用ETAS模型分析自贡矿井注水触发地震
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摘要
为研究自贡地区矿井注水与地震活动性之间的关系,按地震活动规律将注水区ML1.2以上历史地震活动划分为3个阶段,采用POWELL法反演了各阶段ETAS模型参数。结果表明,不存在注水的第1、2阶段背景地震比例约40%～50%,单个地震序列中余震较少。而在注水的第3阶段,由地震自激产生的余震比例较高(93.1%),而背景地震仅占6.9%,比第1、2阶段都要少,这一结果与已有的认识相矛盾。为此,提出单位时间背景地震的发生率,即ETAS模型参数中的μ值,作为判断注水触发地震的依据。计算结果表明,与前两个阶段相比,第3阶段的确拥有最大的μ值,说明注水对该区地震触发有明显影响。
In order to reveal the relationship between the water injection in mine wells and the seismicity in Zigong,we divide the ML≥1. 2 historical earthquakes into 3 phases according to the seismicity behaviors,and then the ETAS model parameters are inversed by the POWELL method. The results show that Phases 1 and 2 with no water injection have the moderate-to-low ratio of background earthquakes ( 40% ～ 50% ),and aftershocks are relatively fewer for a single earthquake sequence. In Phase 3 with water injection,the aftershocks triggered by foreshocks dominate this phase (93. 1% ),while the number of background earthquakes only 6. 9% ,less than Phases 1 and 2,which conflicts with the known conclusion. To resolve this problem,we propose that the occurrence ratio of background in unit time,i. e. the μ value in ETAS model,should be used to an indicator of water injection triggered earthquakes. Compared with the first two phases,Phase 3 has the largest μ value,which illustrates the water injection has an obvious effect in the earthquake triggering.
In order to reveal the relationship between the water injection in mine wells and the seismicity in Zigong,we divide the ML≥1. 2 historical earthquakes into 3 phases according to the seismicity behaviors,and then the ETAS model parameters are inversed by the POWELL method. The results show that Phases 1 and 2 with no water injection have the moderate-to-low ratio of background earthquakes ( 40% ～ 50% ),and aftershocks are relatively fewer for a single earthquake sequence. In Phase 3 with water injection,the aftershocks triggered by foreshocks dominate this phase (93. 1% ),while the number of background earthquakes only 6. 9% ,less than Phases 1 and 2,which conflicts with the known conclusion. To resolve this problem,we propose that the occurrence ratio of background in unit time,i. e. the μ value in ETAS model,should be used to an indicator of water injection triggered earthquakes. Compared with the first two phases,Phase 3 has the largest μ value,which illustrates the water injection has an obvious effect in the earthquake triggering.
引文
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程式、刘文泰,1992,中国注水诱发地震的又一个实例,地震,(1),63～66。
蒋海昆、郑建常、吴琼等,2007,传染型余震序列模型震后早期参数特征及其地震学意义,地球物理学报,50(6),1778～1786。
刘文兵、马丽,2004,台湾集集和华北大同地震序列的定量模型分析,地震,24(1),155～162。
阮祥、程万正、张永久等,2008,四川长宁盐矿注水诱发地震研究,中国地震,24(3),226～234。
唐荣昌、韩渭宾,1993,四川活动断裂与地震,北京:地震出版社。
魏柏林、郭钦华、李纯清等,1999,论三水地震的成因,中国地震,15(3),247～256。
徐泽奎,1989,罗城地区的地质构造与注水采盐诱发地震,西北地震学报,11(3),96～98。
庄建仓、马丽,2005,主震和余震——从大森公式到ETAS模型,国际地震动态,(5),12～18。
Akaike H.,1974,A new look at the statistical model identification,IEEE Trans Automat Control,AC-19,716～723.
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Hainzl S.,Ogata Y.,2005,Detecting fluid signals in seismicity data through statistical earthquake modeling,J.Geophys.Res.,110,doi:10.1029/2004JB003247.
Healy J.H.,Rubey W.W.,Griggs D.T.,et al,1968,The Denver earthquakes,Science,161,1301～1304.
Lei X.L.,Yu G.Z.,Ma S.L.,et al,2008,Earthquake induced by water injection at～3km depth within the Rongchang gasfield,Chongqing,China,J.Geophys.Res.,113,B10310,doi:10.1029/2008JB005604.
Ogata Y.,1983,Estimation of the parameters in the modified Omori formula for aftershock frequencies by the maximum likelihoodprocedure,J.Phys.Earth,31,115～124.
Ogata Y.,1988,Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes,Journal of AmericanStatistical Association,Application,83(401),9～27.
Ogata Y.,1989,Statistical model for standard seismicity and detection of anomalies by residual analysis,Techtonophysics,169,159～174.
Ogata Y.,1992,Detection of relative quiescence before great earthquakes,through a statistical model,J.Geophys.Res.,97,19845～19871.
Ogata Y.,2005,Detection of anomalous seismicity as a stress change sensor,J.Geophys.Res.,110,B05S06,doi:10.1029/2004JB003245.
Omori F.,1984,On the aftershocks of earthquake,J.Coll.Sci.Imp.Univ.Tokyo,7,111～200.
Segall P.,1989,Earthquakes triggered by fluid extraction,Geology,17(10),942～946.
Utsu T.,1961,A statistical study on the occurrence of aftershocks,Geophys.Mag.,30,526～605.
Utsu T.,1970,Aftershocks and earthquake statistics(Ⅱ)-Further investigation of aftershocks and other earthquake sequencesbased on a new classification of earthquake sequences,J.Fac.Sci.Hokkaido Univ.,Sev.Ⅶ,3,197～266.
Utsu,T.,Ogata Y.,1997,Statistical Analysis of point processes for Seismicity(SASeis),IASPEI Software Library,vol.6,pp.13～94,Int.Assoc.of Seismol.and Phys.of Earth's Inter.,Trieste,Italy.
Woessner J.,S.Wiemer,2005,Assessing the quality of earthquake catalogues:estimating the magnitude of completeness and itsuncertainly,Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,95,no.2,doi10.1785/0120040007.
Yerkers R.F.,Castle R.O.,1976,Seismicity and faulting attributable to fluid extraction,Engineering Geology,10(24),151～167.
程式、刘文泰,1992,中国注水诱发地震的又一个实例,地震,(1),63～66。
蒋海昆、郑建常、吴琼等,2007,传染型余震序列模型震后早期参数特征及其地震学意义,地球物理学报,50(6),1778～1786。
刘文兵、马丽,2004,台湾集集和华北大同地震序列的定量模型分析,地震,24(1),155～162。
阮祥、程万正、张永久等,2008,四川长宁盐矿注水诱发地震研究,中国地震,24(3),226～234。
唐荣昌、韩渭宾,1993,四川活动断裂与地震,北京:地震出版社。
魏柏林、郭钦华、李纯清等,1999,论三水地震的成因,中国地震,15(3),247～256。
徐泽奎,1989,罗城地区的地质构造与注水采盐诱发地震,西北地震学报,11(3),96～98。
庄建仓、马丽,2005,主震和余震——从大森公式到ETAS模型,国际地震动态,(5),12～18。
Akaike H.,1974,A new look at the statistical model identification,IEEE Trans Automat Control,AC-19,716～723.
Daley D.J.,D.Vere-Jones,2003,An introduction to the theory of point processes,vol.1,2nd ed.,Springer,New York.
Hainzl S.,Ogata Y.,2005,Detecting fluid signals in seismicity data through statistical earthquake modeling,J.Geophys.Res.,110,doi:10.1029/2004JB003247.
Healy J.H.,Rubey W.W.,Griggs D.T.,et al,1968,The Denver earthquakes,Science,161,1301～1304.
Lei X.L.,Yu G.Z.,Ma S.L.,et al,2008,Earthquake induced by water injection at～3km depth within the Rongchang gasfield,Chongqing,China,J.Geophys.Res.,113,B10310,doi:10.1029/2008JB005604.
Ogata Y.,1983,Estimation of the parameters in the modified Omori formula for aftershock frequencies by the maximum likelihoodprocedure,J.Phys.Earth,31,115～124.
Ogata Y.,1988,Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes,Journal of AmericanStatistical Association,Application,83(401),9～27.
Ogata Y.,1989,Statistical model for standard seismicity and detection of anomalies by residual analysis,Techtonophysics,169,159～174.
Ogata Y.,1992,Detection of relative quiescence before great earthquakes,through a statistical model,J.Geophys.Res.,97,19845～19871.
Ogata Y.,2005,Detection of anomalous seismicity as a stress change sensor,J.Geophys.Res.,110,B05S06,doi:10.1029/2004JB003245.
Omori F.,1984,On the aftershocks of earthquake,J.Coll.Sci.Imp.Univ.Tokyo,7,111～200.
Segall P.,1989,Earthquakes triggered by fluid extraction,Geology,17(10),942～946.
Utsu T.,1961,A statistical study on the occurrence of aftershocks,Geophys.Mag.,30,526～605.
Utsu T.,1970,Aftershocks and earthquake statistics(Ⅱ)-Further investigation of aftershocks and other earthquake sequencesbased on a new classification of earthquake sequences,J.Fac.Sci.Hokkaido Univ.,Sev.Ⅶ,3,197～266.
Utsu,T.,Ogata Y.,1997,Statistical Analysis of point processes for Seismicity(SASeis),IASPEI Software Library,vol.6,pp.13～94,Int.Assoc.of Seismol.and Phys.of Earth's Inter.,Trieste,Italy.
Woessner J.,S.Wiemer,2005,Assessing the quality of earthquake catalogues:estimating the magnitude of completeness and itsuncertainly,Bull.Seismol.Soc.Am.,95,no.2,doi10.1785/0120040007.
Yerkers R.F.,Castle R.O.,1976,Seismicity and faulting attributable to fluid extraction,Engineering Geology,10(24),151～167.
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