基于震中烈度的地震人员伤亡评估方法研究
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摘要
系统总结了地震造成的人员伤亡的估算方法,以我国1990-2006年间造成人员伤亡的破坏性地震为数据样本,结合国内几次大地震的震害资料,找出了影响人员伤亡的主要因素,经过函数拟合与回归分析,提出了一个以震中烈度为主要参数,以震级和人口密度作为辅助参数进行修正的人员伤亡预测模型,并利用已有的地震实例进行了模型检验,证明其具有较好的精确性和可靠性。
In this paper,the existing methods for the evaluation of seismic casualty were reviewed.The earthquake casualties' data of China from 1990 to 2006 were collected as samples.Combined these data with several representative destructive earthquakes' data of China,the main influence factor of earthquake casualty was found out.By function fitting and regression analysis,an earthquake casualty assessment model was put forward,with the epicentral intensity as the key factor and the magnitude and population density as the secondary factors to improve the assessment results calculated from the key factor.Finally,the assessment method presented in this paper is validated by comparing the evaluation results with the real earthquake casualties' data.
In this paper,the existing methods for the evaluation of seismic casualty were reviewed.The earthquake casualties' data of China from 1990 to 2006 were collected as samples.Combined these data with several representative destructive earthquakes' data of China,the main influence factor of earthquake casualty was found out.By function fitting and regression analysis,an earthquake casualty assessment model was put forward,with the epicentral intensity as the key factor and the magnitude and population density as the secondary factors to improve the assessment results calculated from the key factor.Finally,the assessment method presented in this paper is validated by comparing the evaluation results with the real earthquake casualties' data.
引文
[1]黄信,李忠献,丁阳.我国村镇房屋抗震设计分析与研究[C]∥清华大学:第六届全国土木工程研究生学术论坛,2008:142-146.HUANG Xin,LI Zhongxian,DING Yang.Study and analyze on earthquake resisting design of town and village building in our country[C]∥Tsin-ghua University:The 6th National Civil Engineering Forum for Graduate Students,2008:142-146.(in Chinese)
[2]尹之潜等.中国地震灾害损失预测[M].北京:地震出版社,1990:1-5.YIN Zhiqian.Prediction of Seismic Losses in China[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press of China,1990:1-5.(in Chinese)
[3]吴昊昱.地震死亡人数的分布与震后快速估计的方法研究[D].北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所,2009:8-12.WU Haoyu.Research on Distribution of Earthquake Death Toll and Approach to Rapid Estimation After an Earthquake[D].Beijing:Institute ofGeophysics China Earthquake Administration.2009:8-12.(in Chinese)
[4]诸井孝文,宫村正光.地震人员伤亡预测与研究现状[R].许晏萍译,李学良校北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所译文:99DC2005,1997.Xu Yanping.Li Xueliang.State of the Art for Research and Estimation on Earthquake Casualty[R].Beijing:Institute of Geophysics China Earth-quake Administration.1997.(in Chinese)
[5]Lomnitz C.Casualties and behavior of populations during earthquakes[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.1970,60(4):1309-1313.
[6]Samardjieva E,Oike K.Modeling the number of casualties from earthquake[J].Journal of Natural Disaster Science,1992,14(1):17～28.
[7]肖光先.地震工程中的经济问题[J].世界地震工程,1986,1:3-10.XIAO Guangxian.Economic questions in earthquake engineering[J].World Earthquake Engineering,1986,1:3-10.(in Chinese)
[8]肖光先.震后损失快速评估[J].灾害学,1991,6(4):12-17.XIAO Guangxian.Fast loss assessment after earthquake[J].Journal of Catastrophology,1991,6(4):12-17.(in Chinese)
[9]程家喻,杨喆.唐山地震人员震亡率与房屋倒塌率的相关分析[J].地震地质,1993,15(1):82-87.CHENG Jiayu.YANG Zhe.Regression analysisi of mortality and the ratio of collapsing houses by Tangshan earthquake[J].Seismology and Geolo-gy.1993,15(1):82-87.(in Chinese)
[10]尹之潜.地震灾害及损失预测方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1995:20-25.YIN Zhiqian.Earthquake Disaster and Estimation Method for Earthquake Losses[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press of China,1995:20-25.(inChinese)
[11]傅征祥,李革平.地震生命损失研究[M].北京:地震出版社,1993:100-102.FU zhengxiang.LI Geping.Research on Earthquake Life Losses[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press of China,1993:100-102.(in Chinese)
[12]赵振东,郑向远,钟江荣.地震人员伤亡的动态评估[J].地震工程与工程振动,1999,19(4):149-156.ZHAO Zhendong,ZHEN Xiangyuan,ZHONG Jiangrong.Dynamic method of assessing seismic casualties[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engi-neering Vibration,1999,19(4):149～156.(in Chinese)
[13]马玉宏,谢礼立.地震人员伤亡估算方法研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,2000,20(4):140～147.MA Yuhong.XIE Lili.Methologies for assessment of earthquake casualty[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2000,20(4):140～147.(in Chinese)
[14]李帆,佟晓君,苏幼坡.城市地震伤亡人数的概率预测模型[J].河北理工学院学报,2001,23(3):81-85.LI Fan,TONG Xiaojun,SU Youpo.A probability forecast model of an earthquake stricken city[J].Journal of Hebei Institute of Technology,2001,23(3):81-85.(in Chinese)
[15]杨天青,姜立新,杨桂岭.地震人员伤亡快速评估[J],地震地磁观测与研究,2006,27(4):39-43.YANG Tianqing,JIANG Lixin,Yang Guiling.A study earthquake casualty rapid estimation[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation andResearch.2006,27(4):39-43.(in Chinese)
[16]许建东,危福泉,张来泉等.地震人员伤亡与压埋人员评估方法的初步研究[J].地震研究,2008,31(4):382-387.Xu Jiandong,Wei Fuquan,Zhang Laiquan,et al.Preliminary study on evaluating the number of casualties and trapped victims by an earthquake[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2008,31(4):382-387.(in Chinese)
[17]马玉宏,谢礼立.关于地震人员伤亡因素的探讨[J].自然灾害学报.2000,9(3):84-90.MA Yuhong.XIE Lili.A study on factors influencing earthquake casualties[J].Journal of Natural Disasters.2000,9(3):84-90.(in Chinese)
[2]尹之潜等.中国地震灾害损失预测[M].北京:地震出版社,1990:1-5.YIN Zhiqian.Prediction of Seismic Losses in China[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press of China,1990:1-5.(in Chinese)
[3]吴昊昱.地震死亡人数的分布与震后快速估计的方法研究[D].北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所,2009:8-12.WU Haoyu.Research on Distribution of Earthquake Death Toll and Approach to Rapid Estimation After an Earthquake[D].Beijing:Institute ofGeophysics China Earthquake Administration.2009:8-12.(in Chinese)
[4]诸井孝文,宫村正光.地震人员伤亡预测与研究现状[R].许晏萍译,李学良校北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所译文:99DC2005,1997.Xu Yanping.Li Xueliang.State of the Art for Research and Estimation on Earthquake Casualty[R].Beijing:Institute of Geophysics China Earth-quake Administration.1997.(in Chinese)
[5]Lomnitz C.Casualties and behavior of populations during earthquakes[J].Bull.Seism.Soc.Am.1970,60(4):1309-1313.
[6]Samardjieva E,Oike K.Modeling the number of casualties from earthquake[J].Journal of Natural Disaster Science,1992,14(1):17～28.
[7]肖光先.地震工程中的经济问题[J].世界地震工程,1986,1:3-10.XIAO Guangxian.Economic questions in earthquake engineering[J].World Earthquake Engineering,1986,1:3-10.(in Chinese)
[8]肖光先.震后损失快速评估[J].灾害学,1991,6(4):12-17.XIAO Guangxian.Fast loss assessment after earthquake[J].Journal of Catastrophology,1991,6(4):12-17.(in Chinese)
[9]程家喻,杨喆.唐山地震人员震亡率与房屋倒塌率的相关分析[J].地震地质,1993,15(1):82-87.CHENG Jiayu.YANG Zhe.Regression analysisi of mortality and the ratio of collapsing houses by Tangshan earthquake[J].Seismology and Geolo-gy.1993,15(1):82-87.(in Chinese)
[10]尹之潜.地震灾害及损失预测方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1995:20-25.YIN Zhiqian.Earthquake Disaster and Estimation Method for Earthquake Losses[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press of China,1995:20-25.(inChinese)
[11]傅征祥,李革平.地震生命损失研究[M].北京:地震出版社,1993:100-102.FU zhengxiang.LI Geping.Research on Earthquake Life Losses[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press of China,1993:100-102.(in Chinese)
[12]赵振东,郑向远,钟江荣.地震人员伤亡的动态评估[J].地震工程与工程振动,1999,19(4):149-156.ZHAO Zhendong,ZHEN Xiangyuan,ZHONG Jiangrong.Dynamic method of assessing seismic casualties[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engi-neering Vibration,1999,19(4):149～156.(in Chinese)
[13]马玉宏,谢礼立.地震人员伤亡估算方法研究[J].地震工程与工程振动,2000,20(4):140～147.MA Yuhong.XIE Lili.Methologies for assessment of earthquake casualty[J].Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2000,20(4):140～147.(in Chinese)
[14]李帆,佟晓君,苏幼坡.城市地震伤亡人数的概率预测模型[J].河北理工学院学报,2001,23(3):81-85.LI Fan,TONG Xiaojun,SU Youpo.A probability forecast model of an earthquake stricken city[J].Journal of Hebei Institute of Technology,2001,23(3):81-85.(in Chinese)
[15]杨天青,姜立新,杨桂岭.地震人员伤亡快速评估[J],地震地磁观测与研究,2006,27(4):39-43.YANG Tianqing,JIANG Lixin,Yang Guiling.A study earthquake casualty rapid estimation[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation andResearch.2006,27(4):39-43.(in Chinese)
[16]许建东,危福泉,张来泉等.地震人员伤亡与压埋人员评估方法的初步研究[J].地震研究,2008,31(4):382-387.Xu Jiandong,Wei Fuquan,Zhang Laiquan,et al.Preliminary study on evaluating the number of casualties and trapped victims by an earthquake[J].Journal of Seismological Research,2008,31(4):382-387.(in Chinese)
[17]马玉宏,谢礼立.关于地震人员伤亡因素的探讨[J].自然灾害学报.2000,9(3):84-90.MA Yuhong.XIE Lili.A study on factors influencing earthquake casualties[J].Journal of Natural Disasters.2000,9(3):84-90.(in Chinese)
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