核电站地震易损性分析方法的研究进展
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摘要
地震概率风险评估是核电站地震安全评估方法之一,其中地震易损性分析是地震风险评估方法中的重要一步。本文针对核电站地震易损性分析方法研究进展进行了全面综述:首先介绍了三种核电站地震易损性分布模型,叙述了地震易损性由于数据来源不同而形成的多种分析方法:解析易损性分析、设计易损性分析、试验易损性分析、经验易损性分析、专家判断易损性分析和混合易损性分析,然后列表总结了美国三种核电站易损性分析方法:Zion法、SSMRP法和BNL法,并对基于保守确定性失效裕度分析的混合易损性分析方法进行了简要介绍,最后对全文进行了总结和评述。
Seismic probabilistic risk assessment,which includes seismic fragility analysis,is one of seismic safety evaluation methods for nuclear power plants. This paper gives a full review of the research progress of seismic fragility analysis of nuclear power plants: Firstly summary three distribution models of seismic fragility analysis for nuclear power plants; Secondly introduce some seismic fragility analysis methods based on different data sources,which include analytical fragility analysis,design fragility analysis,experimental fragility analysis,empirical fragility analysis,expert judgmental fragility analysis and combined fragility analysis; Thirdly summary three fragility analysis methods in America listed in the table: Zion method,SSMRP method and BNL method; Fourthly identify a hybrid fragility analysis method based on conservatism deterministic failure margin analysis; Finally full contents of seismic fragility analysis methods are summarized and discussed.
Seismic probabilistic risk assessment,which includes seismic fragility analysis,is one of seismic safety evaluation methods for nuclear power plants. This paper gives a full review of the research progress of seismic fragility analysis of nuclear power plants: Firstly summary three distribution models of seismic fragility analysis for nuclear power plants; Secondly introduce some seismic fragility analysis methods based on different data sources,which include analytical fragility analysis,design fragility analysis,experimental fragility analysis,empirical fragility analysis,expert judgmental fragility analysis and combined fragility analysis; Thirdly summary three fragility analysis methods in America listed in the table: Zion method,SSMRP method and BNL method; Fourthly identify a hybrid fragility analysis method based on conservatism deterministic failure margin analysis; Finally full contents of seismic fragility analysis methods are summarized and discussed.
引文
[1]Ellingwood B.Validation of seismic probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plants[R].NUREG/CR-0008,1994.
[2]Kennedy R P,Ravindra M K.Seismic fragilities for nuclear power plant studies[J].Nuclear Engineering and Design,1984,79(1):47-68.
[3]Park Y J,Hofmayer C H,Chokshi N C.Survey of seismic fragilities used in PRA studies of nuclear power plants[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,1998,62:185-195.
[4]Reed J W,Kennedy R P.Methodology for developing seismic fragilities[R].Report TR-103959,Electric Power Research Institute,1994.
[5]Budnitz R J.Current status of methodologies for seismic probabilistic safety analysis[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,1998,62:71-88.
[6]EQE.Summary of the seismic adequacy of twenty classes of equipment required for safe shutdown of nuclear plants[R].Report EPRI NP-7149-D,Electric Power Research Institute,1991.
[7]Tsai N C,Mochizuki G L,Holman G S.Componentfragility research program phase II development of seismic fragilities from high-level qualification data[R].NUREG/CR-5470,Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,1989.
[8]Holman G S,Chou C K.Componentfragility research program phase I component prioritization[R].NUREG/CR-4899,Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,1987.
[9]Ohtani K,Shibata H,Watabe M,et al.Seismic proving tests for nuclear power plant no.1[C]//Earthquake Engineering,Tenth World Conference,Balkema,Rotterdam,1992:3603-3608.
[10]Shimazaki Y,Kusumoto S,Akiyama H,et al.Seismic proving tests for nuclear power plant,no.2[C]//Earthquake Engineering,Tenth World Conference,Balkema Rotterdam,1992:3609-3614.
[11]Kennedy R,Nie J,Hofmayer C,et al.Evaluation of JNES equipment fragility tests for use in seismic probabilistic risk assessments for U.S.nuclear power plants[R].NUREG/CR-7040,Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research,2011.
[12]Iijima T,Abe H,Fujita T.Program outline of seismic fragility capacity tests on nuclear power plant equipment[C]//Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering,ICONE12,Virginia,USA,2004,367-374.
[13]Iijima T,Abe H,Suzuki K.Seismic fragility capacity of equipment-horizontal shaft pump test[C]//Proceedings of the 18th International Conference on Structural Mechanics in Reactor Technology,SMiRT 18,Beijing,China,2005.
[14]Iijima T,Abe H,Suzuki K.Seismic fragility capacity of equipment-electric panel test[C]//Transactions of the 19th International Conference on Structural Mechanics in Reactor Technology,SMiRT 19,Toronto,Canada,2007.
[15]Fujita T,Sasaki Y,Abe H,et al.NUPEC project:seismic proving test on reactor shutdown cooling systems-(summary of results)[C]//K17/3,Transactions of the 14th International Conference on Structural Mechanics in Reactor Technology,SMiRT 14,Lyon,France,1997.
[16]Hirama T,Goto M,Hasegawa T,et al.Seismic proof test of a reinforced concrete containment vessel(RCCV)Part 1:Test model and pressure test[J].Nuclear Engineering and Design,2005,235:1335-1348.
[17]Hirama T,Goto M,Shiba K,et al.Seismic proof test of a reinforced concrete containment vessel(RCCV)Part 2:Results of shaking table tests[J].Nuclear Engineering and Design,2005,235:1349-1371.
[18]Hirama T,Goto M,Kumagai H,et al.Seismic proof test of a reinforced concrete containment vessel(RCCV)Part 3.Evaluation of seismic safety margin[J].Nuclear Engineering and Design,2007,237:1128-1139.
[19]Bandyopadhyay K K,Hofmayer C H.Seismic fragility of nuclear plant components(phase I)[R].NUREG/CR-4659,BNL-NUREG-52007,Vol.1,July 1986.
[20]Bandyopadhyay K K,Hofmayer C H,Kassir M K,et al.Seismic fragility of nuclear power plant components(phase II)a fragility handbook on eighteen components[R].NUREG/CR-4659,BNL-NUREG-52007,Vol.4,August 1991.
[21]王晓磊,侯钢领,吕大刚.某核电站安全壳1:15模型振动台试验[J].工程力学,2014,31(增刊):249-252.WANGXiaolei,HOU Gangling,LDagang.Shaking table tests of a 1:15 reinforced concrete containment vessel model for a nuclear power plant[J].Engineering Mechanics,2014,31(Suppl):249-252.(in Chinese)
[22]Cover L E,Bohn M P,Campbell R D,et al.Handbook of nuclear power plant seismic fragilities[R].NUREG/CR-3558,Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,June 1985.
[23]Newmark N M,Cornell C A.On the seismic reliability of nuclear power plants[C]//ANS Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Reactor Safety,Newport Beach,CA,May 1978.
[24]Campbell R,Hardy G,Merz K.Seismic fragility application guide[R].EPRI 1002988,Palo Alto,California,December 2002.
[25]Newmark N M.Inelastic design of nuclear reactor structures and its implications on design of critical equipment[C]//Transactions of the 4th International Conference on Structural Mechanics in Reactor Technology,San Francisco,CA,1977.
[26]Riddell R,Newmark N M.Statistical analysis of the response of nonlinear systems subjected to earthquakes[R].University of Illinois Civil Engineering Department Report UILU 79-2016,August 1979.
[27]Kennedy R P,Murray R C,Ravindra M K,et al.Assessment of seismic margin calculation methods[R].NUREG/CR-5270,Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,March 1989.
[28]Shinozuka M,Hwang H,Reich M.Reliability assessment of reinforced concrete containment structures[J].Nuclear Engineering and Design,1984,80:247-267.
[29]Ellingwood B,Bhattacharya B,Zheng R.Reliability-based condition assessment of steel containment and liners[R].NUREG/CR-5442,ORNL/TM-13244,Oak Ridge National Laboratory,1996.
[30]Klamerus E W.Structural seismic fragility analysis of the Surry containment[R].NUREG/CR-6783,SAND2002-1996P,Sandia National Laboratories,2002.
[31]International Atomic Energy Agency.Earthquake experience and seismic qualification by indirect methods in nuclear installations[R].IAEA-TECDOC-1333,Vienna,Austria,January 2003.
[32]Kennedy R P,vonRiesemann W A,Wyllie L A,et al.Use of seismic experience and test data to show ruggedness of equipment in nuclear power plants[R].Sandia National Laboratories,June,1992.
[33]Baughman P,Sumodobila B N.SQUG electronic earthquakes experience database users guide[R].EPRI TR-113705,EPRI,Palo Alto,CA,1999.
[34]Cummings G E.The use of data and judgment in determining seismic hazard and fragilities[C]//8thInternational Conference on Structural Mechanics in Reactor Technology,Brussels,Belgium,August 19-23,1985.
[35]George LL,Mensing R W.Using subjective percentiles and test data for estimating fragility functions[C]//DOE Statistical Symposium,sponsored by the Department of Energy,Berkeley,CA,January 15,1981.
[36]Bandyopadhyay K K,Hofmayer C H,Kassir M K,et al.Seismic fragility of nuclear power plant components(phaseⅡ)[R].NUREG/CR-4659,BNL-NUREG-52007,Vol.3,1990.
[37]USNRC.Reactor safety study[R].WASH 1400,NUREG-73/041,1975.
[38]Hwang H H M.Fragility assessment for seismic PRA studies[R].BNL-NUREG-36344,TI85 012506,Brookhaven National Laboratory,NY,USA,1985.
[39]Kennedy R P,Ravindra M K.Seismic fragilities for nuclear power plant risk studies[J].Nuclear Engineering and Design,1984(79):47-68.
[40]Smith P D,Dong R G,Bernreuter D L,et al.Seismic safety margins research program phase I final report-overview[R].NUREG/CR-2015,Vol.1,Lawrence Livermore Laboratory,1981.
[41]Hwang H,Reich M,Shinozuka M.Structural reliability analysis and seismic risk assessment[R].BNL-NUREG-34502,Brookhaven National Laboratory,1984.
[42]Kennedy R P,Murray R C,Ravindra M K,et al.Assessment of seismic margin calculation methods[R].NUREG/CR-5270,Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,1989.
[43]Kennedy R P.Overview of methods for seismic PRA and margins analysis including recent innovations[C]//Proceedings of OECD/NEA Workshop on Seismic Risk,Tokyo,Japan,Aug.10-12,1999.
[44]Lee N H,Song K B.Seismic capability evaluation of theprestressed/reinforced concrete containment,Yonggwang nuclear power plant Units 5 and6[J].Nuclear Engineering and Design,1999,192:189-203.
[2]Kennedy R P,Ravindra M K.Seismic fragilities for nuclear power plant studies[J].Nuclear Engineering and Design,1984,79(1):47-68.
[3]Park Y J,Hofmayer C H,Chokshi N C.Survey of seismic fragilities used in PRA studies of nuclear power plants[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,1998,62:185-195.
[4]Reed J W,Kennedy R P.Methodology for developing seismic fragilities[R].Report TR-103959,Electric Power Research Institute,1994.
[5]Budnitz R J.Current status of methodologies for seismic probabilistic safety analysis[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,1998,62:71-88.
[6]EQE.Summary of the seismic adequacy of twenty classes of equipment required for safe shutdown of nuclear plants[R].Report EPRI NP-7149-D,Electric Power Research Institute,1991.
[7]Tsai N C,Mochizuki G L,Holman G S.Componentfragility research program phase II development of seismic fragilities from high-level qualification data[R].NUREG/CR-5470,Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,1989.
[8]Holman G S,Chou C K.Componentfragility research program phase I component prioritization[R].NUREG/CR-4899,Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,1987.
[9]Ohtani K,Shibata H,Watabe M,et al.Seismic proving tests for nuclear power plant no.1[C]//Earthquake Engineering,Tenth World Conference,Balkema,Rotterdam,1992:3603-3608.
[10]Shimazaki Y,Kusumoto S,Akiyama H,et al.Seismic proving tests for nuclear power plant,no.2[C]//Earthquake Engineering,Tenth World Conference,Balkema Rotterdam,1992:3609-3614.
[11]Kennedy R,Nie J,Hofmayer C,et al.Evaluation of JNES equipment fragility tests for use in seismic probabilistic risk assessments for U.S.nuclear power plants[R].NUREG/CR-7040,Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research,2011.
[12]Iijima T,Abe H,Fujita T.Program outline of seismic fragility capacity tests on nuclear power plant equipment[C]//Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering,ICONE12,Virginia,USA,2004,367-374.
[13]Iijima T,Abe H,Suzuki K.Seismic fragility capacity of equipment-horizontal shaft pump test[C]//Proceedings of the 18th International Conference on Structural Mechanics in Reactor Technology,SMiRT 18,Beijing,China,2005.
[14]Iijima T,Abe H,Suzuki K.Seismic fragility capacity of equipment-electric panel test[C]//Transactions of the 19th International Conference on Structural Mechanics in Reactor Technology,SMiRT 19,Toronto,Canada,2007.
[15]Fujita T,Sasaki Y,Abe H,et al.NUPEC project:seismic proving test on reactor shutdown cooling systems-(summary of results)[C]//K17/3,Transactions of the 14th International Conference on Structural Mechanics in Reactor Technology,SMiRT 14,Lyon,France,1997.
[16]Hirama T,Goto M,Hasegawa T,et al.Seismic proof test of a reinforced concrete containment vessel(RCCV)Part 1:Test model and pressure test[J].Nuclear Engineering and Design,2005,235:1335-1348.
[17]Hirama T,Goto M,Shiba K,et al.Seismic proof test of a reinforced concrete containment vessel(RCCV)Part 2:Results of shaking table tests[J].Nuclear Engineering and Design,2005,235:1349-1371.
[18]Hirama T,Goto M,Kumagai H,et al.Seismic proof test of a reinforced concrete containment vessel(RCCV)Part 3.Evaluation of seismic safety margin[J].Nuclear Engineering and Design,2007,237:1128-1139.
[19]Bandyopadhyay K K,Hofmayer C H.Seismic fragility of nuclear plant components(phase I)[R].NUREG/CR-4659,BNL-NUREG-52007,Vol.1,July 1986.
[20]Bandyopadhyay K K,Hofmayer C H,Kassir M K,et al.Seismic fragility of nuclear power plant components(phase II)a fragility handbook on eighteen components[R].NUREG/CR-4659,BNL-NUREG-52007,Vol.4,August 1991.
[21]王晓磊,侯钢领,吕大刚.某核电站安全壳1:15模型振动台试验[J].工程力学,2014,31(增刊):249-252.WANGXiaolei,HOU Gangling,LDagang.Shaking table tests of a 1:15 reinforced concrete containment vessel model for a nuclear power plant[J].Engineering Mechanics,2014,31(Suppl):249-252.(in Chinese)
[22]Cover L E,Bohn M P,Campbell R D,et al.Handbook of nuclear power plant seismic fragilities[R].NUREG/CR-3558,Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,June 1985.
[23]Newmark N M,Cornell C A.On the seismic reliability of nuclear power plants[C]//ANS Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Reactor Safety,Newport Beach,CA,May 1978.
[24]Campbell R,Hardy G,Merz K.Seismic fragility application guide[R].EPRI 1002988,Palo Alto,California,December 2002.
[25]Newmark N M.Inelastic design of nuclear reactor structures and its implications on design of critical equipment[C]//Transactions of the 4th International Conference on Structural Mechanics in Reactor Technology,San Francisco,CA,1977.
[26]Riddell R,Newmark N M.Statistical analysis of the response of nonlinear systems subjected to earthquakes[R].University of Illinois Civil Engineering Department Report UILU 79-2016,August 1979.
[27]Kennedy R P,Murray R C,Ravindra M K,et al.Assessment of seismic margin calculation methods[R].NUREG/CR-5270,Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,March 1989.
[28]Shinozuka M,Hwang H,Reich M.Reliability assessment of reinforced concrete containment structures[J].Nuclear Engineering and Design,1984,80:247-267.
[29]Ellingwood B,Bhattacharya B,Zheng R.Reliability-based condition assessment of steel containment and liners[R].NUREG/CR-5442,ORNL/TM-13244,Oak Ridge National Laboratory,1996.
[30]Klamerus E W.Structural seismic fragility analysis of the Surry containment[R].NUREG/CR-6783,SAND2002-1996P,Sandia National Laboratories,2002.
[31]International Atomic Energy Agency.Earthquake experience and seismic qualification by indirect methods in nuclear installations[R].IAEA-TECDOC-1333,Vienna,Austria,January 2003.
[32]Kennedy R P,vonRiesemann W A,Wyllie L A,et al.Use of seismic experience and test data to show ruggedness of equipment in nuclear power plants[R].Sandia National Laboratories,June,1992.
[33]Baughman P,Sumodobila B N.SQUG electronic earthquakes experience database users guide[R].EPRI TR-113705,EPRI,Palo Alto,CA,1999.
[34]Cummings G E.The use of data and judgment in determining seismic hazard and fragilities[C]//8thInternational Conference on Structural Mechanics in Reactor Technology,Brussels,Belgium,August 19-23,1985.
[35]George LL,Mensing R W.Using subjective percentiles and test data for estimating fragility functions[C]//DOE Statistical Symposium,sponsored by the Department of Energy,Berkeley,CA,January 15,1981.
[36]Bandyopadhyay K K,Hofmayer C H,Kassir M K,et al.Seismic fragility of nuclear power plant components(phaseⅡ)[R].NUREG/CR-4659,BNL-NUREG-52007,Vol.3,1990.
[37]USNRC.Reactor safety study[R].WASH 1400,NUREG-73/041,1975.
[38]Hwang H H M.Fragility assessment for seismic PRA studies[R].BNL-NUREG-36344,TI85 012506,Brookhaven National Laboratory,NY,USA,1985.
[39]Kennedy R P,Ravindra M K.Seismic fragilities for nuclear power plant risk studies[J].Nuclear Engineering and Design,1984(79):47-68.
[40]Smith P D,Dong R G,Bernreuter D L,et al.Seismic safety margins research program phase I final report-overview[R].NUREG/CR-2015,Vol.1,Lawrence Livermore Laboratory,1981.
[41]Hwang H,Reich M,Shinozuka M.Structural reliability analysis and seismic risk assessment[R].BNL-NUREG-34502,Brookhaven National Laboratory,1984.
[42]Kennedy R P,Murray R C,Ravindra M K,et al.Assessment of seismic margin calculation methods[R].NUREG/CR-5270,Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,1989.
[43]Kennedy R P.Overview of methods for seismic PRA and margins analysis including recent innovations[C]//Proceedings of OECD/NEA Workshop on Seismic Risk,Tokyo,Japan,Aug.10-12,1999.
[44]Lee N H,Song K B.Seismic capability evaluation of theprestressed/reinforced concrete containment,Yonggwang nuclear power plant Units 5 and6[J].Nuclear Engineering and Design,1999,192:189-203.
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