河北廊坊地区的设定地震灾害评估
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摘要
本文对1700年以来的历史地震烈度资料进行了分析,并结合地震地质资料来确定设定地震(Scenario Earthquake),然后利用模拟强地面运动确定了廊坊地区的强地面运动灾害。研究结果表明,按照目前的地震活动趋势,廊坊地区出现大于或等于地震烈度8度的周期大约是600年。也就是说,在未来50年廊坊地区出现地震烈度8度的超越概率为8%。为此,本文建议廊坊地区应该考虑0.3g峰值加速度(Ⅷ度)作为基本地震工程设计参数。
This paper attempts to analyze the data from 1700-year intensity observation,and to combine seismology and geology data to determine the scenario earthquake,then to simulate strong ground motion to evaluate seismic hazard in Langfang.The study results show that the period of greater than or equal to Ⅷ intensity is about 600 years according to the current seismic activity trend.In other words,the probability of exceedance of Ⅷ intensity in 50 years is 8 percent in Langfang area.We suggest that it should be considered 0.3g peak ground acceleration(Ⅷ intensity) as the basic earthquake engineering design parameters in Langfang area.
This paper attempts to analyze the data from 1700-year intensity observation,and to combine seismology and geology data to determine the scenario earthquake,then to simulate strong ground motion to evaluate seismic hazard in Langfang.The study results show that the period of greater than or equal to Ⅷ intensity is about 600 years according to the current seismic activity trend.In other words,the probability of exceedance of Ⅷ intensity in 50 years is 8 percent in Langfang area.We suggest that it should be considered 0.3g peak ground acceleration(Ⅷ intensity) as the basic earthquake engineering design parameters in Langfang area.
引文
1北京市地震局,中国地震局地质研究所,2007.北京市活动断层探测与地震危险性评价工程技术报告.
2河北省工程地震勘察研究院,2010.河北省城市地震活断层探测与地震危险性评价项目(廊坊).
陈厚群,李敏,石玉成,2005.基于设定地震的重大工程场地设计反应谱的确定方法.水利学报,36(12):1399—1404.
邓起东,于贵华,叶文华,1992.地震地表破裂参数与震级关系的研究.见:国家地震局地质研究所编,活动断裂研究(2).北京:地震出版社,247—264.
高孟潭,肖和平,燕为民等,2008.中强地震活动地区地震区划重要性及关键技术进展.震灾防御技术,3(1):1—7.
刘静伟,王振明,谢富仁,2010.京津唐地区地震灾害和危险性评估.地球物理学报,53(2):318—325.
龙锋,闻学泽,徐锡伟,2006.华北地区地震活断层的震级-破裂长度、破裂面积的经验关系.地震地质,28(4):511—535.
潘波,许建东,刘启方,2009.1679年三河-平谷8级地震近断层强地震动的有限元模拟.地震地质,31(1):69—83.
冉勇康,邓起东,杨晓平等,1997.1679年三河—平谷8级地震发震断层的古地震及其重复间隔.地震地质,19(3):193—201.
孙武城,李松林,罗力雷,岳华峰,1987.初论华北地区的地壳低速层.地震地质,9(1):17—26.
孙若昧,刘福田,1995.京津唐地区地壳结构与强震的发生——Ⅰ.P波速度结构.地球物理学报,38(5):599—607.
孙若昧,赵燕来,吴丹,1996.京津唐地区地壳结构与强震的发生——Ⅱ.S波速度结构.地球物理学报,39(3):347—355.
张翠然,陈厚群,李敏,2010.基于NGA衰减关系的坝址设定地震研究.中国水利水电科学研究院学报,8(1):1—10.
郑建常,顾瑾平,张元生,2007.联合反演研究华北地区三维速度结构.地球物理学进展,22(6):1706—1714.
Cornell C.A.,1968.Engineering seismic risk analysis.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,58:1583—1606.
Krinitzsky E.L.,1995.Deterministic versus probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for critical structures.EngineeringGeology,40:1—7.
Krinitzsky E.L.,2002.How to obtain earthquake ground motions for engineering design.Engineering Geology,65:1—16.
Macpherson K.,2009.Long-Period Ground Motions in the Upper Mississippi Embayment from Finite-Fault,Finite-Difference Simulations.The Graduate School,University of Kentucky,Lexington,Ky.
McGuire R.K.,2004.Seismic hazard and risk analysis.Earthquake Engineering Research Institute,MNO-10,P240.
Milne W.G.and Davenport A.G.,1969.Distribution of earthquake risk in Canada.Bulletin of the SeismologicalSociety of America,59:729—754.
Petersen M.D.,Frankel A.D.,Harmsen S.C.,Mueller C.S.,Haller K.M.,Wheeler R.L.,Wesson R.L.,Zeng Y.,BoydO.S.,Perkins D.M.,Luco N.,Field E.H.,Wills C.J.and Rukstales K.S.,2008.Documentation for the2008updateof the United States national seismic hazard maps.U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report08-1128,P60.
Stein S.and Wysession M.,2002.An Introduction to Seismology.Earthquakes and Earth Structure,BlackwellPublishing,P266,269.
Wang Z.,2011.Seismic hazard assessment:issues and alternatives.Pure and Applied Geophysics,168:11—25.
Wang Z.,2009.Seismic hazard vs.seismic risk.Seismological Research Letters,80:673—674.
Xie F.,Wang Z.and Liu J.,2011.Seismic hazard and risk assessments for Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan,China area.Pure and Applied Geophysics,168(3):731—738.
Zeng Y.,Anderson J.G.and Yu G.,1994.A composite model for computing realistic synthetic strong groundmotions.Geophysical Research Letters,21(8):725—728.
2河北省工程地震勘察研究院,2010.河北省城市地震活断层探测与地震危险性评价项目(廊坊).
陈厚群,李敏,石玉成,2005.基于设定地震的重大工程场地设计反应谱的确定方法.水利学报,36(12):1399—1404.
邓起东,于贵华,叶文华,1992.地震地表破裂参数与震级关系的研究.见:国家地震局地质研究所编,活动断裂研究(2).北京:地震出版社,247—264.
高孟潭,肖和平,燕为民等,2008.中强地震活动地区地震区划重要性及关键技术进展.震灾防御技术,3(1):1—7.
刘静伟,王振明,谢富仁,2010.京津唐地区地震灾害和危险性评估.地球物理学报,53(2):318—325.
龙锋,闻学泽,徐锡伟,2006.华北地区地震活断层的震级-破裂长度、破裂面积的经验关系.地震地质,28(4):511—535.
潘波,许建东,刘启方,2009.1679年三河-平谷8级地震近断层强地震动的有限元模拟.地震地质,31(1):69—83.
冉勇康,邓起东,杨晓平等,1997.1679年三河—平谷8级地震发震断层的古地震及其重复间隔.地震地质,19(3):193—201.
孙武城,李松林,罗力雷,岳华峰,1987.初论华北地区的地壳低速层.地震地质,9(1):17—26.
孙若昧,刘福田,1995.京津唐地区地壳结构与强震的发生——Ⅰ.P波速度结构.地球物理学报,38(5):599—607.
孙若昧,赵燕来,吴丹,1996.京津唐地区地壳结构与强震的发生——Ⅱ.S波速度结构.地球物理学报,39(3):347—355.
张翠然,陈厚群,李敏,2010.基于NGA衰减关系的坝址设定地震研究.中国水利水电科学研究院学报,8(1):1—10.
郑建常,顾瑾平,张元生,2007.联合反演研究华北地区三维速度结构.地球物理学进展,22(6):1706—1714.
Cornell C.A.,1968.Engineering seismic risk analysis.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,58:1583—1606.
Krinitzsky E.L.,1995.Deterministic versus probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for critical structures.EngineeringGeology,40:1—7.
Krinitzsky E.L.,2002.How to obtain earthquake ground motions for engineering design.Engineering Geology,65:1—16.
Macpherson K.,2009.Long-Period Ground Motions in the Upper Mississippi Embayment from Finite-Fault,Finite-Difference Simulations.The Graduate School,University of Kentucky,Lexington,Ky.
McGuire R.K.,2004.Seismic hazard and risk analysis.Earthquake Engineering Research Institute,MNO-10,P240.
Milne W.G.and Davenport A.G.,1969.Distribution of earthquake risk in Canada.Bulletin of the SeismologicalSociety of America,59:729—754.
Petersen M.D.,Frankel A.D.,Harmsen S.C.,Mueller C.S.,Haller K.M.,Wheeler R.L.,Wesson R.L.,Zeng Y.,BoydO.S.,Perkins D.M.,Luco N.,Field E.H.,Wills C.J.and Rukstales K.S.,2008.Documentation for the2008updateof the United States national seismic hazard maps.U.S.Geological Survey Open-File Report08-1128,P60.
Stein S.and Wysession M.,2002.An Introduction to Seismology.Earthquakes and Earth Structure,BlackwellPublishing,P266,269.
Wang Z.,2011.Seismic hazard assessment:issues and alternatives.Pure and Applied Geophysics,168:11—25.
Wang Z.,2009.Seismic hazard vs.seismic risk.Seismological Research Letters,80:673—674.
Xie F.,Wang Z.and Liu J.,2011.Seismic hazard and risk assessments for Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan,China area.Pure and Applied Geophysics,168(3):731—738.
Zeng Y.,Anderson J.G.and Yu G.,1994.A composite model for computing realistic synthetic strong groundmotions.Geophysical Research Letters,21(8):725—728.
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