云南地区中强地震前应变释放特征
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摘要
利用云南区域台网地震目录资料,以地震应变能作为地震释放量度,基于应变释放加速模型对前兆地震序列进行非线性模拟.结果表明:云南地区1966—2013年发生的115例MS≥5.0地震中,具有加速特征的有79例,占69%;具有减速特征的有28例,占24%;数据太少无法判断加减速特征的有8例,占7%.主震为孤立型的前兆地震序列,其减速或数据少类型所占比例远大于加速型;主震为走滑型的前兆序列,其加速型序列要比主震为正断型或逆冲型序列多15%左右.搜索半径与前兆序列持续时间呈反比关系.对前兆地震序列模拟结果表明,主震的预测震级和时间误差为±0.3和0.5年.
Referring to the earthquake catalogues produced by the Yunnan Regional Seismic Network,and setting the seismic strain energy as a scale of the seismic energy release,this paper conducts a nonlinear simulation for the precursory earthquake-sequences based on the accelerating strain release model.In the period from 1966 to 2013,115 earthquakes with MS≥5.0occurred in Yunnan region.Among them,79 events are characterized by accelerating strain release,accounting for 69%.And 28 events are featured as decelerating strain release,accounting for 24%.The strain releases of the rest eight events accounting for 7% fail to show the features of acceleration or deceleration due to the less seismic data.As to the precursory earthquake sequences whose main shocks belong to the single-shock type,the ones whose earthquake strain releases are accelerating,or the ones lacking seismic data,are far more than the ones whose strain releases are accelerating.As to the precursory earthquake sequences whose main shocks belong to the strike-slip type,the ones whose earthquake strain releases are accelerating are 15% more than the ones whose main shocks belong to the normal-fault type,or 15% more than the thrust-fault type ones.The searching radius has an inverse relation with the duration of the precursory earthquake sequence.The simulated results for the precursory earthquakesequences indicate that the error of the main shock's magnitude is±0.30,and the error of the main shock's occurrence time is±0.5year.
Referring to the earthquake catalogues produced by the Yunnan Regional Seismic Network,and setting the seismic strain energy as a scale of the seismic energy release,this paper conducts a nonlinear simulation for the precursory earthquake-sequences based on the accelerating strain release model.In the period from 1966 to 2013,115 earthquakes with MS≥5.0occurred in Yunnan region.Among them,79 events are characterized by accelerating strain release,accounting for 69%.And 28 events are featured as decelerating strain release,accounting for 24%.The strain releases of the rest eight events accounting for 7% fail to show the features of acceleration or deceleration due to the less seismic data.As to the precursory earthquake sequences whose main shocks belong to the single-shock type,the ones whose earthquake strain releases are accelerating,or the ones lacking seismic data,are far more than the ones whose strain releases are accelerating.As to the precursory earthquake sequences whose main shocks belong to the strike-slip type,the ones whose earthquake strain releases are accelerating are 15% more than the ones whose main shocks belong to the normal-fault type,or 15% more than the thrust-fault type ones.The searching radius has an inverse relation with the duration of the precursory earthquake sequence.The simulated results for the precursory earthquakesequences indicate that the error of the main shock's magnitude is±0.30,and the error of the main shock's occurrence time is±0.5year.
引文
蒋长胜,吴忠良,史勇军.2004.中强震前地震活动矩释放加速现象(AMR)的普遍性问题[J].中国地震,20(2):119--125.Jiang C S,Wu Z L,Shi Y J.2004.Generality of accelerating moment release(AMR)before moderately strong earthquakes[J].Earthquake Research in China,20(2):119--125(in Chinese).
蒋长胜,吴忠良.2009.强震前“加速矩释放”(AMR)现象:对一个有争议的地震前兆的回溯性震例研究[J].地球物理学报,52(3):691--702.Jiang C S,Wu Z L.2009.Accelerating moment release(AMR)before strong earthquakes:A retrospective case study ofa controversial precursor[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,52(3):691--702(in Chinese).
蒋海昆,吴琼,董祥,苗青壮,宋金.2009a.不同温压条件下声发射应变能释放特征:加速模型参数物理含义的初步讨论[J].地球物理学报,52(8):2064--2073.Jiang H K,Wu Q,Dong X,Miao Q Z,Song J.2009a.Behaviors of AE strain release under the different temperatureand pressure condition:Discussion on the physical meanings of ASR model parameter[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,52(8):2064--2073(in Chinese).
蒋海昆,苗青壮,董祥,吴琼,黎明晓,宋金.2009b.中国大陆7级强震前中小地震应变释放特征[J].地震,29(3):1--11.Jiang H K,Miao Q Z,Dong X,Wu Q,Li M X,Song J.2009b.Characteristics of strain release before M7earthquakesin mainland China[J].Earthquake,29(3):1--11(in Chinese).
秦嘉政,钱晓东.2004.利用前兆事件对云南地区地震进行中短期预测研究[J].地震学报,26(2):140--150.Qin J Z,Qian X D.2004.Study on medium-short term earthquake forecast in Yunnan Province by precursory events[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,26(2):140--150(in Chinese).
秦嘉政,皇甫岗,钱晓东.2005.云南强震活动与预测方法研究[M].昆明:云南科技出版社:310--315.Qin J Z,Huangfu G,Qian X D.2005.StudyonStrongEarthquakeActivityinYunnanandPrediction Methods[M].Kunming:Yunnan Science and Technology Press:310--315(in Chinese).
苏有锦,李永莉,李忠华,易桂喜,刘丽芳.2003.川滇地区区域地震目录完整性最小震级分析[J].地震研究,26(增刊):10--16.Su Y J,Li Y L,Li Z H,Yi G X,Liu L F.2003.Analysis of minimum complete magnitude of earthquake catalog inSichuan-Yunnan region[J].Journal of Seismological Research,26(Suppl):10--16(in Chinese).
杨文政,马丽.1999.地震活动加速模型及其在中国的应用[J].地震学报,21(1):32--41.Yang W Z,Ma L.1999.Seismicity acceleration model and its application to several earthquake regions in China[J].ActaSeismologica Sinica,21(1):32--41(in Chinese).
杨文政,Vere-Jones D,马丽,刘杰.2000.一个关于临界地震的临界区域判别的方法[J].地震,20(4):28--38.Yang W Z,Vere-Jones D,Ma L,Liu J.2000.A method for locating the critical region of a future earthquake using thecritical earthquake concept[J].Earthquake,20(4):28--38(in Chinese).
余怀忠,尹祥础,夏蒙棼,许昭永,李敏,梁乃刚,彭克银,Kukshenko V,Elizarov S.2004.地震临界点理论的实验研究[J].地震学报,26(增刊):122--130.Yu H Z,Yin X C,Xia M F,Xu Z Y,Li M,Liang N G,Peng K Y,Kukshenko V,Elizarov S.2004.Experimental research on critical point hypothesis[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,26(Suppl):122--130(in Chinese).
中国地震局.1998.地震现场工作大纲和技术指南[M].北京:地震出版社:25--26.China Seismological Bureau.1998.Outlines of on-the-Spot Work on Earthquakes and Technology Guide[M].Beijing:Seismological Press:25--26(in Chinese).
周蕙兰,房桂荣,章爱娣,姜长宁.1982.余震序列的持续时间[J].地震学报,4(1):45--54.Zhou H L,Fang G R,Zhang A D,Jiang C N.1982.The duration of the aftershock sequence[J].Acta SeismologicaSinica,4(1):45--54(in Chinese).
左兆荣,张国民,吴建平.1996.1976年云南龙陵7.4级地震序列分析[J].地球物理学报,39(5):653--659.Zuo Z R,Zhang G M,Wu J P.1996.Analysis of the 1976Longling,Yunnan,earthquake sequence of MS7.4[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,39(5):653--659(in Chinese).
Benioff H.1951.Earthquakes and rock creep.PartⅠ:Creep characteristics of rocks and the origin of aftershocks[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,41(1):31--62.
Ben-Zion Y,Eneva M,Liu Y F.2003.Large earthquake cycles and intermittent criticality on heterogeneous faults due toevolving stress and seismicity[J].J Geophys Res,108(B6):2307.doi:10.1029/2002JB002121.
Bowman D D,Ouillon G,Sammis C G,Sornette A,Sornette D.1998.An observational test of the critical earthquakeconcept[J].J Geophys Res,103(B10):24359--24372.
Brehm D J,Braile L W.1998.Application of the time-to-failure method for intermediate-term prediction in the New Madrid seismic zone[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,88:564--580.
Brehm D J,Braile L W.1999.Intermediate-term earthquake prediction using the modified time-to-failure method insouthern California[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,89(1):275--293.
Bufe C G,Varnes D J.1993.Predictive modeling of the seismic cycle of the Greater San Francisco Bay region[J].J Geophys Res,98(B6):9871--9883.
Das S,Scholz C H.1981.Theory of time-dependent rupture in the earth[J].J Geophys Res,86(B7):6039--6051.
Gutenberg B,Richter C L.1956.Magnitude and energy of earthquakes[J].Ann Geofis,9(1):1--15.
JauméS C,Sykes L R.1999.Evolving towards a critical point:A review of accelerating seismic moment/energy releaseprior to large and great earthquakes[J].Pure Appl Geophys,155(2/3/4):279--305.
Main I G.1995.Earthquakes as critical phenomena:Implications for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,85(5):1299--1308.
Sornette D,Sammis C G.1995.Complex critical exponents from renormalization group theory of earthquakes:Implications for earthquake predictions[J].J Phys I France,5(5):607--619.
Sykes L R,JauméS C.1990.Seismic activity on neighbouring faults as a long-term precursor to large earthquakes in theSan Francisco Bay area[J].Nature,348(6302):595--599.
Varnes D J.1989.Predicting earthquakes by analyzing accelerating precursory seismic activity[J].Pure Appl Geophys,130(4):661--686.
Wang J C,Shieh C F.2004.Investigation of seismicity in central Taiwan using the accelerating seismic energy releasemodel[J].Terr Atmos Ocea Sci,15(1):1--13.
蒋长胜,吴忠良.2009.强震前“加速矩释放”(AMR)现象:对一个有争议的地震前兆的回溯性震例研究[J].地球物理学报,52(3):691--702.Jiang C S,Wu Z L.2009.Accelerating moment release(AMR)before strong earthquakes:A retrospective case study ofa controversial precursor[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,52(3):691--702(in Chinese).
蒋海昆,吴琼,董祥,苗青壮,宋金.2009a.不同温压条件下声发射应变能释放特征:加速模型参数物理含义的初步讨论[J].地球物理学报,52(8):2064--2073.Jiang H K,Wu Q,Dong X,Miao Q Z,Song J.2009a.Behaviors of AE strain release under the different temperatureand pressure condition:Discussion on the physical meanings of ASR model parameter[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,52(8):2064--2073(in Chinese).
蒋海昆,苗青壮,董祥,吴琼,黎明晓,宋金.2009b.中国大陆7级强震前中小地震应变释放特征[J].地震,29(3):1--11.Jiang H K,Miao Q Z,Dong X,Wu Q,Li M X,Song J.2009b.Characteristics of strain release before M7earthquakesin mainland China[J].Earthquake,29(3):1--11(in Chinese).
秦嘉政,钱晓东.2004.利用前兆事件对云南地区地震进行中短期预测研究[J].地震学报,26(2):140--150.Qin J Z,Qian X D.2004.Study on medium-short term earthquake forecast in Yunnan Province by precursory events[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,26(2):140--150(in Chinese).
秦嘉政,皇甫岗,钱晓东.2005.云南强震活动与预测方法研究[M].昆明:云南科技出版社:310--315.Qin J Z,Huangfu G,Qian X D.2005.StudyonStrongEarthquakeActivityinYunnanandPrediction Methods[M].Kunming:Yunnan Science and Technology Press:310--315(in Chinese).
苏有锦,李永莉,李忠华,易桂喜,刘丽芳.2003.川滇地区区域地震目录完整性最小震级分析[J].地震研究,26(增刊):10--16.Su Y J,Li Y L,Li Z H,Yi G X,Liu L F.2003.Analysis of minimum complete magnitude of earthquake catalog inSichuan-Yunnan region[J].Journal of Seismological Research,26(Suppl):10--16(in Chinese).
杨文政,马丽.1999.地震活动加速模型及其在中国的应用[J].地震学报,21(1):32--41.Yang W Z,Ma L.1999.Seismicity acceleration model and its application to several earthquake regions in China[J].ActaSeismologica Sinica,21(1):32--41(in Chinese).
杨文政,Vere-Jones D,马丽,刘杰.2000.一个关于临界地震的临界区域判别的方法[J].地震,20(4):28--38.Yang W Z,Vere-Jones D,Ma L,Liu J.2000.A method for locating the critical region of a future earthquake using thecritical earthquake concept[J].Earthquake,20(4):28--38(in Chinese).
余怀忠,尹祥础,夏蒙棼,许昭永,李敏,梁乃刚,彭克银,Kukshenko V,Elizarov S.2004.地震临界点理论的实验研究[J].地震学报,26(增刊):122--130.Yu H Z,Yin X C,Xia M F,Xu Z Y,Li M,Liang N G,Peng K Y,Kukshenko V,Elizarov S.2004.Experimental research on critical point hypothesis[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,26(Suppl):122--130(in Chinese).
中国地震局.1998.地震现场工作大纲和技术指南[M].北京:地震出版社:25--26.China Seismological Bureau.1998.Outlines of on-the-Spot Work on Earthquakes and Technology Guide[M].Beijing:Seismological Press:25--26(in Chinese).
周蕙兰,房桂荣,章爱娣,姜长宁.1982.余震序列的持续时间[J].地震学报,4(1):45--54.Zhou H L,Fang G R,Zhang A D,Jiang C N.1982.The duration of the aftershock sequence[J].Acta SeismologicaSinica,4(1):45--54(in Chinese).
左兆荣,张国民,吴建平.1996.1976年云南龙陵7.4级地震序列分析[J].地球物理学报,39(5):653--659.Zuo Z R,Zhang G M,Wu J P.1996.Analysis of the 1976Longling,Yunnan,earthquake sequence of MS7.4[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,39(5):653--659(in Chinese).
Benioff H.1951.Earthquakes and rock creep.PartⅠ:Creep characteristics of rocks and the origin of aftershocks[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,41(1):31--62.
Ben-Zion Y,Eneva M,Liu Y F.2003.Large earthquake cycles and intermittent criticality on heterogeneous faults due toevolving stress and seismicity[J].J Geophys Res,108(B6):2307.doi:10.1029/2002JB002121.
Bowman D D,Ouillon G,Sammis C G,Sornette A,Sornette D.1998.An observational test of the critical earthquakeconcept[J].J Geophys Res,103(B10):24359--24372.
Brehm D J,Braile L W.1998.Application of the time-to-failure method for intermediate-term prediction in the New Madrid seismic zone[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,88:564--580.
Brehm D J,Braile L W.1999.Intermediate-term earthquake prediction using the modified time-to-failure method insouthern California[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,89(1):275--293.
Bufe C G,Varnes D J.1993.Predictive modeling of the seismic cycle of the Greater San Francisco Bay region[J].J Geophys Res,98(B6):9871--9883.
Das S,Scholz C H.1981.Theory of time-dependent rupture in the earth[J].J Geophys Res,86(B7):6039--6051.
Gutenberg B,Richter C L.1956.Magnitude and energy of earthquakes[J].Ann Geofis,9(1):1--15.
JauméS C,Sykes L R.1999.Evolving towards a critical point:A review of accelerating seismic moment/energy releaseprior to large and great earthquakes[J].Pure Appl Geophys,155(2/3/4):279--305.
Main I G.1995.Earthquakes as critical phenomena:Implications for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis[J].Bull Seismol Soc Am,85(5):1299--1308.
Sornette D,Sammis C G.1995.Complex critical exponents from renormalization group theory of earthquakes:Implications for earthquake predictions[J].J Phys I France,5(5):607--619.
Sykes L R,JauméS C.1990.Seismic activity on neighbouring faults as a long-term precursor to large earthquakes in theSan Francisco Bay area[J].Nature,348(6302):595--599.
Varnes D J.1989.Predicting earthquakes by analyzing accelerating precursory seismic activity[J].Pure Appl Geophys,130(4):661--686.
Wang J C,Shieh C F.2004.Investigation of seismicity in central Taiwan using the accelerating seismic energy releasemodel[J].Terr Atmos Ocea Sci,15(1):1--13.
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