评“紫坪铺水库造成孔隙弹性耦合变化及其对2008年汶川地震触发作用”二维模拟的局限性
详细信息 本馆镜像全文    |  推荐本文 | | 获取馆网全文
摘要
2014年10月《地球物理学报》出版的陶玮等(2014)"紫坪铺水库造成孔隙弹性耦合变化及其对2008年汶川地震触发作用"一文基于完全耦合孔隙弹性理论,采用二维有限单元法模拟了紫坪铺水库蓄水造成的库区应力场和孔隙压力场的变化.该文模拟计算原则和思路是正确的,但仍然采用二维模型是一个不足.真实三维模型中水库是有限的一定面积内的载荷;而二维计算模型,却把水库载荷作为无限长的带状载荷,夸大了水库的作用.如果考虑三维模型,该研究得到的震源处库仑应力增长2~25kPa的结论可能只能解读为0.7~8.0kPa.对于紫坪铺水库是否对汶川地震有触发作用,目前各个研究组估计的库仑应力变化恰好处在是否可以触发的边缘.取得进一步认识的关键有赖于对地下结构、状态和物性认识的突破性进展.
The paper titled "Triggering effect of the Zipingpu Reservoir on the 2008 Mw7.9Wenchuan,China,Earthquake due to poroelastic coupling"by Tao et al.(2014),simulated the evolution of the pore pressure and stress changes due to the impoundment of Zipingpu reservoir using 2Dfinite element method,which is based on the fully coupled poroelastic theory.It is deficient to use 2D model,even though the principle and idea is correct.Actually,the load of reservoir is located within a certain area in 3D model.While,the 2D model means taking infinite linear loads instead of surface load,which may exaggerate the loading effect of reservoir.Whenconsidering the 3D,the result of the change of Coulomb failure stress of the hypocenter may be0.7~8.0kPa instead of the 2~25kPa.Now,as for whether the Zipingpu Reservoir trigger the occurrence of Wenchuan Earthquake,the value of the Coulomb failure stress change calculated by each research group is just still on the edge of triggering.The keys to achieve further understanding depends on the more information of structure,state,and physical properties of the crust.
引文
Chen H Q,Xu Z P,Lee M.2008.Wenchuan earthquake and seismicsafety of large dams.Journal of Hydraulic Engineering(inChinese),39(10):1158-1167.
    Chen Y.2009.Did the reservoir impoundment trigger the Wenchuanearthquake?Science in China Series D:Earth Sciences,52(4):431-433.
    Cheng H H,Zhang H,Shi Y L.2015.Comprehensive understandingof the Zipingpu reservoir to the MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),58(4):1220-1235,doi:10.6038/cjg20150411.
    Chester F M,Higgs N G.1992.Multimechanism frictionconstitutive model for ultrafine quartz gouge at hypocentralconditions.J.Geophys.Res.,97(B2):1859-1870.
    Deng K,Zhou S Y,Wang R,et al.2010.Evidence that the 2008Mw7.9 Wenhuan Earthquake Could Not Have Been Inducedby the Zipingpu Reservoir.Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.,100(5B):2805-2814.
    Gahalaut K,Gahalaut V K.2010.Effect of the Zipingpu reservoirimpoundment on the occurrence of the 2008 Wenchuanearthquake and local seismicity.Geophysical Journal International,183(1):277-285.
    Ge S M,Liu M,Lu N,et al.2009.Did the Zipingpu reservoirtrigger the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake?Geophysical ResearchLetters,36:L20315,doi:10.1029/2009GL040349.
    He C R,Wang Z L,Yao W M.2007.Frictional sliding of gabbrogouge under hydrothermal conditions.Tectonophysics,445(3-4):353-362.
    Kerr R A,Stone R.2009.A human trigger for the great quake ofSichuan?Science,323(5912):322.
    Kerr R A,Stone R.2010.Two years later,new rumblings overorigins of Sichuan Quake.Science,327(5970):1184.
    Lei X L,Ma S L,Wen X Z,et al.2008.Integrated analysis ofstress and regional seismicity by surface loading—A case studyof Zipingpu reservoir.Seismology and Geology(in Chinese),30(4):1046-1064.
    Lei X L.2010.Possible roles of the Zipingpu Reservoir in triggeringthe 2008Wenchuan earthquake.Journal of Asian Earth Sciences,40(4):844-854.
    Sun Y J,Zhang H,Dong S W,et al.2012.Study on effect of theZipingpu reservoir on the occurrence of the 2008 Wenchuanearthquake based on a 3D-poroelastic model.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),55(7):2353-2361,doi:10.6038/j.issn.0001-5733.2012.07.020.
    Tao W,Masterlark T,Shen Z K,et al.2014.Triggering effect ofthe Zipingpu Reservoir on the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan,China,Earthquake due to poroelastic coupling.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),57(10):3318-3331.
    Zheng L,Zhang H,Sun Y J,et al.2013.Comparison of 2Dand 3Dfinite element simulations in the reasearch of reservoir inducedearthquakes.Earthquake(in Chinese),33(4):162-170.
    Zhou B,Xue S F,Deng Z H,et al.2010.Relationship between theevolution of reservoir-induced seismicity in space-time and theprocess of reservoir water body load-unloading and waterinfiltration—A case study of Zipingpu reservoir.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),53(11):2651-2670,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2010.11.013.
    陈厚群,徐泽平,李敏.2008.汶川大地震和大坝抗震安全.水文利学报,39(10):1158-1167.
    陈颙.2009.汶川地震是由水库蓄水引起的吗?中国科学D,39(3):257-259.
    程惠红,张怀,石耀霖.2015.关于紫坪铺水库蓄水是否与汶川地震有关的影响因素综合分析.地球物理学报,58(4):1220-1235,doi:10.6038/cjg20150411.
    雷兴林,马胜利,闻学泽等.2008.地表水体对断层应力与地震时空分布影响的综合分析———以紫坪铺水库为例.地震地质,30(4):1046-1064.
    孙玉军,张怀,董树文等.2012.利用三维孔隙弹性模型探讨紫坪铺水库对汶川地震的影响.地球物理学报,55(7):2353-2361,doi:10.6038/j.issn.0001-5733.2012.07.020.
    陶玮,Masterlark T,沈正康等.2014.紫坪铺水库造成孔隙弹性耦合变化及其对2008年汶川地震触发作用.地球物理学报,57(10):3318-3331.
    郑亮,张怀,孙玉军等.2013.水库触发地震研究中二维与三维有限元模拟结果比较.地震,33(4):162-170.
    周斌,薛世峰,邓志辉等.2010.水库诱发地震时空演化与库水加卸载及渗透过程的关系———以紫坪铺水库为例.地球物理学报,53(11):2651-2670,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2010.11.013.

版权所有:© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心