方差分析叠加周期外推法在地震预测中的应用
详细信息 本馆镜像全文    |  推荐本文 | | 获取馆网全文
摘要
首先介绍方差分析叠加周期外推法,并以郯庐地震带公元1400年以来40次MS5级以上地震为例说明方差分析叠加周期外推法的应用方法,应用该方法分析了不同区域、不同震级的地震序列。结果显示:郯庐断裂地震带、北京-渤海地震带、苏鲁皖交界地区、安徽地区的地震存在显著周期,从统计学的角度可以预测下一次地震的范围。而河北平原地震带、淮河地震带、华东地区的地震经度或纬度则不存在显著周期,无法外推下一次地震的范围。方差分析叠加周期外推法用于地震预测尚属于一种尝试。外推预测值与原始实测值虽然存在一定的误差,但方法的意义在于应用统计理论上把预测地点进行了定量化,缩小了监视范围。从某种意义上,还为研究地震机理,探索地震在时、空、强的演变规律上,提供研究方向。
This paper firstly introduces variance analysis superimposed by periodic extrapolation and takes 40 earthquakes with MS≥5 in Tanlu seismic belt since 1400 B.C as an example to illustrate the application of variance analysis superimposed by periodic extrapolation. The paper analyzes the seismic sequences of different regions, different earthquake magnitude by using this method. The results show that significant earthquake cycle exists in Tanlu fault earthquake zone, Beijing-Bohai seismic belt, Jiangsu-Shanghai-Anhui border area and Anhui region. From a statistical point of view, we can predict the next earthquake. But there's no significant period in Hebei plain seismic belt, Huaihe seismic zone, and earthquake longitude or latitude in eastern China,which cannot extrapolated for the range of next quake.Variance analysis superimposed periodic extrapolation for earthquake prediction is still an attempt. In addition, the article also pointes out that there may be some errorsbetween extrapolation forecast value and measured value. But the significance lies in the application of statistical theory to predict the locations quantitatively, and narrowing the monitoring range. In a sense, it also provides research directions for the study of mechanism of earthquake, the exploration of earthquake rules in time, space and strength revolution.
引文
[1]车文,宫英丽.方差分析滤波法在时间序列预测分析中的应用[J].数理医学杂志,2001,14(2):157-159.
    [2]杜晓林.概率论与数理统计[M].北京:气象出版社,2005.
    [3]邓韫.地震周期的存在及形成机制讨论[J].华南地震,2003,23(01):51-56.
    [4]王国英.关于地下水氡浓度的周期变化-水氡潮[J].华南地震,1982,1(04):63-69.
    [5]柯龙生.地震活动周期的谱分析[J].华南地震,1989,9(1):17-22.
    [6]杨长登.用方差分析周期叠加外推法在预报年降水量[J].贵州气象,1998,22(1):23-25.
    [7]邢兰辉,吕惠萍,张锦辉.周期叠加方差分析法预报河川径流量[J].水文,2007,27(4):41-44.
    [8]张绍治.多因子方差分析BASIC程序[J].华南地震,1988,8(1):67-72.
    [9]李起彤,南金生,苏顺昌,等.华东地区中强地震构造背景和地质标志研究[J].华南地震,1990,10(1):1-14.
    [10]张鹏,王良书,钟锴,等.郯庐断裂带的分段性研究[J].地质评论,2007,53(5):586-593.
    [11]汪素云,许忠淮.中国东部大陆的地震构造应力场[J].地震学报,1985,7(1):19-34。
    [12]闵子群,吴戈,江在雄,等.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪-公元1911年)[M].北京:地震出版社,1995.
    [13]汪素云,时振梁.中国近代地震目录(公元1912~公元1990,MS≥4.7)[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1999.

版权所有:© 2023 中国地质图书馆 中国地质调查局地学文献中心