地震动参数区划中的不确定性分析
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摘要
基于《中国地震动参数区划图》(GB18306-2001)中的5套潜在震源区划分及地震活动性参数方案,计算了中国大陆地区所对应的50年超越概率10%和2%的基岩峰值加速度标准差和变异系数.分析了峰值加速度标准差和变异系数的空间分布特征,统计了省级、地级及县级城市峰值加速度的不确定性.结果表明,潜在震源区划分及地震活动性参数方案的不确定性对峰值加速度影响显著.标准差较大的地区与7.0级以上地震及大型活动断裂具有很强的相关性;峰值加速度变异系数较大的地区主要集中分布在我国的弱震活动地区,其次在塔克拉玛干沙漠及阿拉善高原地区.我国绝大部分城市峰值加速度标准差小于80×10-2m/s2;峰值加速度变异系数小于0.4.此外,经分析,峰值加速度的变异系数比标准差更适合表达区划图的不确定性.这些研究结果可为下一代区划图的编制工作提供一些有价值的参考.
Based on the 5 schemes for potential seismic source delineation and seismicity parameter design presented in the National Seismic Zoning Map of China(GB 18306-2001),we calculated standard deviation and variation coefficient of peak ground acceleration(PGA) for 10-percent and 2-percent exceedance probability in 50 years at bedrock level on the Chinese mainland.The spatial distribution of standard deviation and variation coefficient of PGA is analyzed,and uncertainty of PGA for province-,prefecture-and county-level cities in China is also studied.The result shows that the uncertainty in the schemes for potential seismic source delineation and seismicity parameter design has a significant impact on peak ground acceleration.The areas with large standard deviation are closely related with earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater and large-scale active faults,while the areas with large variation coefficient of PGA are mainly located in regions with weak seismicity,the Taklimakan desert in the west and the Alxa plateau.Standard deviation of PGA is lower than 80×10-2 m/s2,and variation coefficient is smaller than 0.4 in most cities in China.After analysis we found that,as compared with standard deviation,variation coefficient of PGA is more suitable for representing uncertainty in the zoning map.The results can provide valuable references for the compilation of next version of the zonation map.
Based on the 5 schemes for potential seismic source delineation and seismicity parameter design presented in the National Seismic Zoning Map of China(GB 18306-2001),we calculated standard deviation and variation coefficient of peak ground acceleration(PGA) for 10-percent and 2-percent exceedance probability in 50 years at bedrock level on the Chinese mainland.The spatial distribution of standard deviation and variation coefficient of PGA is analyzed,and uncertainty of PGA for province-,prefecture-and county-level cities in China is also studied.The result shows that the uncertainty in the schemes for potential seismic source delineation and seismicity parameter design has a significant impact on peak ground acceleration.The areas with large standard deviation are closely related with earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater and large-scale active faults,while the areas with large variation coefficient of PGA are mainly located in regions with weak seismicity,the Taklimakan desert in the west and the Alxa plateau.Standard deviation of PGA is lower than 80×10-2 m/s2,and variation coefficient is smaller than 0.4 in most cities in China.After analysis we found that,as compared with standard deviation,variation coefficient of PGA is more suitable for representing uncertainty in the zoning map.The results can provide valuable references for the compilation of next version of the zonation map.
引文
陈汉尧,胡聿贤,霍俊荣.1992.衰减关系系数不确定性对地震危险性分析结果的影响[J].华北地震科学,10(4):49-54.
丁韫玉,狄秀玲.1991.潜在震源区不确定性因素分析[J].中国地震,7(4):33-38.
高孟潭.2003.新的国家地震区划图[J].地震学报,25(6):630-636.
高孟潭,卢寿德.2006.关于下一代地震区划图编制原则与关键技术的初步探讨[J].震灾防御技术,1(1):1-6.
高玉峰,谢康和,王朝晖,颜赤平,曾国熙.1999.潜在震源区范围的不确定性对地震危险性分析结果的影响规律[J].科技通报,15(4):258-262.
高玉峰,谢康和,曾国熙,颜赤平,王朝晖.1998.地震危险性分析中不确定性因素的研究[J].浙江大学学报,32(5):590-596.
胡聿贤,陈汉尧.1994.关于地震危险性估计中不确定性的统一分析[J].地震学报,16(4):511-518.
黄玮琼,吴宣.2003.地震活动性参数不确定性对城镇危险性估计的影响[J].地震学报,25(6):615-620.
潘华,黄玮琼.2003.地震统计区划分不确定性对场点地震危险性计算的影响[J].地震学报,25(2):199-204.
汪素云,俞言祥,高阿甲,阎秀杰.2000.中国分区地震动衰减关系的确定[J].中国地震,16(2):99-106.
鄢家全,韩炜,高孟潭.1996.地震活动性参数的不确定性及其对区划结果的影响[J].中国地震,12(增刊):71-77.
杨智娴,张培震,郑月君.1998.用逻辑树方法估计地震年发生率的不确定性[J].地震学报,20(2):185-193.
张晓梅.2001.基于抗倒塌设防目标的设计地震动区划研究[D].北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所:1-48.
Kiureghian A D,Ang A H-S.1977.Afault-rupture model for seismic risk analysis[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,67(4):1173-1194.
McGuire R K.1990.Demonstrations of a risk-based approach to high-level waste repository evaluations[R]∥ElectricPower Research Institute Report,NP-7057,9.1-9.16.
丁韫玉,狄秀玲.1991.潜在震源区不确定性因素分析[J].中国地震,7(4):33-38.
高孟潭.2003.新的国家地震区划图[J].地震学报,25(6):630-636.
高孟潭,卢寿德.2006.关于下一代地震区划图编制原则与关键技术的初步探讨[J].震灾防御技术,1(1):1-6.
高玉峰,谢康和,王朝晖,颜赤平,曾国熙.1999.潜在震源区范围的不确定性对地震危险性分析结果的影响规律[J].科技通报,15(4):258-262.
高玉峰,谢康和,曾国熙,颜赤平,王朝晖.1998.地震危险性分析中不确定性因素的研究[J].浙江大学学报,32(5):590-596.
胡聿贤,陈汉尧.1994.关于地震危险性估计中不确定性的统一分析[J].地震学报,16(4):511-518.
黄玮琼,吴宣.2003.地震活动性参数不确定性对城镇危险性估计的影响[J].地震学报,25(6):615-620.
潘华,黄玮琼.2003.地震统计区划分不确定性对场点地震危险性计算的影响[J].地震学报,25(2):199-204.
汪素云,俞言祥,高阿甲,阎秀杰.2000.中国分区地震动衰减关系的确定[J].中国地震,16(2):99-106.
鄢家全,韩炜,高孟潭.1996.地震活动性参数的不确定性及其对区划结果的影响[J].中国地震,12(增刊):71-77.
杨智娴,张培震,郑月君.1998.用逻辑树方法估计地震年发生率的不确定性[J].地震学报,20(2):185-193.
张晓梅.2001.基于抗倒塌设防目标的设计地震动区划研究[D].北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所:1-48.
Kiureghian A D,Ang A H-S.1977.Afault-rupture model for seismic risk analysis[J].Bull Seism Soc Amer,67(4):1173-1194.
McGuire R K.1990.Demonstrations of a risk-based approach to high-level waste repository evaluations[R]∥ElectricPower Research Institute Report,NP-7057,9.1-9.16.
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