生命线系统地震灾害损失评估方法研究
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摘要
系统总结了生命系统地震灾害损失评估研究的发展过程,以我国1990-2006年间破坏性地震灾害损失评估数据为样本,结合国内近几年的地震震害资料,采用震害经验统计法分别给出了基于震中烈度、震级和震中烈度与震级结合为指标的3种评估方法。首先通过数理统计确定了不同烈度下生命线系统与建筑物之间的地震直接经济损失之比的算术平均值及其概率分布模型,并给出了特定超越概率下的推荐取值;其次利用最小二乘拟合法建立了生命线系统与建筑物之间的地震直接经济损失之比与震级之间的函数关系;最后通过震级的变化体现各烈度区面积的差异,对基于震中烈度的方法进行了改进。
The existing methods for seismic loss evaluation of lifeline engineering were reviewed.With samples of earthquake loss assessment data of China from 1990 to 2006 and data about several representative destructive earthquakes occurred in China in recent years,three assessment methods based on epicentral intensity,magnitude and epicentral intensity respectively combined with magnitude were derived using seismic experience statistics method.First,the arithmetic mean and its probability distribution model of the ratio of the loss of lifeline system to that of buildings under different epicentral intensities were determined by mathematical statistics method,and the recommend ratio was presented for a given probability of exceedance.Then the functional relationship of the ratio of direct seismic economic loss between lifeline system and buildings to earthquake magnitude were developed by least squares fitting method.Last,through the difference of areas with different intensities reflected by the variation of magnitude,the method based on the epicentral intensity was improved.
The existing methods for seismic loss evaluation of lifeline engineering were reviewed.With samples of earthquake loss assessment data of China from 1990 to 2006 and data about several representative destructive earthquakes occurred in China in recent years,three assessment methods based on epicentral intensity,magnitude and epicentral intensity respectively combined with magnitude were derived using seismic experience statistics method.First,the arithmetic mean and its probability distribution model of the ratio of the loss of lifeline system to that of buildings under different epicentral intensities were determined by mathematical statistics method,and the recommend ratio was presented for a given probability of exceedance.Then the functional relationship of the ratio of direct seismic economic loss between lifeline system and buildings to earthquake magnitude were developed by least squares fitting method.Last,through the difference of areas with different intensities reflected by the variation of magnitude,the method based on the epicentral intensity was improved.
引文
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[11]郭恩栋,刘如山,孙柏涛.地下管线工程地震破坏等级划分标准[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(4):86-90.GUO Endong,LIU Rushan,SUN Baitao.Gradation criterion of earthquake damage to buried pipeline engineering[J].Journal of Natural Disas-ters,2007,16(4):86-90.(in Chinese)
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[15]尹力峰,马世贵,唐丽华,等.震害预测中生命线工程网络的图形简化[J].内陆地震,2006,17(4):326-331.YIN Lifeng,MA Shigui,TANG Lihua,et al.Graph simplification of lifeline engineering network in seismic hazard prediction[J].Inland Earth-quake,2006,17(4):326-331.(in Chinese)
[16]白广斌.基于GIS的城市生命线震害预测系统应用研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2007.BAI Guangbin.An Predicting Earthquake Disaster System of Urban Lifeline Research Based on GIS[D].Dalian:Journal of Dalian University ofTechnology,2007.(in Chinese)
[17]周光全,谭文红,施伟华,等.云南生命线工程及水工结构的地震灾害损失研究[J].灾害学,2005,20(1):90-95.ZHOU Guangquan,TAN Wenhong,SHI Weihua,et al.Study on Earthquake Losses of Lifeline Engineering and Hydro-structure in Yunnan[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2005,20(1):90-95.(in Chinese)
[18]国家地震局,国家统计局.中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编(1990～1995年)[M].北京:地震出版社,1996.China Earthquake Administration,National Bureau of Statistics of China.List of Earthquake Disaster Loss Evaluations in Mainland of China(1990～1995)[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press,1996.(in Chinese)
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[20]中国地震局震灾应急救援司.2001～2005年中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编[M].北京:地震出版社,2010.Earthquake Emergency Rescue Department of China Earthquake Administration.List of Earthquake Disaster Loss Evaluations in Mainland of Chi-na(1996～2000)[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press,2001.(in Chinese)
[21]袁一凡.四川汶川8.0级地震损失评估[J].地震工程与工程振动,2008,28(5):11-19.YUAN Yifan.Loss assessment of Wenchuan Earthquake[J].Journal of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2008,28(5):11-19.(in Chinese)
[2]李杰,生命线工程的研究进展与发展趋势[J].土木工程学报,2001,39(1):1-6.LI Jie.The progress in lifeline engineering researches[J].China Civil Engineering Journal,2001,39(1):1-6.(in Chinese)
[3]裴宗厂,刘尧兴,王晓青.生命线系统工程震害预测[J].西北地震学报,2005,27(增刊):48-52.PEI Zongchang,LIU Yaoying,WANG,Xiaoqing.Earthquake damage prediction of lifeline engineering system[J].Northwest Seismological Jour-nal,2005,27(S):48-52(in Chinese)
[4]李宏男,柳春光.生命线工程系统减灾研究趋势与展望[J].大连理工大学学报,2005,45(6):931-936.LI Hongnan,LIU Chunguang.Trends and prospects for research on disaster mitigation in lifeline engineering system[J].Journal of Dalian Univer-sity of Technology,2005,45(6):931-936.(in Chinese)
[5]汤爱平,欧进萍,董莹.生命线系统的震害特征及其对震后应急反应的影响[J].世界地震工程,2000,16(1):84-88.TANG Aiping.OU Jinping,DONG Ying.The earthquake disaster characteristics of lifeline system and its effect on post-earthquake emergencyresponse[J].World Information on Earthquake Engineering,2000,16(1):84-88.(in Chinese)
[6]孙尧.生命线工程震害损失评估及抗震减灾对策研究[D].重庆:重庆大学,2001.SUN Yao.Study on the Loss Assessment of the Lifeline Engineering After Earthquake and the Countermeasures for Reducing Seismic Damage[D].Chongqing:Chongqing University,Master Dissertation,2001.(in Chinese)
[7]周神根,王天威,杨春环.铁路桥梁震害简易预测法[M].开封:河南科学技术出版社,1988.ZHOU Shengen,WANG Tianwei,YANG Chunhuan.Seismic Damage Prediction Method of Railway Bridges[M].Kaifeng:Henan science andtechnology press,1988.(in Chinese)
[8]朱美珍.公路桥梁震害预测的实用方法[J].同济大学学报,1994,22(3):279-283.ZHU Meizhen.A practical method for predicting seismic damage of highway bridges[J].Journal of Tongji University,1994,22(3):279-283.(in Chinese)
[9]郭恩栋,冯启民,王东升,等.生命线工程震害损失快速评估方法及软件研究[J].世界地震工程,1998,14(3):1-5.GUO Endong,FENG Qimin,WANG Dongshen,et al.Research on fast evaluation method of earthquake damage and loss of lifeline engineering andthe software[J].World Information on Earthquake Engineering,1998,14(3):1-5.(in Chinese)
[10]郭恩栋,冯启民,高惠瑛,等.生命线工程震害损失快速评估系统[J].世界地震工程,2000,16(3):17-21.GUO Endong,FENG Qimin,GAO Huiying,et al.Fast evaluation system for earthquake damage and loss of lifeline engineering[J].World Infor-mation on Earthquake Engineering,2000,16(3):17-21.(in Chinese)
[11]郭恩栋,刘如山,孙柏涛.地下管线工程地震破坏等级划分标准[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(4):86-90.GUO Endong,LIU Rushan,SUN Baitao.Gradation criterion of earthquake damage to buried pipeline engineering[J].Journal of Natural Disas-ters,2007,16(4):86-90.(in Chinese)
[12]冯启民,高惠瑛,张伟林.天津开发区供水系统地震反应分析[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(4):39-44.FENG Qimin,GAO Huiying,ZHANG Weilin.Seismic performance analysis of water delivery systems in Tianjin Economic Developed Area[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2000,9(4):39-44.(in Chinese)
[13]张凤华,谢礼立.生命线系统对城市地震灾害损失评价研究[J].土木工程学报,2003,36(11):99-105.ZHANG Fenghua,XIE Lili.Study on estimation of earthquake disaster losses caused by disruption of lifeline service[J].China Civil EngineeringJournal,2003,36(11):99-105.(in Chinese)
[14]汤爱平,郭明珠,欧进萍,等.生命线系统相互作用下的震害预测方法[J].土木工程学报,2005,38(8):49-55.TANG Aiping,GUO Mingzhu,OU Jinping,et al.A method of earthquake damage forecasting for lifeline system with interactions[J].China Civ-il Engineering Journal,2005,38(8):49-55.(in Chinese)
[15]尹力峰,马世贵,唐丽华,等.震害预测中生命线工程网络的图形简化[J].内陆地震,2006,17(4):326-331.YIN Lifeng,MA Shigui,TANG Lihua,et al.Graph simplification of lifeline engineering network in seismic hazard prediction[J].Inland Earth-quake,2006,17(4):326-331.(in Chinese)
[16]白广斌.基于GIS的城市生命线震害预测系统应用研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2007.BAI Guangbin.An Predicting Earthquake Disaster System of Urban Lifeline Research Based on GIS[D].Dalian:Journal of Dalian University ofTechnology,2007.(in Chinese)
[17]周光全,谭文红,施伟华,等.云南生命线工程及水工结构的地震灾害损失研究[J].灾害学,2005,20(1):90-95.ZHOU Guangquan,TAN Wenhong,SHI Weihua,et al.Study on Earthquake Losses of Lifeline Engineering and Hydro-structure in Yunnan[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2005,20(1):90-95.(in Chinese)
[18]国家地震局,国家统计局.中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编(1990～1995年)[M].北京:地震出版社,1996.China Earthquake Administration,National Bureau of Statistics of China.List of Earthquake Disaster Loss Evaluations in Mainland of China(1990～1995)[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press,1996.(in Chinese)
[19]中国地震局监测预报司.中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编(1996～2000年)[M].北京:地震出版社,2001.Monitoring and Forecasting Department of China Earthquake Administration.List of Earthquake Disaster Loss Evaluations in Mainland of China(1996～2000)[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press,2001.(in Chinese)
[20]中国地震局震灾应急救援司.2001～2005年中国大陆地震灾害损失评估汇编[M].北京:地震出版社,2010.Earthquake Emergency Rescue Department of China Earthquake Administration.List of Earthquake Disaster Loss Evaluations in Mainland of Chi-na(1996～2000)[M].Beijing:Earthquake Press,2001.(in Chinese)
[21]袁一凡.四川汶川8.0级地震损失评估[J].地震工程与工程振动,2008,28(5):11-19.YUAN Yifan.Loss assessment of Wenchuan Earthquake[J].Journal of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,2008,28(5):11-19.(in Chinese)
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