms7.3,February 12 th,2014),Wenchuan(Ms8.0,May 12 th,2008),Japan(Ms9.0,March 11 th,2011),Chile marine earthquake(Ms8.0,April 1st,2014),(Nantou Ms6.1,March 27 th,2013),and Yingjiang(Ms6.1,May 30 th,2014).The results show:(1)atmospheric temperature has more consistent trends at 300-1 000 hPa in the epicenter before earthquake;(2)the line charts of200 hPa and 400 hPa temperature exhibit a graph with approaching and intersection(we can choose other height data such as 350 hPa,300hPa,etc.according to various locations)approaching earthquake occurring time.This special curve shape is similar to butterfly wings and be called as"butterfly pattern";(3)the values of the air temperature difference between 200 hPa and 400 hPa are reduced in contour map near the epicenter area(a few months,weeks or several days before the earthquake).The lowest point of collapse in the contour map of air temperature difference corresponds to epicenter.The regularity is expected to be applied to predict on time and epi-center in short-term and impending earthquake.
Air temperature variation over the epicenter before terrestrial and marine earthquakes is analyzed and its possibility being applied in short-term and impending earthquake prediction is examined.The data obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA)in different height scales with hPa unit are analyzed.Earthquake samples include the earthquakes in Yutian(Ms7.3,February 12 th,2014),Wenchuan(Ms8.0,May 12 th,2008),Japan(Ms9.0,March 11 th,2011),Chile marine earthquake(Ms8.0,April 1st,2014),(Nantou Ms6.1,March 27 th,2013),and Yingjiang(Ms6.1,May 30 th,2014).The results show:(1)atmospheric temperature has more consistent trends at 300-1 000 hPa in the epicenter before earthquake;(2)the line charts of200 hPa and 400 hPa temperature exhibit a graph with approaching and intersection(we can choose other height data such as 350 hPa,300hPa,etc.according to various locations)approaching earthquake occurring time.This special curve shape is similar to butterfly wings and be called as"butterfly pattern";(3)the values of the air temperature difference between 200 hPa and 400 hPa are reduced in contour map near the epicenter area(a few months,weeks or several days before the earthquake).The lowest point of collapse in the contour map of air temperature difference corresponds to epicenter.The regularity is expected to be applied to predict on time and epi-center in short-term and impending earthquake.
引文
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Dey,S.,Singh,R.,2003.Surface Latent Heat Flux as anEarthquake Precursor.Natural Hazards and EarthSystem Science,3(6):749-755.doi:10.5194/nhess-3-749-2003
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Geng,N.G.,Cui,C.Y.,Deng,M.D.,1992.The Beginning ofRock Fracture Experiment of Remote Sensing Observation and Remote Sensing Rock Mechanics.Acta Seismologica Sinica,14(Suppl.):645-652(in Chinese).
Geng,N.G.,Yu,P.,Deng,M.D.,et al.,1998.The SimulatedExperimental Studies on Cause of Thermal InfraredPrecursor of Earthquakes.Earthquake,18(1):83-88(in Chinese with English abstract).
Guo,Z.Q.,2003.Using NOAA Data to Detect theEarthquakes Thermal Infrared Radiation Precursory:Its Problems and Applied Methods.In:Mezel,W.P.,ed.,SPIE Int Optical Engineering,Belingham,177-181.
Habibeh,V.A.,Farid,H.A.,Shattri,M.,2013.Latent HeatFlux and Air Temperature Anomalies along an ActiveFault Zone Associated with Recent Iran Earthquakes.Advances in Space Research,52(9):1678-1687.doi:10.1016/j.asr.2013.08.002
Italiano,F.,dAlessandro,W.,Martelli,M.,2007.Gas Geochemistry as a Tool to Investigate the Earths Degassing through Volcanic and Seismic Areas:The Soul ofthe 8th International Conference on Gas Geochemistry.Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research,65(1-2):1-4.doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.05.001
Jing,F.,Shen,X.H.,Kang,C.L.,2013.Research of Gas System on Multi-Parameter Variation and Anomaly Modelof Earthquake Thermal Infrared in SeismogenicProcess.In:Earth Observation from Space ProfessionalCommittee of Seismological Society of China,ed.,EarthObservation from Space Professional Committee ofSeismological Society of China 2013Symposium Proceedings.Earth Observation from Space ProfessionalCommittee of Seismological Society of China,Beijing,31(in Chinese).
Kang,C.L.,Chen,Z.W.,Chen,L.Z.,et al.,2003.Analysis onthe Satellite Infrared Anomaly Feature before West toKunlun Mountain Pass M8.1Earthquake.NorthwesternSeismological Journal,25(1):12-15(in Chinese withEnglish abstract).
Kashkin,V.B.,2014.Internal Gravity Waves in the Troposphere.Atmospheric and Oceanic Optics,27(1):1-9.doi:10.1134/S1024856014010059
Li,M.,Kang,C.L.,Li,Z.X.,et al.,2010.Abnormal SurfaceLatent Heat Flux Prior to the Wenchuan Ms8.0Earthquake.Earthquake,30(3):64-71(in Chinese withEnglish abstract).
Li,Y.,Ma,L.,Qiang,Z.J.,2001.Unusual Temperature andEarthquake.Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science),37(4):427-430(in Chinese withEnglish abstract).
Liu,D.F.,Luo,Z.L.,Peng,K.Y.,1997.OLR Anomalous Phenomena before Strong Earthquakes.Earthquake,17(2):126-132(in Chinese with English abstract).
Liu,D.F.,Peng,K.Y.,Liu,W.H.,et al,1999.Thermal Omensbefore Earthquake.Acta Seismologica Sinica,21(6):652-656(in Chinese).
Lü,Q.Q.,Ding,J.H.,Cui,C.Y.,et al.,1998.Satellite ThermalInfrared Anomaly before the Zhangbei EarthquakeMs=6.2.Earthquake,18(3):240-244(in Chinesewith English abstract).
Ma,J.,Shan,X.J.,2000.An Attempt to Study Fault ActivityUsing Remote Sensing Technology—A Case of theMani Earthquake.Seismology and Geology,22(3):210-215(in Chinese with English abstract).
Qiang,Z.J.,Du,L.T.,2001.Earth Degassing,Forest Fire andSeismic Activities.Earth Science Frontiers,8(1):235-245(in Chinese with English abstract).
Qiang,Z.J.,Lin,C.G.,Li,L.Z.,et al.,1998.Satellite ThermalInfrared Image Brightness Temperature Anomaly:Short-Term and Impending Earthquake Precursor.Science in China(Ser.D),28(6):564-573(in Chinese).
Qin,K.,Wu,L.X.,Ma,W.Y.,2010.Spatial-Temporal Features of Abnormal Surface Latent Heat Flux before theQinghai Haixi Earthquake Sequence in 2009.Science&Technology Review,28(4):68-73(in Chinese withEnglish abstract).
Qin,S.T.,Sun,H.B.,2003.Analysis on Satellite InfraredLong Wave Radiation OLD before Delingha Earthquakewith Ms6.6.Earthquake Research in Plateau,15(3):42-44,51(in Chinese with English abstract).
Qu,C.Y.,Ma,J.,Shan,X.J.,2004.An Attempt to ObserveGas Releasing Phenomena of the Earth by Using Satellite Thermal Infrared Technique.Seismology and Geology,26(3):539-547(in Chinese with English abstract).
Qu,C.Y.,Shan,X.J.,Ma,J.,2007.Influence Factors to Seismic Thermal Infrared Anomaly.Journal of Seismological Research,30(2):113-119(in Chinese with English abstract).
Tao,M.X.,Xu,Y.C.,Shi,B.G.,et al.,2005.Mantle Degassingand Deep Geological Tectonic Features of Chinese Different Types of Fracture Zone.Science in China(Ser.D),35(5):441-451(in Chinese).
Wang,J.,Zhang,X.,Pan,L.L.,et al.,2013.Anomalies ofTemperature Increase and Methane Release beforeLushan Earthquake(Ms7.0).Earth Science Frontiers,20(6):29-35(in Chinese with English abstract).
Wang,W.G.,Liu,X.L.,Wang,H.Y.,et al.,2008.The Variation Character of Global Atmospheric Heat Budget atTropopause.Journal of Yunnan University,30(2):155-165(in Chinese with English abstract).
Wei,C.X.,Zhang,Y.S.,Guo,X.,et al.,2013.Thermal Infrared and Long-Wave Radiation Anomalies of YushuMs7.1Earthquake.Progress in Geophysics,28(5):2444-2452(in Chinese with English abstract).
Xu,X.D.,Xu,X.M.,Ma,S.D.,et al.,1995.A Preliminary Understanding of Earthquake Genesis of Abnormal Temperature Rising of the Atmosphere before ImpendingEarthquake.Acta Seismologica Sinica,17(1):123-127(in Chinese).
Yao,Q.L.,Qiang,Z.J.,Wang,Y.P.,2005.CO Release fromthe Tibetan Plateau before Earthquakes and IncreasingTemperature Anomaly Showing in Thermal InfraredImages of Satellite.Advances in Earth Science,20(5):505-510(in Chinese with English abstract).
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