用博弈评分法评估分析中国年度地震危险区的预测效能
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摘要
自20世纪70年代至今,中国地震局持续召开年度全国地震趋势会商会,对来年中国大陆地区的地震趋势作出综合判断,按照"东部5级、西部6级以上"的目标划定年度地震危险区.因为年度危险区的形状不规则、预测震级不同以及每年发生地震数量有限,难以对其预测效能进行科学、客观的评价,也不利于通过有真正信息增益危险区来积累预测经验.本研究采用新近发展的"博弈评分"(gambling score)方法评估了年度地震危险区预测结果的显著性.博弈评分是利用"参考模型"计算每个危险区预测成功与否的参考概率作为"奖励"标准,根据实际地震对应情况进行加分或减分.采用泊松模型和古登堡/里克特定律作为参考模型,对1990—2003年期间的年度地震危险区的预测效能进行了评估和分析.结果表明,虽然年度预测效能之间的差异较大,但是年度地震危险区预测结果明显优于非均匀泊松模型.这一方面表明年度地震危险区的圈定含有一定的地震前兆信息,得分高的危险区的判定依据将为提高地震预测准确率提供有益信息并积累有效的经验,另一方面也揭示了年度会商结果在前兆观测资料和地震活动背景空间分布知识之间整合的不足,即年度地震危险区的圈定在技术上仍有提高的余地.
The Annual Consultation Meeting on Earthquake Tendency in China is held by the China Earthquake Administration(CEA) in order to provide comprehensive one-year earthquake predictions over most China since 1970s.In particular,this meeting gives a map of several alarmed regions which are marked as having high probabilities of large earthquakes(usually M≥6.0 in the western part and M≥5.0 in the eastern part of China).Because these earthquake predictions are made on arbitrary regions with flexible magnitude ranges,it is rather difficult to evaluate their performance objectively and to accumulate prediction experiences from effective predictions.In the present study,the gambling score is used to evaluate the performance of these earthquake predictions.Based on a reference model,this scoring method rewards successful predictions and penalizes failures according to the risk(probability of being failure) that the predictors have taken.Using the Poisson model,which is spatially inhomogeneous and temporally stationary,with the Gutenberg-Richter law for earthquake magnitudes as the reference model,we evaluate the CEA predictions.The performance of predictions made by the Annual Consultation Meetings on Earthquake Tendency from 1990 to 2003 are found significantly better than the reference Poisson model even though the performance varies greatly from year to year.The results show that these predictions include significant precursory information and that the determination of the alarmed regions with high gambling scores provides useful information and experiences for improving earthquake predictions.On the other hand,the CEA predictions are shown to include little knowledge of past seismic activity.A direct technique by which to improve their performance from the nonhomogeneous Poisson model is to incorporate information of the spatial distribution of seismicity rates in the CEA predictions.
The Annual Consultation Meeting on Earthquake Tendency in China is held by the China Earthquake Administration(CEA) in order to provide comprehensive one-year earthquake predictions over most China since 1970s.In particular,this meeting gives a map of several alarmed regions which are marked as having high probabilities of large earthquakes(usually M≥6.0 in the western part and M≥5.0 in the eastern part of China).Because these earthquake predictions are made on arbitrary regions with flexible magnitude ranges,it is rather difficult to evaluate their performance objectively and to accumulate prediction experiences from effective predictions.In the present study,the gambling score is used to evaluate the performance of these earthquake predictions.Based on a reference model,this scoring method rewards successful predictions and penalizes failures according to the risk(probability of being failure) that the predictors have taken.Using the Poisson model,which is spatially inhomogeneous and temporally stationary,with the Gutenberg-Richter law for earthquake magnitudes as the reference model,we evaluate the CEA predictions.The performance of predictions made by the Annual Consultation Meetings on Earthquake Tendency from 1990 to 2003 are found significantly better than the reference Poisson model even though the performance varies greatly from year to year.The results show that these predictions include significant precursory information and that the determination of the alarmed regions with high gambling scores provides useful information and experiences for improving earthquake predictions.On the other hand,the CEA predictions are shown to include little knowledge of past seismic activity.A direct technique by which to improve their performance from the nonhomogeneous Poisson model is to incorporate information of the spatial distribution of seismicity rates in the CEA predictions.
引文
[1]孙其政,吴书贵.中国地震监测预报40年.北京:地震出版社,2007:62-63.Sun Q Z,Wu S G.China Earthquake Monitoring andPrediction 40 Years(in Chinese).Beijing:SeismologicalPress,2007:62-63.
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[3]Wu Z L,Liu J,Zhu C Z,et al.Annual consultation on thelikelihood of earthquakes in continental China:Its scientificand practical merits.Earthquake Research in China,2007,21(4):365-371.
[4]朱令人,朱成熹,洪时中等.地震预报效能评价.//国家地震局科技监测司.中国地震预报方法研究.北京:地震出版社,1991:35-45.Zhu L R,Zhu C X,Hong S Z,et al.Evaluation of earthquakeprediction.//Department of Science,Technology,and Monitoring,State Seismological Bureau ed.Study on Earthquake PredictionMethod(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1991:35-45.
[5]郑兆苾,刘杰,李罡风等.全国年度地震重点危险区与地震相关性的统计模拟分析.地震学报,2000,22(5):538-546.Zheng Z B,Liu J,Li G F,et al.Statistical simulationanalysis of the correlation between the annual estimated keyregions with a certain seismic risk and the earthquakes inChina.Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),2000,13(5):575-584.
[6]石耀霖,刘杰,张国民.对我国90年代年度地震预报的评估.中国科学院研究生院学报,2000,17(1):63-69.Shi Y L,Liu J,Zhang G M.The evaluation of Chineseannual earthquake prediction in the 90s.Journal of theGraduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(inChinese),2000,17(1):63-69.
[7]张国民,刘杰,石耀霖.年度地震预报能力的科学评价.地震学报,2002,24(5):525-532.Zhang G M,Liu J,Shi Y L.An scientific evaluation ofannual earthquake prediction ability.Acta SeismologicaSinica(in Chinese),2002,15(5):550-558.
[8]许绍燮.地震预报能力评分.//国家地震局科技监测司编.地震预报方法实用化攻关文集(测震分册).北京:地震出版社,1989:586-589.Xu S X.The evaluation of earthquake prediction ability.//Department of Science,Technology and Monitoring,State.Seismological Bureau ed.The Practical Research Papers onEarthquake Prediction Methods(Seismicity Section)(inChinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1989:586-589.
[9]史勇军,吴忠良,白玲.用皮尔逊检验分析年度地震趋势预测效果.中国科学院研究生院学报,2004,21(2):248-253.Shi Y J,Wu Z L,Bai L.Evaluation of annual prediction ofseismicity tendency using pearson test.Journal of theGraduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(inChinese),2004,21(2):248-253.
[10]Zhuang J C.Gambling scores for earthquake predictions andforecasts.Geophys.J.Int.,2010,181(1):382-390.
[11]Harte D,Vere-Jones D.The entropy score and its uses inearthquake forecasting.Pure Appl.Geophys.,2005,162(6):1229-1253.
[12]Rundle J B,Klein W,Turcotte D L,et al.Precursoryseismic activation and critical-point phenomena.Pure Appl.Geophys.,2000,157(11-12):2165-2182.
[13]Rundle J B,Turcotte D L,Shcherbakov R,et al.Statisticalphysics approach to understanding the multiscale dynamics ofearthquake fault systems.Rev.Geophys.,2003,41:1019,doi:10.1029/2003RG000135.
[14]蒋长胜,吴忠良.对地震预测的一个统计物理算法在川滇地区的回溯性预测检验.中国科学:D辑,2008,38(7):852-861.Jiang C S,Wu Z L.Retrospective forecasting test of astatistical physics model for earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnanregion.Science in China Series D:Earth Sciences(inChinese),2008,51(10):1401-1410,doi:10.1007/s11430-008-0112-6.
[15]Zechar J D,Zhuang J C.Risk and return:evaluating reversetracing of precursors earthquake predictions.Geophys.J.Int.,2010,182:1319-1326.
[16]Shebalin P,Keilis-Borok V,Zaliapin I,et al.Advance short-term prediction of the large Tokachi-oki earthquake,September 25,2003,M=8.1:A case history.Earth PlanetsSpace,2004,56:715-724.
[17]Shebalin P,Zaliapin I,Keilis-Borok V I.Premonitory rise ofthe earthquake′s correlation range:Lesser Antilles.Phys.Earth Planet.Inter.,2000,122:241-249.
[18]Molchan G,Romashkova L.Gambling score in earthquakeprediction analysis.Geophys.J.Int.,2011,184(3):1445-1454.
[19]国家地震局分析预报中心.中国地震趋势预测研究(1990年度).北京:地震出版社,1989.Center for Analysis and Prediction,State Seismology Bureau.China Earthquake Administration.Study on the SeismicTendency in China(for the year 1990)(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1989.
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[23]国家地震局分析预报中心.中国地震趋势预测研究(1994年度).北京:地震出版社,1993.Center for Analysis and Prediction,State Seismology Bureau.Study on the Seismic Tendency in China(for the year 1994)(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1993.
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[27]国家地震局分析预报中心.中国地震趋势预测研究(1998年度).北京:地震出版社,1997.Center for Analysis and Prediction,State Seismology Bureau.Study on the Seismic Tendency in China(for the year 1998)(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1997.
[28]中国地震局分析预报中心.中国地震趋势预测研究(1999年度).北京:地震出版社,1998.Center for Analysis and Prediction,China EarthquakeAdministration.Study on the Seismic Tendency in China(forthe year 1999)(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1998.
[29]中国地震局分析预报中心.中国地震趋势预测研究(2000年度).北京:地震出版社,1999.Center for Analysis and Prediction,China Earthquake Administration.Study on the Seismic Tendency in China(forthe year 2000)(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1999.
[30]中国地震局分析预报中心.中国地震趋势预测研究(2001年度).北京:地震出版社,2000.Center for Analysis and Prediction,China Earthquake Administration.Study on the Seismic Tendency in China(forthe year 2001)(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,2000.
[31]中国地震局分析预报中心.中国地震趋势预测研究(2002年度).北京:地震出版社,2001.Center for Analysis and Prediction,China Earthquake Administration.Study on the Seismic Tendency in China(forthe year 2002)(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,2001.
[32]中国地震局分析预报中心编.中国地震趋势预测研究(2003年度).北京:地震出版社,2002.Center for Analysis and Prediction,China Earthquake Administration.Study on the Seismic Tendency in China(forthe year 2003)(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,2002.
[33]国家地震局震害防御司.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪—公元1911年).北京:地震出版社,1995.Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention,StateSeismological Bureau.The Catalogue of Chinese Historical Strong Earthquakes(in Chinese).Beijing:SeismologicalPress,1995.
[34]中国地震局震害防御司.中国近代地震目录(公元1912—1990MS≥4.7).北京:中国科学技术出版社,1999.Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention,China Earthquake Administration.The Catalogue of Chinese Modern Earthquakes(in Chinese).Beijing:China Science and TechnologyPress,1999.
[35]汪素云,高阿甲,冯义钧等.中国地震目录间的对比及标准化.地震,2010,30(2):38-45.Wang S Y,Gao A J,Feng Y J,et al.Comparison and standardization of the Chinese earthquake catalogs.Earthquake(in Chinese),2010,30(2):38-45.
[2]Wu F T.The annual earthquake prediction conference inChina(National consultative meeting on seismic tendency).Pure Appl.Geophys.,1997,149(1):249-264.
[3]Wu Z L,Liu J,Zhu C Z,et al.Annual consultation on thelikelihood of earthquakes in continental China:Its scientificand practical merits.Earthquake Research in China,2007,21(4):365-371.
[4]朱令人,朱成熹,洪时中等.地震预报效能评价.//国家地震局科技监测司.中国地震预报方法研究.北京:地震出版社,1991:35-45.Zhu L R,Zhu C X,Hong S Z,et al.Evaluation of earthquakeprediction.//Department of Science,Technology,and Monitoring,State Seismological Bureau ed.Study on Earthquake PredictionMethod(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1991:35-45.
[5]郑兆苾,刘杰,李罡风等.全国年度地震重点危险区与地震相关性的统计模拟分析.地震学报,2000,22(5):538-546.Zheng Z B,Liu J,Li G F,et al.Statistical simulationanalysis of the correlation between the annual estimated keyregions with a certain seismic risk and the earthquakes inChina.Acta Seismologica Sinica(in Chinese),2000,13(5):575-584.
[6]石耀霖,刘杰,张国民.对我国90年代年度地震预报的评估.中国科学院研究生院学报,2000,17(1):63-69.Shi Y L,Liu J,Zhang G M.The evaluation of Chineseannual earthquake prediction in the 90s.Journal of theGraduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(inChinese),2000,17(1):63-69.
[7]张国民,刘杰,石耀霖.年度地震预报能力的科学评价.地震学报,2002,24(5):525-532.Zhang G M,Liu J,Shi Y L.An scientific evaluation ofannual earthquake prediction ability.Acta SeismologicaSinica(in Chinese),2002,15(5):550-558.
[8]许绍燮.地震预报能力评分.//国家地震局科技监测司编.地震预报方法实用化攻关文集(测震分册).北京:地震出版社,1989:586-589.Xu S X.The evaluation of earthquake prediction ability.//Department of Science,Technology and Monitoring,State.Seismological Bureau ed.The Practical Research Papers onEarthquake Prediction Methods(Seismicity Section)(inChinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1989:586-589.
[9]史勇军,吴忠良,白玲.用皮尔逊检验分析年度地震趋势预测效果.中国科学院研究生院学报,2004,21(2):248-253.Shi Y J,Wu Z L,Bai L.Evaluation of annual prediction ofseismicity tendency using pearson test.Journal of theGraduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(inChinese),2004,21(2):248-253.
[10]Zhuang J C.Gambling scores for earthquake predictions andforecasts.Geophys.J.Int.,2010,181(1):382-390.
[11]Harte D,Vere-Jones D.The entropy score and its uses inearthquake forecasting.Pure Appl.Geophys.,2005,162(6):1229-1253.
[12]Rundle J B,Klein W,Turcotte D L,et al.Precursoryseismic activation and critical-point phenomena.Pure Appl.Geophys.,2000,157(11-12):2165-2182.
[13]Rundle J B,Turcotte D L,Shcherbakov R,et al.Statisticalphysics approach to understanding the multiscale dynamics ofearthquake fault systems.Rev.Geophys.,2003,41:1019,doi:10.1029/2003RG000135.
[14]蒋长胜,吴忠良.对地震预测的一个统计物理算法在川滇地区的回溯性预测检验.中国科学:D辑,2008,38(7):852-861.Jiang C S,Wu Z L.Retrospective forecasting test of astatistical physics model for earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnanregion.Science in China Series D:Earth Sciences(inChinese),2008,51(10):1401-1410,doi:10.1007/s11430-008-0112-6.
[15]Zechar J D,Zhuang J C.Risk and return:evaluating reversetracing of precursors earthquake predictions.Geophys.J.Int.,2010,182:1319-1326.
[16]Shebalin P,Keilis-Borok V,Zaliapin I,et al.Advance short-term prediction of the large Tokachi-oki earthquake,September 25,2003,M=8.1:A case history.Earth PlanetsSpace,2004,56:715-724.
[17]Shebalin P,Zaliapin I,Keilis-Borok V I.Premonitory rise ofthe earthquake′s correlation range:Lesser Antilles.Phys.Earth Planet.Inter.,2000,122:241-249.
[18]Molchan G,Romashkova L.Gambling score in earthquakeprediction analysis.Geophys.J.Int.,2011,184(3):1445-1454.
[19]国家地震局分析预报中心.中国地震趋势预测研究(1990年度).北京:地震出版社,1989.Center for Analysis and Prediction,State Seismology Bureau.China Earthquake Administration.Study on the SeismicTendency in China(for the year 1990)(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1989.
[20]国家地震局分析预报中心.中国地震趋势预测研究(1991年度).北京:地震出版社,1990.Center for Analysis and Prediction,State Seismology Bureau.Study on the Seismic Tendency in China(for the year 1991)(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1990.
[21]国家地震局分析预报中心.中国地震趋势预测研究(1992年度).北京:地震出版社,1991.Center for Analysis and Prediction,State Seismology Bureau.Study on the Seismic Tendency in China(for the year 1992)(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1991.
[22]国家地震局分析预报中心.中国地震趋势预测研究(1993年度).北京:地震出版社,1992.Center for Analysis and Prediction,State Seismology Bureau.Study on the Seismic Tendency in China(for the year 1993)(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1992.
[23]国家地震局分析预报中心.中国地震趋势预测研究(1994年度).北京:地震出版社,1993.Center for Analysis and Prediction,State Seismology Bureau.Study on the Seismic Tendency in China(for the year 1994)(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1993.
[24]国家地震局分析预报中心.中国地震趋势预测研究(1995年度).北京:地震出版社,1994.Center for Analysis and Prediction,State Seismology Bureau.Study on the Seismic Tendency in China(for the year 1995)(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1994.
[25]国家地震局分析预报中心.中国地震趋势预测研究(1996年度).北京:地震出版社,1995.Center for Analysis and Prediction,State Seismology Bureau.Study on the Seismic Tendency in China(for the year 1996)(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1995.
[26]国家地震局分析预报中心.中国地震趋势预测研究(1997年度).北京:地震出版社,1996.Center for Analysis and Prediction,State Seismology Bureau.Study on the Seismic Tendency in China(for the year 1997)(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1996.
[27]国家地震局分析预报中心.中国地震趋势预测研究(1998年度).北京:地震出版社,1997.Center for Analysis and Prediction,State Seismology Bureau.Study on the Seismic Tendency in China(for the year 1998)(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1997.
[28]中国地震局分析预报中心.中国地震趋势预测研究(1999年度).北京:地震出版社,1998.Center for Analysis and Prediction,China EarthquakeAdministration.Study on the Seismic Tendency in China(forthe year 1999)(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1998.
[29]中国地震局分析预报中心.中国地震趋势预测研究(2000年度).北京:地震出版社,1999.Center for Analysis and Prediction,China Earthquake Administration.Study on the Seismic Tendency in China(forthe year 2000)(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,1999.
[30]中国地震局分析预报中心.中国地震趋势预测研究(2001年度).北京:地震出版社,2000.Center for Analysis and Prediction,China Earthquake Administration.Study on the Seismic Tendency in China(forthe year 2001)(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,2000.
[31]中国地震局分析预报中心.中国地震趋势预测研究(2002年度).北京:地震出版社,2001.Center for Analysis and Prediction,China Earthquake Administration.Study on the Seismic Tendency in China(forthe year 2002)(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,2001.
[32]中国地震局分析预报中心编.中国地震趋势预测研究(2003年度).北京:地震出版社,2002.Center for Analysis and Prediction,China Earthquake Administration.Study on the Seismic Tendency in China(forthe year 2003)(in Chinese).Beijing:Seismological Press,2002.
[33]国家地震局震害防御司.中国历史强震目录(公元前23世纪—公元1911年).北京:地震出版社,1995.Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention,StateSeismological Bureau.The Catalogue of Chinese Historical Strong Earthquakes(in Chinese).Beijing:SeismologicalPress,1995.
[34]中国地震局震害防御司.中国近代地震目录(公元1912—1990MS≥4.7).北京:中国科学技术出版社,1999.Department of Earthquake Disaster Prevention,China Earthquake Administration.The Catalogue of Chinese Modern Earthquakes(in Chinese).Beijing:China Science and TechnologyPress,1999.
[35]汪素云,高阿甲,冯义钧等.中国地震目录间的对比及标准化.地震,2010,30(2):38-45.Wang S Y,Gao A J,Feng Y J,et al.Comparison and standardization of the Chinese earthquake catalogs.Earthquake(in Chinese),2010,30(2):38-45.
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