以菏泽地震为例探讨地震学综合预测方法
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摘要
在前人提出的地震预测方法基础上提出一种地震学综合预测方法。首先利用动态图像方法(地震条带与地震空区)大致确定潜在地震危险区;然后利用中、强地震产生的库仑应力确定孕震区;最后利用地震矩快速释放模型和相关长度增长模型判断孕震区是否进入短临状态。在地震三要素预测中,发挥地震学典型预测方法的优势,并且对相关性较小的预测方法的预测结论相互对比、印证,以便得出更可靠的预测结果。文中还利用这种综合预测方法对1983年菏泽5.9级做了简略研究,结果表明这种综合预测方法的预测结果和菏泽地震基本上是一致的。
Based on the previous earthquake prediction methods,we put forward a synthetical method of earthquake prediction.First,the dynamic image(including seismogenic gap and seismogenic belt) is used to confirm potential seismic dangerous zone approximately.Then a certain seismogenic zone is determined using coulomb stress infered from moderately strong earthquakes.Finally,ARM model and growing correlation length model are applied to judge whether the seismogenic zone is changed into critical state or not.In forecasting seismic three facts,the particular advantages of typical seismographic forecasting methods is exploited;in order to gain more credible forecasting result,the small correlated method has been intercompared and verified.This article studied Heze 5.9 earthquake,happened in 1983,using this synthetical method.The result shows that the forecasting result observed synthetical method is basically consistent to Heze earthquake.
Based on the previous earthquake prediction methods,we put forward a synthetical method of earthquake prediction.First,the dynamic image(including seismogenic gap and seismogenic belt) is used to confirm potential seismic dangerous zone approximately.Then a certain seismogenic zone is determined using coulomb stress infered from moderately strong earthquakes.Finally,ARM model and growing correlation length model are applied to judge whether the seismogenic zone is changed into critical state or not.In forecasting seismic three facts,the particular advantages of typical seismographic forecasting methods is exploited;in order to gain more credible forecasting result,the small correlated method has been intercompared and verified.This article studied Heze 5.9 earthquake,happened in 1983,using this synthetical method.The result shows that the forecasting result observed synthetical method is basically consistent to Heze earthquake.
引文
[1]王炜,黄冰树,陆远忠,等.孕震空区方法在地震预报中的应用及其效能研究[A].地震预报方法使用研究文集,地震学专辑[C].北京:学术书刊出版社,1989.
[2]Stein R S,Barka A A,Dieterich.Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 byearthquake stress triggering[J].Geophys J Int,1997,128:594-604.
[3]Nalbant S S,Hubert A,King G C P.Stress coupling between earhquakes in northwest Turkey andthe north Aegean Sea[J].J Geophys Res,1998,103:24 469-24 486.
[4]陆远忠,沈建文,宋俊高.孕震空区与逼近地震[J].地震学报,1982,4(4):327-336.
[5]陆远忠,王炜,沈建文.孕育空区与逼近地震(续)[J].地震学报,1983,5(2):129-144.
[6]陆远忠,陈章立,王碧泉,等.地震预报的地震学方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1985.
[7]陆远忠,吴云,王炜,等.地震中短期预报的动态图像方法[M].北京:地震出版社,2001.
[8]刘蒲雄,陈章立.地震条带及其在地震预报中的应用—孕震空区方法在地震预报中的应用及其效能研究[A].地震预报方法使用研究文集,地震学专辑[C].北京:学术书刊出版社,1989.
[9]Bowrman D D,Ouillon G,Sammls C G,et al.An obersvational test of the critical earthquake con-cept[J].J Geopbys Res,1989,103:2 435-2 437.
[10]Bufe C G,Varnes D J.Predictive modelling of the seismic cycle of the greater SanFrancisco Bay re-gion[J].J Geophys Res,1993,98:9 87l-9 883.
[11]杨文政,马丽.地震活动加速模型及其在中国的应用[J].地震学报,1999,21(1):32-40.
[12]杨文政,D Vere-Jones,马丽,等.一个关于临界地震的临界区域判别的方法[J].地震,2000,20(4):28-37.
[13]蒋长胜,吴忠良,史勇军.中强震前地震活动矩释放加速向现象(AMR)[J].中国地震,2004,20(2):119-125.
[14]Zoller G,Hainzl S,Kurths J.Observation of growing correlation length as an indicator for criticalpoint behavior prior to large earthquakes[J].J Geophys Res,2001,106(2):2 167-2 175.
[15]荣代潞,李亚荣,刘旭宙.甘肃及邻近地区几次中强地震前地震空间相关长度增长的研究[J].地震学报,2004,26(5):509-515.
[16]曾炬,罗兰格,侯建明.1982年11月9日河北省隆尧5.8级地震[A].张肇诚主编.中国震例[C].北京:地震出版社,1989.
[17]卢守安.1983年11月7日山东省菏泽5.9级地震[A].张肇诚主编.中国震例[C].北京:地震出版社,1989.
[18]宇津德治.地震事典[M].李裕彻,卢振业,丁鉴海,等译.北京:地震出版社,1990.
[2]Stein R S,Barka A A,Dieterich.Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 byearthquake stress triggering[J].Geophys J Int,1997,128:594-604.
[3]Nalbant S S,Hubert A,King G C P.Stress coupling between earhquakes in northwest Turkey andthe north Aegean Sea[J].J Geophys Res,1998,103:24 469-24 486.
[4]陆远忠,沈建文,宋俊高.孕震空区与逼近地震[J].地震学报,1982,4(4):327-336.
[5]陆远忠,王炜,沈建文.孕育空区与逼近地震(续)[J].地震学报,1983,5(2):129-144.
[6]陆远忠,陈章立,王碧泉,等.地震预报的地震学方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1985.
[7]陆远忠,吴云,王炜,等.地震中短期预报的动态图像方法[M].北京:地震出版社,2001.
[8]刘蒲雄,陈章立.地震条带及其在地震预报中的应用—孕震空区方法在地震预报中的应用及其效能研究[A].地震预报方法使用研究文集,地震学专辑[C].北京:学术书刊出版社,1989.
[9]Bowrman D D,Ouillon G,Sammls C G,et al.An obersvational test of the critical earthquake con-cept[J].J Geopbys Res,1989,103:2 435-2 437.
[10]Bufe C G,Varnes D J.Predictive modelling of the seismic cycle of the greater SanFrancisco Bay re-gion[J].J Geophys Res,1993,98:9 87l-9 883.
[11]杨文政,马丽.地震活动加速模型及其在中国的应用[J].地震学报,1999,21(1):32-40.
[12]杨文政,D Vere-Jones,马丽,等.一个关于临界地震的临界区域判别的方法[J].地震,2000,20(4):28-37.
[13]蒋长胜,吴忠良,史勇军.中强震前地震活动矩释放加速向现象(AMR)[J].中国地震,2004,20(2):119-125.
[14]Zoller G,Hainzl S,Kurths J.Observation of growing correlation length as an indicator for criticalpoint behavior prior to large earthquakes[J].J Geophys Res,2001,106(2):2 167-2 175.
[15]荣代潞,李亚荣,刘旭宙.甘肃及邻近地区几次中强地震前地震空间相关长度增长的研究[J].地震学报,2004,26(5):509-515.
[16]曾炬,罗兰格,侯建明.1982年11月9日河北省隆尧5.8级地震[A].张肇诚主编.中国震例[C].北京:地震出版社,1989.
[17]卢守安.1983年11月7日山东省菏泽5.9级地震[A].张肇诚主编.中国震例[C].北京:地震出版社,1989.
[18]宇津德治.地震事典[M].李裕彻,卢振业,丁鉴海,等译.北京:地震出版社,1990.
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