气温变化对唐山地震台跨断层形变观测的影响
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摘要
利用三维热—弹性模型有限元方法,模拟了唐山地震台及其周边地区在地表温度呈不同幅度的周期性变化的情况下,对台站短基线观测的影响,并对由于地表温度变化产生的应变进行了估算。计算结果表明,由于温度差异造成的观测桩距离的年变化幅度达到2mm左右,这与目前台站观测数据的年变化幅度基本一致,表明台站观测数据包含了温度的重要影响。另外,台站各基线桩的位移序列相对于温度变化滞后了1～1.5个月的时间。同时发现,台站短基线各测段的实际观测数据存在着同步的趋势性变化,这不是稳定年变化的温度变化能解释的,因此这种趋势变化可能与局部应力场调整或者断层活动有关。
The finite element method (FEM) of 3D linear elastic model has been used to calculate the effect of ground temperature variation with different amplitudes to the baseline observation in and around Tangshan seismic station. And the strain induced from the ground temperature variations was also estimated. The results show that the yearly amplitude of the displacement among bench marks induced by the temperature variation can be up to 2mm or so, which is almost the same as that of the yearly variation of the data observed at the station. This means that the effect of the temperature is included in the data. What's more, the displacements among 4 bench marks and their strain serials are delayed about 1 or 1.5 months compared with the temperature changes. At the same time, there are synchronous trend changes in the 4 segments, which cannot be explained from the temperature variation and may be connected with the strain adjustment and/or fault movements.
The finite element method (FEM) of 3D linear elastic model has been used to calculate the effect of ground temperature variation with different amplitudes to the baseline observation in and around Tangshan seismic station. And the strain induced from the ground temperature variations was also estimated. The results show that the yearly amplitude of the displacement among bench marks induced by the temperature variation can be up to 2mm or so, which is almost the same as that of the yearly variation of the data observed at the station. This means that the effect of the temperature is included in the data. What's more, the displacements among 4 bench marks and their strain serials are delayed about 1 or 1.5 months compared with the temperature changes. At the same time, there are synchronous trend changes in the 4 segments, which cannot be explained from the temperature variation and may be connected with the strain adjustment and/or fault movements.
引文
①何世海,2000,定点地壳形变,见:中国地震局人事教育司等,地震分析预报技术骨干培训教材(下),177～220。
曹建玲、石耀霖,2005,地表温度年变化对地应力和地倾斜的影响,中国科学院研究生院学报,22(3),303～308。
黄建平、石耀霖、李文静,2010,从跨断层短基线观测计算地应变的方法探讨——以唐山台地形变数据为例,地球物理学报,53(5),1118～1126。
黄建平、李文静,2011,唐山台短水准、短基线数据的分段特征,地震,31(2),50～58。
胡卫建、张俊山、谢智等,2002,荷载对钻孔应变测值影响的实验及力学解析,地震,22(3),95～104。
金旭、陈晓冬、管彦武,2004,气候变化对浅层地温测量影响的改正,地球学报,25(5),579～582。
李延兴、徐杰、陈聚忠等,2006,邢台、渤海、海城和唐山大地震震中区现今应变场的基本特征,华北地震科学,24(2),36～39。
刘权威,1996,地壳形变干扰因素有效性的判别,测绘学报,25(2),95～103。
卢良玉、徐心同、马秉圭,1990,金县台短水准干扰因素的剖析及海城地震前形变异常可靠性的研究,见:国家地震局科技监测司,地震监测与预报方法清理成果汇编——大地形变分册,86～92,北京:地震出版社。
孙玉军、李杰、曹建玲等,2008a,深部洞室中微小温度年度变化足以造成地应变年度变化,地震学报,30(5),464～473。
孙玉军、李杰、曹建玲等,2008b,山东泰安台温度年变化对地应变与地倾斜影响的模拟研究,见:中国地震局地震预测研究所等,中国地震预报探索,460～466,北京:地震出版社。
王若柏、谢觉民、薄万举,2000,跨断层的定点地壳形变研究及发展前景,国际地震动态,(6),5～9。
吴大铭、韩大宇,1983,用多道维纳滤波方法处理唐山地震前后的大灰厂三种形变资料,地震学报,5(1),31～38。
谢觉民、华彩虹,1999,唐山地震发震断层动态及其与较强晚期余震的关系,地震地质,21(1),18～20。
游丽兰、刘大杰、黄加纳等,1992,跨断层测量资料的卡尔曼滤波数学模型,中国地震,8(3),44～52。
朱守彪、张培震、石耀霖,2010,华北盆地强震孕育的动力学机制研究,地球物理学报,53(6),1409～1417。
张晁军、石耀霖、马丽,2005,慢地震研究中的一些问题,中国科学院研究生院学报,22(3),258～269。
Garavaglia M,Moro G D,Zadro M,2000,Radon and tilt measurements in a seismic area:Temperature effects,Phys ChemEarth,25(3),233～237.
Matsumoto N,Kitagawa G,Roeloffs E A,2003a,Hydrological response to earthquakes in the Haibara well,central Japan-I,Groundwater level changes revealed using state space decomposition of atmospheric pressure,rainfall and tidal responses,Geophy J Int,155,885～898.
Matsumoto N,Roeloffs E A,2003b,Hydrological response to earthquakes in the Haibara well,central Japan-II,Possiblemechanism inferred fromtime-varying hydraulic properties,Geophy J Int,155,899～913.
Moro G D,Zadro M,1998,Subsurface deformations induced by rainfall and atmospheric pressure:Tilt strain measurements in theItaly seismic area,Earth Planet Sci Lett,164(1),193～203.
Zadro M,Plenizio E,Ebblin C,et al,1987,Influence of groundwater table level variations and of rainfall on tilting in the Friuliarea,Italy,Acta Geophysica Polonica,35,323～338.
曹建玲、石耀霖,2005,地表温度年变化对地应力和地倾斜的影响,中国科学院研究生院学报,22(3),303～308。
黄建平、石耀霖、李文静,2010,从跨断层短基线观测计算地应变的方法探讨——以唐山台地形变数据为例,地球物理学报,53(5),1118～1126。
黄建平、李文静,2011,唐山台短水准、短基线数据的分段特征,地震,31(2),50～58。
胡卫建、张俊山、谢智等,2002,荷载对钻孔应变测值影响的实验及力学解析,地震,22(3),95～104。
金旭、陈晓冬、管彦武,2004,气候变化对浅层地温测量影响的改正,地球学报,25(5),579～582。
李延兴、徐杰、陈聚忠等,2006,邢台、渤海、海城和唐山大地震震中区现今应变场的基本特征,华北地震科学,24(2),36～39。
刘权威,1996,地壳形变干扰因素有效性的判别,测绘学报,25(2),95～103。
卢良玉、徐心同、马秉圭,1990,金县台短水准干扰因素的剖析及海城地震前形变异常可靠性的研究,见:国家地震局科技监测司,地震监测与预报方法清理成果汇编——大地形变分册,86～92,北京:地震出版社。
孙玉军、李杰、曹建玲等,2008a,深部洞室中微小温度年度变化足以造成地应变年度变化,地震学报,30(5),464～473。
孙玉军、李杰、曹建玲等,2008b,山东泰安台温度年变化对地应变与地倾斜影响的模拟研究,见:中国地震局地震预测研究所等,中国地震预报探索,460～466,北京:地震出版社。
王若柏、谢觉民、薄万举,2000,跨断层的定点地壳形变研究及发展前景,国际地震动态,(6),5～9。
吴大铭、韩大宇,1983,用多道维纳滤波方法处理唐山地震前后的大灰厂三种形变资料,地震学报,5(1),31～38。
谢觉民、华彩虹,1999,唐山地震发震断层动态及其与较强晚期余震的关系,地震地质,21(1),18～20。
游丽兰、刘大杰、黄加纳等,1992,跨断层测量资料的卡尔曼滤波数学模型,中国地震,8(3),44～52。
朱守彪、张培震、石耀霖,2010,华北盆地强震孕育的动力学机制研究,地球物理学报,53(6),1409～1417。
张晁军、石耀霖、马丽,2005,慢地震研究中的一些问题,中国科学院研究生院学报,22(3),258～269。
Garavaglia M,Moro G D,Zadro M,2000,Radon and tilt measurements in a seismic area:Temperature effects,Phys ChemEarth,25(3),233～237.
Matsumoto N,Kitagawa G,Roeloffs E A,2003a,Hydrological response to earthquakes in the Haibara well,central Japan-I,Groundwater level changes revealed using state space decomposition of atmospheric pressure,rainfall and tidal responses,Geophy J Int,155,885～898.
Matsumoto N,Roeloffs E A,2003b,Hydrological response to earthquakes in the Haibara well,central Japan-II,Possiblemechanism inferred fromtime-varying hydraulic properties,Geophy J Int,155,899～913.
Moro G D,Zadro M,1998,Subsurface deformations induced by rainfall and atmospheric pressure:Tilt strain measurements in theItaly seismic area,Earth Planet Sci Lett,164(1),193～203.
Zadro M,Plenizio E,Ebblin C,et al,1987,Influence of groundwater table level variations and of rainfall on tilting in the Friuliarea,Italy,Acta Geophysica Polonica,35,323～338.
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