亚洲国家地震生命损失的标度律及中长期预测研究
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摘要
研究了亚洲11个重要地震国家或地区(阿富汗,巴基斯坦,菲律宾,日本,伊朗,印度,印尼,中国大陆,中国华北地区,中国南北带)近代地震造成人员死亡率的自相似指数标度律,并将其应用于泊松模型中,预测2025年前亚洲重要地震国家发生地震生命损失千人、万人和十万人以上巨灾事件的概率。其中,中国大陆华北地区、日本和印尼发生万人以上死亡的巨灾概率可能较高。
This paper studied the self-similar power scaling laws of earthquake fatalities for eleven countries or regions in Asia(including Afghanistan,Pakistan,Philippines,Japan,Iran,India,Indonesia,China continent,north China and the South-North Zone of China).The scaling laws have been used in long-term forecast of earthquake fatalities before 2025 based on the Poisson model.The results give occurrence probabilities of earthquake fatalities(≥1000,≥10000 and ≥100000 persons) for eleven countries or regions in Asia.Specially Japan,Indonesia,and north China would have higher occurrence probabilities of earthquake fatalities of more than 10000 persons.
This paper studied the self-similar power scaling laws of earthquake fatalities for eleven countries or regions in Asia(including Afghanistan,Pakistan,Philippines,Japan,Iran,India,Indonesia,China continent,north China and the South-North Zone of China).The scaling laws have been used in long-term forecast of earthquake fatalities before 2025 based on the Poisson model.The results give occurrence probabilities of earthquake fatalities(≥1000,≥10000 and ≥100000 persons) for eleven countries or regions in Asia.Specially Japan,Indonesia,and north China would have higher occurrence probabilities of earthquake fatalities of more than 10000 persons.
引文
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[3]Mandelbrot B.The fractal geometry of nature[M].New York:W H Freeman,1983.
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[5]金学申.生命损失的概率模型[J].中国地震,1997,13(3):280-287.
[6]傅征祥,刘桂萍,粟生平.中国大陆地震死亡率的标度律及其在预测中的应用[J].地震,2002,22(2):13-16.
[7]楼宝棠.中国古今地震灾情汇总[M].北京:地震出版杜,1996.
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[9]中国地震局监测预报司.中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编(1996—2000年).北京:地震出版社.2001.
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[11]Utsu T.A List of Deathly Earthquakes in the World:1500—2000,International handbook of earth-quake and engineering seismology[A].edited by Lee W H,Kanamori H,Jennings P C,et al.Aca-demic Press[C].Amsterdam,Boston,New York,Oxford,Paris,San Diego,San Francisco,Sin-gapore,Sydney,Tokyo,2002.691-718.
[12]http:Documents and Settings Administrator My Documents Significant Earthquake of the World(USGS—1992—2008).
[2]Nishenko S P,Barton C C.Scaling laws for natural disaster fatathies reduction&predictability ofnatural disasters EJZ[J].Eds Rudle,Turcotte&Klein,SFI studies in the Science of Complexity,Addison Wesley.1996,XXV:3-17.
[3]Mandelbrot B.The fractal geometry of nature[M].New York:W H Freeman,1983.
[4]Sma11ey R F,Chatelain Jr J L,Turcotte D L,el al.Afractal approach to the clustering of earth-quakes:Applications to the seismicity of the New Hebrides[J].Bull Seism Soc Am,1987,77:1368-1381.
[5]金学申.生命损失的概率模型[J].中国地震,1997,13(3):280-287.
[6]傅征祥,刘桂萍,粟生平.中国大陆地震死亡率的标度律及其在预测中的应用[J].地震,2002,22(2):13-16.
[7]楼宝棠.中国古今地震灾情汇总[M].北京:地震出版杜,1996.
[8]国家地震局,国家统计局.中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编(1990—1995年)[M].北京:地震出版社,1996.
[9]中国地震局监测预报司.中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编(1996—2000年).北京:地震出版社.2001.
[10]国家地震局震害防御司编译.全球重大灾害性地震的目录(2150 B.C.—1991 A.D.)[M].北京:地震出版社,2001.
[11]Utsu T.A List of Deathly Earthquakes in the World:1500—2000,International handbook of earth-quake and engineering seismology[A].edited by Lee W H,Kanamori H,Jennings P C,et al.Aca-demic Press[C].Amsterdam,Boston,New York,Oxford,Paris,San Diego,San Francisco,Sin-gapore,Sydney,Tokyo,2002.691-718.
[12]http:Documents and Settings Administrator My Documents Significant Earthquake of the World(USGS—1992—2008).
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