汶川地震前后四川区域GPS时序特征演变及统计分析
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摘要
为探索地震事件对GPS坐标时间序列的长周期影响,对汶川地震前后四川GPS观测网络长约10年的解算成果进行了多参数模型噪声特征分析.基于最大似然估计方法和频谱特性分析,提取了地震前后各测站坐标序列中的噪声分量,使用Λ-统计检验,得出"白噪声+闪烁噪声"模型可以作为四川GPS区域观测网络的最优噪声组合模型,同时,地震事件使得地震前后GPS噪声分量中的白噪声、闪烁噪声、随机游走噪声等发生显著改变,说明传统谱噪声分析中简单地将地震数据拼接在一起并进行统一处理的模式并不可取;使用共模误差分析方法、区域速度场变化趋势等信息对地震前后噪声模型的改变成因进行了初步的物理解析.
In order to explore the long-term influence of seismic event on the GPS time series,10yr long processing results from Sichuan GPS network were used for the multi-parameter noise model analysis.Based on the Maximum Likelihood Estimator method and spectrum analysis,the noise components in the station coordinate time series were extracted,and through Λ-statistic test,we found 'white noise+flicker noise' is the best combination that can best fit the Sichuan local area network,meanwhile,an apparent variation in the noise component of GPS,including white noise,flicker noise,and random walk noise,occurred before and after the seismic event,which demonstrates that the traditional processing mode which simply splice and resolve the preseismic and postseismi data together is unacceptable.The common mode error analytical method and velocity variation information were all used for the initial physical interpretation of such apparent noise component change.
In order to explore the long-term influence of seismic event on the GPS time series,10yr long processing results from Sichuan GPS network were used for the multi-parameter noise model analysis.Based on the Maximum Likelihood Estimator method and spectrum analysis,the noise components in the station coordinate time series were extracted,and through Λ-statistic test,we found 'white noise+flicker noise' is the best combination that can best fit the Sichuan local area network,meanwhile,an apparent variation in the noise component of GPS,including white noise,flicker noise,and random walk noise,occurred before and after the seismic event,which demonstrates that the traditional processing mode which simply splice and resolve the preseismic and postseismi data together is unacceptable.The common mode error analytical method and velocity variation information were all used for the initial physical interpretation of such apparent noise component change.
引文
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[14]Kedall S M,Stuart A.The Advanced Theory of Statistics,vol.2,Inference and Relationship.London:Charles Griffin,1979:240-274.
[2]Zhang J,Bock Y,Johnson H,et al.Southern Californiapermanent GPS geodetic array:Error analysis of dailyposition estimates and site velocities.J.Geophys.Res.,1997,102(B8):18035-18055.
[3]Mao A L,Harrison C G A,Dixon T H.Noise in GPScoordinate time series.J.Geophys.Res.,1999,104(B2):2797-2816,.
[4]Calais E.Continuous GPS measurements across the westernAlps,1994-1998.Geophys.J.Int.,1999,138(1):221-230,.
[5]Bock Y,Nikolaidis R M,de Jongp P J,et al.Instantaneousgeodetic positioning at medium distances with the GolbalPositioning System.J.Geophys.Res.,2000,105(B12):28223-28253.
[6]Johnson H,Agnew D C.Monument motion and measurements ofcrustal velocities.Geophys.Res.Lett.,1995,22(21):2905-2908.
[7]Johnson H,Agnew D C.Correlated noise in the geodetictime series,U.S.Geol.Surv.Final Tech.Rep.,2000.
[8]Williams S D P,Bock Y,Fang P,et al.Error analysis ofcontinuous GPS position time series.J.Geophys.Res.,2004,109:B03412,doi:10.1029/2003JB002741.
[9]Williams S D P.The effect of coloured noise on theuncertainties of rates estimated from geodetic time series.J.Geodesy,2003,76(9-10):483-494.
[10]Press W H,Teukolsky S A,Vetterling W T,et al.Numerical Recipes in C(2nd ed).New York:CambridgeUniversity Press,1992:818.
[11]Williams S D P.Create and Analyse Time Series:CATSsoftware V3.1.1.GPS Solutions,2005.
[12]Wdowinski S,Bock Y,Zhang J,et al.Southern Californiapermanent GPS geodetic array:Spatial filtering of dailypositions for estimating coseismic and postseismic displacementsinduced by the 1992Landers earthquake.J.Geophys.Res.,1997,102(B8):18057-18070.
[13]Bock Y,Wdowinski S,Fang P,et al.Southern Californiapermanent GPS geodetic array:Continuous measurements ofcrustal deformation between the 1992 Landers and 1994Northridge earthquakes.J.Geophys.Res.,1997,108(B8):18013-18033.
[14]Kedall S M,Stuart A.The Advanced Theory of Statistics,vol.2,Inference and Relationship.London:Charles Griffin,1979:240-274.
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