中国地震灾害损失评估模型与实证分析研究
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摘要
中国是世界上地震灾害多发的国家之一,对强震灾害损失进行准确的评价研究具有重要的经济和社会意义.文章着重对震灾的经济损失方面进行评估,将其分为直接经济损失和间接经济损失2个部分.首先运用K-S检验确定我国年地震损失额的分布函数,并对月地震次数进行拟合,然后运用灰色聚类法和主成分分析法对不同震灾分别进行直接和间接经济损失评级,最后对2006—2009年我国地震所造成的经济损失进行评估,对8次震灾进行综合经济损失评级.
China is one of the countries which have the most earthquake disasters in the world,to evaluate the losses of earthquake therefore has important social and economic value.This paper focuses on the assessment of economic losses of earthquake disasters,which is divided into two parts,namely direct economic loss and indirect economic loss.Firstly,K-S test is used to determine the distribution of the annual earthquake losses in China,and the monthly frequency of earthquake is calculated and fitted.Secondly,grey clustering method and principal component analysis(PCA) are applied for direct economic loss rating and indirect economic loss rating,respectively.Finally,the economic losses due to the earthquakes happened during 2006—2009 in China are evaluated,and eight earthquakes are rated based on the comprehensive economic loss.
China is one of the countries which have the most earthquake disasters in the world,to evaluate the losses of earthquake therefore has important social and economic value.This paper focuses on the assessment of economic losses of earthquake disasters,which is divided into two parts,namely direct economic loss and indirect economic loss.Firstly,K-S test is used to determine the distribution of the annual earthquake losses in China,and the monthly frequency of earthquake is calculated and fitted.Secondly,grey clustering method and principal component analysis(PCA) are applied for direct economic loss rating and indirect economic loss rating,respectively.Finally,the economic losses due to the earthquakes happened during 2006—2009 in China are evaluated,and eight earthquakes are rated based on the comprehensive economic loss.
引文
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[11]徐道一,孙文鹏.歹字型构造体系在地震预测中的应用的关系[J].地质力学学报,2011,17(1):64-73XU Daoyi,SUN Wenpeng.Application of the eta-type tectonic series suggested by LI Siguang to earthquake prediction[J].Journal of Geomechanics,2011,17(1):64-73
[12]徐道一.21世纪初全球巨灾群发期的认识及其预测意义[C]//中国地球物理2010.北京:地震出版社,2010:384-385XU Daoyi.The consideration of the clustering period of great disasters during the beginning of21century and its prediction significance[C]//The Chinese Geophysics2010.Beijing:Seismological Press,2010:384-385
[13]门可佩.青藏北块M≥7强震有序网络结构与汶川8级大震预测回顾[J].中国工程科学,2009,11(6):82-88MEN Kepei.Orderly network structure of M≥7strong earthquakes in the north block of Tibet-Plateau and retrospect of prediction for Wenchuan M8.0earthquake[J].Engineering Sciences,2009,11(6):82-88
[14]任晓菘,凌海梅.建筑物地震保险的若干问题[J].世界地震工程,2006,22(1):99-103REN Xiaosong,LING Haimei.Some problems for earthquake insurance of buildings[J].World Earthquake engineering,2006,22(1):99-103
[15]门可佩.新疆地区M≥7强震有序网络结构及其预测研究[J].南京信息工程大学学报:自然科学版,2012,4(3):270-278MEN Kepei.Ordered network structure of M≥7strong earthquakes and its prediction in Xinjiang[J].Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology:Natural Science Edition,2012,4(3):270-278
[16]门可佩.青藏高原北部地区M≥7强震有序网络结构及其预测研究[J].南京信息工程大学学报:自然科学版,2012,4(4):307-315MEN Kepei.Ordered network structure of M≥7strong earthquakes and its prediction in the northern Tibetan Plateau region[J].Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology:Natural Science Edition,2012,4(4):307-315
[17]门可佩.中国大陆8级大震有序网络结构及其预测研究[J].南京信息工程大学学报:自然科学版,2012,4(5):466-475MEN Kepei.Research on ordered network structure of M≥8great earthquakes and its prediction in Mainland China[J].Journal of Nanjing University of InformationScience&Technology:Natural Science Edition,2012,4(5):466-475
[18]Conover W J.Practical nonparametric statistics[M].3rd Ed.New York:Wiley,1999
[19]刘思峰,党耀国,方志耕,等.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].3版.北京:科学出版社,2004LIU Sifeng,DANG Yaoguo,FANG Zhigeng,et al.Grey system theory and its application[M].3rd Ed.Beijing:Science Press,2004
[20]董奋义,刘俊娟,刘斌.灰色综合聚类法的改进及其在河南省农村经济发展水平评价中的应用[J].农业系统科学与综合研究,2010,26(4):478-483DONG Fenyi,LIU Junjuan,LIU Bin.Improved grey Integrated clustering method and its application in the evaluation to rural economic development of Henan province[J].System Sciences and Comprehensive Studies in Agriculture,2010,26(4):478-483
[21]Anderson T W.An introduction to multivariate statistical analysis[M].2nd Ed.New York:Wiley,1984
[22]Rencher A C.Methods of multivariate analysis[M].New York:Wiley,2002
[23]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴(2007—2010)[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2007—2010National Bureau of Statistics of China.China statistical yearbook[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2007-2010
[24]都昌庭,李文巧,卢宁,等.2006年青海玉树5.0、5.6、5.4级地震灾害损失及震害特点[J].震灾防御技术,2006,1(4):371-377DU Changting,LI Wenqiao,LU Ning,et al.Characteristics of loss and hazards of Yushu earthquakes with M=5.0,5.6and5.4in Qinghai province,2006[J].Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,2006,1(4):371-377
[25]米宏亮,李洋,侯建盛.2007年中国大陆地震灾害损失述评[J].国际地震动态,2008(2):41-45MI Hongliang,LI Yang,HOU Jiansheng.Earthquake disasters in Chinese mainland in2007[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,2008(2):41-45
[26]郑通彦,李洋,侯建盛,等.2008年中国大陆地震灾害损失述评[J].灾害学,2010,25(2):112-118ZHENG Tongyan,LI Yang,HOU Jiansheng,et al.Review on earthquake disaster loss in Chinese mainland in2008[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2010,25(2):112-118
[27]郑通彦,李洋,侯建盛,等.2009年中国大陆地震灾害损失述评[J].灾害学,2010,25(4):96-101ZHENG Tongyan,LI Yang,HOU Jiansheng,et al.A review of earthquake disasters loss in mainland China in2009[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2010,25(4):96-101
[2]尹之潜.地震灾害及损失预测方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1996:201YIN Zhiqian.Prediction methods of earthquake disaster and its losses[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,1996:201
[3]赵阿兴,马宗晋.自然灾害损失评估指标体系的研究[J].自然灾害学报,1993,2(3):1-7ZHAO Axing,MA Zongjin.Appraising study for the loss evaluation system of natural disasters[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,1993,2(3):1-7
[4]于庆东,沈荣芳.自然灾害绝对灾情分级模型及应用[J].系统工程理论方法应用,1995,4(3):47-52YU Qingdong,SHEN Rongfang.An evaluation model of the absolute status of natural disaster and its application[J].Systems Engineeringtheory Methodology Application,1995,4(3):47-52
[5]任鲁川.灾害损失等级划分的模糊灾度判别法[J].自然灾害学报,1996,5(3):13-17REN Luchuan.The measurement method of fuzzy disaster degree for classification of disaster loss[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,1996,5(3):13-17
[6]于庆东,沈荣芳.自然灾害综合灾情分级模型及应用[J].灾害学,1997,12(3):12-17YU Qingdong,SHEN Rongfang.A grading model and its application of the comprehensive situation of natural disaster[J].Journal of Catastrophology,1997,12(3):12-17
[7]毛国敏,顾建华,吴新燕.地震灾害的分类和分级方法研究[J].地震学报,2007,29(4):426-436MAO Guomin,GU Jianhua,WU Xinyan.Method study of classification and gradation of earthquake disasters[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2007,29(4):426-436
[8]常相全,韩静轩,张波.基于因子分析的地震灾害评价指标体系研究[J].统计与决策,2009(7):46-48CHANG Xiangquan,HAN Jingxuan,ZHANG Bo.Re-search on the evaluation of index system of earthquake disasters based on factor analysis method[J].Statistics and Decision,2009(7):46-48
[9]谷莘,常相全,韩静轩.基于神经网络的地震灾害经济损失评价模型[J].统计与决策,2009(10):45-47GU Shen,CHANG Xiangquan,HAN Jingxuan.Research on the evaluation models of economic losses of earth-quake disasters based on neural network method[J].Statistics and Decision,2009(10):45-47
[10]童蕾.地震灾害及决策的灰色模型研究[D].南京:河海大学水利水电工程学院0,2005TONG Lei.Research on the gray model of earthquake disaster and decision making[D].Nanjing:College of Water Conservancy&Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,2005
[11]徐道一,孙文鹏.歹字型构造体系在地震预测中的应用的关系[J].地质力学学报,2011,17(1):64-73XU Daoyi,SUN Wenpeng.Application of the eta-type tectonic series suggested by LI Siguang to earthquake prediction[J].Journal of Geomechanics,2011,17(1):64-73
[12]徐道一.21世纪初全球巨灾群发期的认识及其预测意义[C]//中国地球物理2010.北京:地震出版社,2010:384-385XU Daoyi.The consideration of the clustering period of great disasters during the beginning of21century and its prediction significance[C]//The Chinese Geophysics2010.Beijing:Seismological Press,2010:384-385
[13]门可佩.青藏北块M≥7强震有序网络结构与汶川8级大震预测回顾[J].中国工程科学,2009,11(6):82-88MEN Kepei.Orderly network structure of M≥7strong earthquakes in the north block of Tibet-Plateau and retrospect of prediction for Wenchuan M8.0earthquake[J].Engineering Sciences,2009,11(6):82-88
[14]任晓菘,凌海梅.建筑物地震保险的若干问题[J].世界地震工程,2006,22(1):99-103REN Xiaosong,LING Haimei.Some problems for earthquake insurance of buildings[J].World Earthquake engineering,2006,22(1):99-103
[15]门可佩.新疆地区M≥7强震有序网络结构及其预测研究[J].南京信息工程大学学报:自然科学版,2012,4(3):270-278MEN Kepei.Ordered network structure of M≥7strong earthquakes and its prediction in Xinjiang[J].Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology:Natural Science Edition,2012,4(3):270-278
[16]门可佩.青藏高原北部地区M≥7强震有序网络结构及其预测研究[J].南京信息工程大学学报:自然科学版,2012,4(4):307-315MEN Kepei.Ordered network structure of M≥7strong earthquakes and its prediction in the northern Tibetan Plateau region[J].Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology:Natural Science Edition,2012,4(4):307-315
[17]门可佩.中国大陆8级大震有序网络结构及其预测研究[J].南京信息工程大学学报:自然科学版,2012,4(5):466-475MEN Kepei.Research on ordered network structure of M≥8great earthquakes and its prediction in Mainland China[J].Journal of Nanjing University of InformationScience&Technology:Natural Science Edition,2012,4(5):466-475
[18]Conover W J.Practical nonparametric statistics[M].3rd Ed.New York:Wiley,1999
[19]刘思峰,党耀国,方志耕,等.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].3版.北京:科学出版社,2004LIU Sifeng,DANG Yaoguo,FANG Zhigeng,et al.Grey system theory and its application[M].3rd Ed.Beijing:Science Press,2004
[20]董奋义,刘俊娟,刘斌.灰色综合聚类法的改进及其在河南省农村经济发展水平评价中的应用[J].农业系统科学与综合研究,2010,26(4):478-483DONG Fenyi,LIU Junjuan,LIU Bin.Improved grey Integrated clustering method and its application in the evaluation to rural economic development of Henan province[J].System Sciences and Comprehensive Studies in Agriculture,2010,26(4):478-483
[21]Anderson T W.An introduction to multivariate statistical analysis[M].2nd Ed.New York:Wiley,1984
[22]Rencher A C.Methods of multivariate analysis[M].New York:Wiley,2002
[23]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴(2007—2010)[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2007—2010National Bureau of Statistics of China.China statistical yearbook[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,2007-2010
[24]都昌庭,李文巧,卢宁,等.2006年青海玉树5.0、5.6、5.4级地震灾害损失及震害特点[J].震灾防御技术,2006,1(4):371-377DU Changting,LI Wenqiao,LU Ning,et al.Characteristics of loss and hazards of Yushu earthquakes with M=5.0,5.6and5.4in Qinghai province,2006[J].Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,2006,1(4):371-377
[25]米宏亮,李洋,侯建盛.2007年中国大陆地震灾害损失述评[J].国际地震动态,2008(2):41-45MI Hongliang,LI Yang,HOU Jiansheng.Earthquake disasters in Chinese mainland in2007[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,2008(2):41-45
[26]郑通彦,李洋,侯建盛,等.2008年中国大陆地震灾害损失述评[J].灾害学,2010,25(2):112-118ZHENG Tongyan,LI Yang,HOU Jiansheng,et al.Review on earthquake disaster loss in Chinese mainland in2008[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2010,25(2):112-118
[27]郑通彦,李洋,侯建盛,等.2009年中国大陆地震灾害损失述评[J].灾害学,2010,25(4):96-101ZHENG Tongyan,LI Yang,HOU Jiansheng,et al.A review of earthquake disasters loss in mainland China in2009[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2010,25(4):96-101
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