四川芦山“4.20”地震区降水分布及变化特征研究
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摘要
利用四川芦山"4.20"地震区15个气象站1961~2012年的逐日降水观测资料和统计诊断方法,较为细致的分析了芦山地震区52年来多时间尺度降水分布及变化特征。结果表明,(1)芦山地震区年降水量平均为1265.3mm,远高于全国和四川省平均年降水量,震区降水量呈明显的东高西低的空间分布特征,在1965年、1972年、2000年左右存在突变点,2000年后降水量呈较为明显的减少趋势,降水量年代际下降率为35mm/10a,年降水量主要存在8~14a的周期振荡,该尺度周期主要存在于20世纪70年代至21世纪初,特别在12a表现较为明显。(2)根据芦山地震烈度划分的三级影响区的降水分布表现为不同的气候特征。累计大-暴雨日数的极大值出现的时间受地形和位置的影响有一定的区域差异,40%以上的大雨日数集中出现在7下旬至8月中旬,各站均在7月第6侯达到最大,暴雨日数也呈一定下降趋势和周期性特征。文中提供的详实的多尺度降水分布和变化特征资料,对于芦山震区利用天气气候规律规划和实施灾后重建有着重要基础指导作用。
The observed data from 1961 to 2012 which has 15 stations and the method of climate diagnosing are used to investigate the features of the"4·20"Lushan earthquake area multiple time scale of precipitation during the 52 years.There are some conclusions:(1)the annual precipitation of Lushan earthquake area is 1265.3mm,which is much higher that of Sichuan province and national level.The annual precipitation is downtrend.Both 1965 and 1972 have remarkable mutants,in addition,the mutant happened in 2000 begins a downward tendency,the rate of the annual precipitation is 35mm/10a.There is a 8-14a period oscillation from 1970s to 2000,the 12a is the most remarkable period oscillation.(2)The paper chose seismic intensity as the criterion to divide the earthquake area into three zones,each of the zone has local characteristics.According to geography and location,the maximal value of precipitation of heavy and rainstorm days differ from others,more than forty percents of heavy and rainstorm days center on late July and middle August,all of stations reach the maximal value in the late of July,the days of the rainstorm is downtrend and.The distribution of precipitation and variation features of"4·20"Lushan earthquake area are meaningful to the plan and execute the post-heavy earthquake reconstruction.
The observed data from 1961 to 2012 which has 15 stations and the method of climate diagnosing are used to investigate the features of the"4·20"Lushan earthquake area multiple time scale of precipitation during the 52 years.There are some conclusions:(1)the annual precipitation of Lushan earthquake area is 1265.3mm,which is much higher that of Sichuan province and national level.The annual precipitation is downtrend.Both 1965 and 1972 have remarkable mutants,in addition,the mutant happened in 2000 begins a downward tendency,the rate of the annual precipitation is 35mm/10a.There is a 8-14a period oscillation from 1970s to 2000,the 12a is the most remarkable period oscillation.(2)The paper chose seismic intensity as the criterion to divide the earthquake area into three zones,each of the zone has local characteristics.According to geography and location,the maximal value of precipitation of heavy and rainstorm days differ from others,more than forty percents of heavy and rainstorm days center on late July and middle August,all of stations reach the maximal value in the late of July,the days of the rainstorm is downtrend and.The distribution of precipitation and variation features of"4·20"Lushan earthquake area are meaningful to the plan and execute the post-heavy earthquake reconstruction.
引文
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[15]Yu R C,Li W,Zhang X H,et al.Climatic features related to Eastern China summer rainfalls in the NCAR CCM3[J].Adv Atmos Sci,2000,17(4):503-518.
[16]Li Y Q,Li D J,Yang S,et al.Characteristics of the precipitation over the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau[J].Meteorology and Atmospheric Phtsics,2010,106(1-2):49-56.
[17]Chen Haoming,Yu Rucong,Li Jian,et al.Why Nocturnal Long-Duration Rainfall Presents an Eastward-Delayed Diurnal Phase of Rainfall down the Yangtze River Valley[J].Journal of Climate,2010,23(4):905-916.
[18]张友谊.雅安市雨城区滑坡降雨临界值研究[J].铁道建筑,2009,(4):70-72.
[2]彭贵康,柴复新,曾庆存,等.“雅安天漏”研究I:天气分析[J].大气科学,1994,18(4):466-475.
[3]彭贵康,李志友,柴复新.雅安地形与降水的气候特征[J].高原气象,1984,4(3):230-240.
[4]李跃清,张晓春.“雅安天漏”研究进展[J].暴雨灾害,2011,30(4):289-295.
[5]周秋雪,李跃清.青藏高原东侧“雅安天漏”旱涝年降水特征[J].高原山地气象研究,2012,32(2):1-9.
[6]席官臣.雅安区域暴雨的气候特征[J].四川气象,1990,12(1):7-15.
[7]席官臣.雅安地区各县(市)暴雨的气候特征[J].四川气象,1990,12(1):39-51.
[8]龙从彬,李小川.用墨西哥帽小波函数研究雅安降水变化[J].四川气象,2007,27(4):1-4.
[9]吴泽,范广洲,周定文,等.近60年“雅安天漏”变化特征分析[J].成都信息工程学院学报,2012,27(1):63-70.
[10]房伟,钱正迪.1961-2010年雅安市暴雨气候特征及变化趋势分析[J].贵州气象,2012,36(4):22-23.
[11]Yeh T C.The circulation of the high troposphere over China in the winter of 1945-1946[J].Tellus,1950,2:173-183.
[12]Bolin B.On the influence of the Earth's orography on the westerlies[J].Tellus,1950,2:184-195.
[13]Xu X D,Lu C G,Shi X H,et al.World water tower.An atmospheric perspective[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2008,35:L20815.
[14]Li Yueqing,Gao Wenliang.Atmospheric Boundary Layer Circulation on the Eastern Edge of the Tibetan Plateau,China,in Summer[J].Arctic Antarctic,and Alpine Research,2007,39(4):708-713.
[15]Yu R C,Li W,Zhang X H,et al.Climatic features related to Eastern China summer rainfalls in the NCAR CCM3[J].Adv Atmos Sci,2000,17(4):503-518.
[16]Li Y Q,Li D J,Yang S,et al.Characteristics of the precipitation over the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau[J].Meteorology and Atmospheric Phtsics,2010,106(1-2):49-56.
[17]Chen Haoming,Yu Rucong,Li Jian,et al.Why Nocturnal Long-Duration Rainfall Presents an Eastward-Delayed Diurnal Phase of Rainfall down the Yangtze River Valley[J].Journal of Climate,2010,23(4):905-916.
[18]张友谊.雅安市雨城区滑坡降雨临界值研究[J].铁道建筑,2009,(4):70-72.
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