PSHA模型的算法改进与中国地区未来地震概率评估

英文篇名：Probability Estimation of Future Earthquakes in China Based on Improved PSHA Model
中文刊名：武汉大学学报(信息科学版)
英文刊名：Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University
作者：路志越 ; F.Benjamin Zhan ; 鄂栋臣
英文作者：LU Zhiyue1 F.Benjamin ZHAN2 E Dongchen1(1 Chinese Antarctic Center of Surveying and Mapping ; Wuhan University ; 129Luoyu Road ; Wuhan 430079 ; China)(2 Department of Geography ; Southwest Texas State University ; San Marcos ; TX 78666 ; USA)
中文关键词：地震概率评估 ; 大震预测 ; 改进的PSHA模型
英文关键词：seismic rate estimation ; earthquakes forecasting ; improved PSHA model
出版日期：2013-03-05
机构：武汉大学中国南极测绘研究中心;德克萨斯州立大学圣马克思分校地理系;
年：2013
期：03
出版单位：武汉大学学报(信息科学版)

摘要

考虑到PSHA模型对未来地震预测特别是大震预测能起到很好的参考分析作用,尝试结合能量分布模型对其进行了改进,并以中国及周边地区200a内的地震历史记录为基础,利用原始PSHA模型以及改进后的PSHA模型分别计算了中国及邻近地区2000～2010年间5级以上地震发生的概率,并对两种结果进行了比较分析,最终证明改进后的PSHA模型具有更好的可靠性。
Considering the importance of PSHA model in earthquakes forecasting,by usingthe catalog in the 200years in China,we tried to improve the original PSHA model withcombining seismic energy distribution model,and computed the probability of earthquakes ina specific area in China with time-span Tbased on both the improved PSHA model and the original model.Finally the experimental results show that the improved model is more efficiency and reliable than the original one.

引文

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