2015年4月25日尼泊尔M_w7.8地震孕育过程分析与震后趋势研判
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摘要
基于作者提出的孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论及板间地震区划分原则,划分了伊斯兰堡—加德满都地震区.从孕育周期界定与主震事件判识角度,分析了该地震区大(巨)震事件的孕育过程,研判了其未来震情.结果表明:伊斯兰堡—加德满都地震区至少已经历三个完整的孕育周期,是一个Mw8.3~8.6地震危险区;2015年4月25日尼泊尔Mw7.8地震,是该区当前孕育周期第三锁固段损伤累积至峰值强度点时发生的一次标志性大震事件;2015年5月12日尼泊尔Mw7.3地震发生后,该地震区再次处于临界状态,将发生Mw8.0~8.2地震.
In this study,we divided the Islamabad—Kathmandu seismic zone based on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and principles for dividing interplate seismogenic zones.Furthermore,we analyzed the seismogenic process of the large or great earthquake events in the zone from the angles of the definition of seismogenic period and the recognition of the main shock event,and forecasted the future earthquake situation.The results showed that the Islamabad—Kathmandu seismic zone has undergone at least three complete seismogenic periods and it is a dangerous seismic zone with Mw8.3~8.6earthquake.The Nepal Mw7.8earthquake on 25 April 2015is a symbolic major earthquake event by the time the damage of the third locked patch is accumulated to the peak stress in the current seismogenic period.After the Mw7.3earthquake on 12 May 2015,it has been at the critical state again for this seismic zone and a Mw8.0~8.2earthquake will occur.
In this study,we divided the Islamabad—Kathmandu seismic zone based on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and principles for dividing interplate seismogenic zones.Furthermore,we analyzed the seismogenic process of the large or great earthquake events in the zone from the angles of the definition of seismogenic period and the recognition of the main shock event,and forecasted the future earthquake situation.The results showed that the Islamabad—Kathmandu seismic zone has undergone at least three complete seismogenic periods and it is a dangerous seismic zone with Mw8.3~8.6earthquake.The Nepal Mw7.8earthquake on 25 April 2015is a symbolic major earthquake event by the time the damage of the third locked patch is accumulated to the peak stress in the current seismogenic period.After the Mw7.3earthquake on 12 May 2015,it has been at the critical state again for this seismic zone and a Mw8.0~8.2earthquake will occur.
引文
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Qin S Q,Li P,Xue L,et al.2014c.The definition of seismogenicperiod of strong earthquakes for some seismic zones insouthwest China.Progress in Geophysic(in Chinese),29(4):1526-1540,doi:10.6038/pg20140407.
Qin S Q,Li P,Xue L,et al.2014d.Analysis of the futureearthquake situation for some seismic zones in the east China,south China and southwest China.Progress in Geophysic(inChinese),29(3):1033-1045,doi:10.6038/pg20140307.
Qin S Q,Xue L,LI P,et al.2014e.Analysis on the futureearthquake situation for the Juneau-Vancouver-San FranciscoMexico City seismic zone abroad.Progress in Geophys.(inChinese),29(6):2530-2533,doi:10.6038/pg20140608.
Qin S Q,Xue L,LI P,et al.2014f.Analysis on the seismogenicprocesses of large or great earthquakes for some seismic zonesabroad based on the brittle failure theory of multiple lockedpatches(I).Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),29(4):1541-1554,doi:10.6038/pg20140408.
Qin S Q,Xue L,Li G l,et al.2014g.The verification ofprospective prediction for the Lushan MS7.0earthquake on 20April 2013and an analysis on future earthquake situation.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),29(1):141-147,doi:10.6038/pg20140118.
Qin S Q,Xue L,LI P,et al.2014h.A review of prospectiveprediction for the Yutian 7.3earthquake in Xinjiang provinceand an analysis on future earthquake situation.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),57(2):679-684,doi:10.6038/cjg20140231.
Qin S Q,Xue L,Li P,et al.2014i.A review of prospectiveprediction for the Jinggu MS6.6 earthquake in Yunnanprovince and an analysis on future earthquake situation.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),29(5):2479-2482,doi:10.6038/pg20140574.
Qin S Q,Li P,Xue L,et al.2014j.Proposition on amending someseismic parameters of the China historical earthquakecatalogue.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),29(6):2534-2537,doi:10.6038/pg20140609.
Qin S Q,Li P,Xue L,et al.2015.A prospective prediction of greatearthquakes for the Circum-Pacific seismic belt.Progress inGeophys.(in Chinese),30(2):540-558,doi:10.6038/pg20150210.
Song Z P,Zhang G M,Liu J.2011.Global Earthquake Catalog(inChinese).Beijing:Seismological Press.
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秦四清,薛雷,王媛媛等.2010b.对孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论的进一步验证及有关科学问题的讨论.地球物理学进展,25(3):749-758,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-2903.2010.03.002.
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秦四清,薛雷,李培,等.2014i.云南景谷MS6.6级地震前瞻性预测回顾及其震后趋势分析.地球物理进展,29(5):2479-2482,doi:10.6038/pg20140574.
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Ben-Menahem A,Aboodi E,Schild R.1974.The source of thegreat Assam earthquake-an interplate wedge motion.Physicsof the Earth and Planetary Interiors,9(4),265-289,doi:10.1016/0031-9201(74)90056-9.
Qin S Q,Xu X W,Hu P,et al.2010a.Brittle failure mechanism ofmultiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system andexploration on a new way for earthquake prediction.ChineseJ.Geophys.(in Chinese),53(4):1001-1014,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2010.04.025.
Qin S Q,Xue L,Wang Y Y,et al.2010b.Further verifications onthe brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches along aseismogenic fault system and discussions on some scienceissues.Progress in Geophysic(in Chinese),25(3):749-758,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-2903.2010.03.002.
Qin S Q,Xue L,Huang X,et al.2010c.Prediction of strongearthquakes in the Qinghai,Gansu and Ningxia regions.Progress in Geophysic(in Chinese),25(4):1168-1174,doi:10.3969/j.issn.10042903.2010.04.004.
Qin S Q,Xue L,Huang X,et al.2010d.A forward prediction ofmoderate-sized or strong earthquakes in Shandong,Hebei,Henan,Shanxi,Haicheng in Liaoning province and BeijingTianjing regions.Progress in Geophysic(in Chinese),25(5):1539-1549,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-2903.2010.05.003.
Qin S Q,Xue L,Xu X W,et al.2010e.A forward prediction ofstrong earthquakes in the Sichuan and Yunnan regions andanalysis on the seismogenic process of the Wenchuan Mw7.9earthquake.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),53(11):2639-2650,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2010.11.012.
Qin S Q,Xue L,Huang X,et al.2011a.A forward prediction ofstrong earthquakes in the Xinjiang and its border regions,theInner Mongolia region,and certain regions of east China,south China and Taiwan.Progress in Geophysic(in chinese),26(1):21-31,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-2903.2011.01.002.
Qin S Q,Xiong J H,Xue L,et al.2011b.Seismogenic law andmode of strong earthquake.Journal of Earth Sciences andEnvironment(in Chinese),33(3):311-316.
Qin S Q,Xue L.2011c.A summary of prediction for the YingjiangMS5.8 earthquake in Yunnan and the Burma MS7.2earthquake as well as the analysis on the earthquake situationafter the earthquake.Progress in Geophysic(in Chinese),26(2):462-468,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-2903.2011.02.010.
Qin S Q,Li G L,Xue L.2012a.A statistical relation between thesymbolic earthquake magnitude and the earthquake magnitudeat peak strength point during the failure process of lookedpatch.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),27(5):1841-1844,doi:10.6038/j.issn.1004-2903.2012.05.002.
Qin S Q,Xue L,Li G L,et al.2012b.The verification ofprospective prediction for the ZhaoTong earthquakes on 7September 2012.Progress in Geophysic(in Chinese),27(5):1837-1840,doi:10.6038/j.issn.1004-2903.2012.05.001.
Qin S Q,Xue L,Li G L,et al.2013a.Reanalysis of the futureearthquake situation for some seismic zones in the Sichuan andYunnan regions.Progress in Geophysic(in Chinese),28(4):1849-1859,doi:10.6038/pg20130426.
Qin S Q,Xue L,Li G L,et al.2013b.The verification ofprospective prediction for the Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6earthquake in Gansu province and an analysis on the futureearthquake situation.Progress in Geophysic(in Chinese),28(4):1860-1868,doi:10.6038/pg20130427.
Qin S Q,Li G L,Xue L,et al.2013c.Analysis of the futureearthquake situation for some seismic zones in the east Chinaand south China.Progress in Geophysic(in Chinese),28(5):2392-2406,doi:10.6038/pg20130520.
Qin S Q,Li G L,Xue L,et al.2013d.Reanalysis of the futureearthquake situation for some seismic zones in the region ofSouthwest China.Progress in Geophysic(in Chinese),28(5):2407-2432,doi:10.6038/pg20130521.
Qin S Q,Li G L,Xue L,et al.2013e.Reanalysis of the futureearthquake situation for some seismic zones in the Xinjiangregion and its border areas.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),28(5):2376-2391,doi:10.6038/pg20130519.
Qin S Q,Li G L,Xue L,et al.2014a.Analysis of the futureearthquake situation for some seismic zones in the northeastChina,north China and Taiwan.Progress in Geophysic(inChinese),29(2):0535-0554,doi:10.6038/pg20140210.
Qin S Q,Li G L,Xue L,et al.2014b.Analysis of the futureearthquake situation for some seismic zones in the northwestChina and Tibet.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),29(3):1046-1067,doi:10.6038/pg20140308.
Qin S Q,Li P,Xue L,et al.2014c.The definition of seismogenicperiod of strong earthquakes for some seismic zones insouthwest China.Progress in Geophysic(in Chinese),29(4):1526-1540,doi:10.6038/pg20140407.
Qin S Q,Li P,Xue L,et al.2014d.Analysis of the futureearthquake situation for some seismic zones in the east China,south China and southwest China.Progress in Geophysic(inChinese),29(3):1033-1045,doi:10.6038/pg20140307.
Qin S Q,Xue L,LI P,et al.2014e.Analysis on the futureearthquake situation for the Juneau-Vancouver-San FranciscoMexico City seismic zone abroad.Progress in Geophys.(inChinese),29(6):2530-2533,doi:10.6038/pg20140608.
Qin S Q,Xue L,LI P,et al.2014f.Analysis on the seismogenicprocesses of large or great earthquakes for some seismic zonesabroad based on the brittle failure theory of multiple lockedpatches(I).Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),29(4):1541-1554,doi:10.6038/pg20140408.
Qin S Q,Xue L,Li G l,et al.2014g.The verification ofprospective prediction for the Lushan MS7.0earthquake on 20April 2013and an analysis on future earthquake situation.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),29(1):141-147,doi:10.6038/pg20140118.
Qin S Q,Xue L,LI P,et al.2014h.A review of prospectiveprediction for the Yutian 7.3earthquake in Xinjiang provinceand an analysis on future earthquake situation.Chinese J.Geophys.(in Chinese),57(2):679-684,doi:10.6038/cjg20140231.
Qin S Q,Xue L,Li P,et al.2014i.A review of prospectiveprediction for the Jinggu MS6.6 earthquake in Yunnanprovince and an analysis on future earthquake situation.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),29(5):2479-2482,doi:10.6038/pg20140574.
Qin S Q,Li P,Xue L,et al.2014j.Proposition on amending someseismic parameters of the China historical earthquakecatalogue.Progress in Geophys.(in Chinese),29(6):2534-2537,doi:10.6038/pg20140609.
Qin S Q,Li P,Xue L,et al.2015.A prospective prediction of greatearthquakes for the Circum-Pacific seismic belt.Progress inGeophys.(in Chinese),30(2):540-558,doi:10.6038/pg20150210.
Song Z P,Zhang G M,Liu J.2011.Global Earthquake Catalog(inChinese).Beijing:Seismological Press.
秦四清,徐锡伟,胡平等.2010a.孕震断层的多锁固段脆性破裂机制与地震预测新方法的探索.地球物理学报,53(4):1001-1014,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2010.04.025.
秦四清,薛雷,王媛媛等.2010b.对孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论的进一步验证及有关科学问题的讨论.地球物理学进展,25(3):749-758,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-2903.2010.03.002.
秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫等.2010c.青海、甘肃与宁夏地区未来大地震预测分析.地球物理学进展,25(4):1168-1174,doi:10.3969/j.issn.10042903.2010.04.004.
秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫等.2010d.山东、河北、河南、山西、辽宁海城与京津地区未来中强地震预测.地球物理学进展,25(5):1539-1549,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-2903.2010.05.003.
秦四清,薛雷,徐锡伟等.2010e.川滇地区未来强震预测与汶川Mw7.9级地震孕震过程分析.地球物理学报,53(11):2639-2650,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2010.11.012.
秦四清,薛雷,黄鑫等.2011a.新疆与其边境地区、内蒙古地区及华东、华南与台湾部分地区未来强震预测.地球物理学进展,26(1):21-31,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-2903.2011.01.002.
秦四清,熊巨华,薛雷等.2011b.强震的孕育规律与孕震模式.地球科学与环境学报,33(3):311-316.
秦四清,薛雷.2011c.云南盈江MS5.8级地震和缅甸MS7.2级地震预测总结及震后趋势分析.地球物理学进展,26(2):462-468,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-2903.2011.02.010.
秦四清,李国梁,薛雷.2012a.锁固体破裂标志性地震震级与峰值强度点地震震级的统计关系.地球物理学进展,27(5):1841-1844,doi:10.6038/j.issn.1004-2903.2012.05.002.
秦四清,薛雷,李国梁等.2012b.云南昭通“9·7地震”的前瞻性预测验证.地球物理学进展,27(5):1837-1840,doi:10.6038/j.issn.1004-2903.2012.05.001.
秦四清,薛雷,李国梁等.2013a.川滇地区某些地震区未来震情研判.地球物理学进展,28(4):1849-1859,doi:10.6038/pg20130426.
秦四清,薛雷,李国梁等.2013b.甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震的前瞻性预测验证及震后趋势分析.地球物理学进展,28(4):1860-1868,doi:10.6038/pg20130427.
秦四清,李国梁,薛雷等.2013c.华南与华东某些地震区地震趋势分析.地球物理学进展,28(5):2392-2406,doi:10.6038/pg20130520.
秦四清,李国梁,薛雷等.2013d.中国西南地区某些地震区未来震情研判.地球物理学进展,28(5):2407-2432,doi:10.6038/pg20130521.
秦四清,李国梁,薛雷,et al.2013e.中国新疆及邻区某些地震区未来震情研判.地球物理学进展,28(5):2376-2391,doi:10.6038/pg20130519.
秦四清,李国梁,薛雷,等.2014a.东北、华北与台湾地区某些地震区地震趋势分析.地球物理学进展,29(2):535-554,doi:10.6038/pg20140210.
秦四清,李国梁,薛雷,等.2014b.西北与西藏地区某些地震区地震趋势分析.地球物理学进展,29(3):1046-1067,doi:10.6038/pg20140308.
秦四清,李培,薛雷等.2014c.中国西南地区某些地震区强震孕育周期界定.地球物理学进展,29(4):1526-1540,doi:10.6038/pg20140407.
秦四清,李培,薛雷等.2014d.华东、华南与西南地区某些地震区地震趋势分析.地球物理学进展,29(3):1033-1045,doi:10.6038/pg20140307.
秦四清,薛雷,李培,等.2014e.朱诺—温哥华—旧金山—墨西哥城
地震区未来震情研判.地球物理学进展,29(6):2530-2533doi:10.6038/pg20140608.
秦四清,薛雷,李培,等.2014f.国外某些地震区大地震孕育过程分析(I).地球物理学进展,29(4):1541-1554,doi:10.6038/pg20140408.
秦四清,薛雷,李国梁,等.2014g.四川省芦山“4·20”7.0级地震的前瞻性预测验证及震后趋势分析.地球物理学进展,29(1):141-147,doi:10.6038/pg20140118.
秦四清,薛雷,李培,等.2014h.新疆于田7.3级地震前瞻性预测回顾及其震后趋势分析.地球物理学报,57(2):679-684,doi:10.6038/cjg20140231.
秦四清,薛雷,李培,等.2014i.云南景谷MS6.6级地震前瞻性预测回顾及其震后趋势分析.地球物理进展,29(5):2479-2482,doi:10.6038/pg20140574.
秦四清,李培,薛雷,等.2014j.中国历史地震目录某些地震参数修订建议.地球物理进展,29(6):2534-2537,doi:10.6038/pg20140609.
秦四清,李培,薛雷等.2015.环太平洋地震带巨震预测.地球物理学进展,30(2):540-558,doi:10.6038/pg20150210.
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