昆仑山地震亚区地震趋势建模探讨
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摘要
按照中国大陆及邻近地区活动地块和地震区带的研究成果,选择昆仑山地震亚区为研究单元,提取研究单元1970年以来半年极大值地震。该极值地震资料具有地质单元一致的特征,也代表研究单元地震趋势水平的变化。极值地震具正态分布特征,使用7阶高斯函数模型,对资料进行最佳逼近拟合,模型中参数用最小二乘法求取,递推未来1~2年时间进行地震趋势探讨。引用定量方法探讨有关研究单元的地震趋势值得深入研究。
According to research on seismic region and belt in China and adjacent areas,as the study object to the Kunlun Mountains sub-seismic region,extracted extreme earthquakes occurred in each semi-year since the year of 1970. The data,with consistent feature of geological membership,acted on the behalf of earthquake trend changes of the research unit. As for extreme earthquakes showing characteristics of normal distribution,applied 7-level Gauss model on the data to do fitting optimally using least square method,and explored the earthquake trend in the future next 1 ~ 2 years. It is worthy of further study on the relative seismic region or belt to adopt quantitative methods for seismic trend.
According to research on seismic region and belt in China and adjacent areas,as the study object to the Kunlun Mountains sub-seismic region,extracted extreme earthquakes occurred in each semi-year since the year of 1970. The data,with consistent feature of geological membership,acted on the behalf of earthquake trend changes of the research unit. As for extreme earthquakes showing characteristics of normal distribution,applied 7-level Gauss model on the data to do fitting optimally using least square method,and explored the earthquake trend in the future next 1 ~ 2 years. It is worthy of further study on the relative seismic region or belt to adopt quantitative methods for seismic trend.
引文
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[2]薛丁,王亮.中国大陆地震趋势数学建模分析[J].高原地震,2008,20(2):1-3.
[3]张培震,邓起东,张国民,等.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J].中国科学,2003,33(增刊):12-20.
[4]胡聿贤.地震安全性评价技术教程[M].北京:地震出版社,2003:65-73.
[5]陆远忠,李胜乐,邓志辉,等.基于GIS的地震分析预报系统[M].成都:成都地图出版社,2002.
[6]中国地震局监测预报司预报管理处.中国强地震目录(公元前23世纪~公元2010年5月)[M].北京:地震出版社,2010:1-280.
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